Also Abreu gets on base more then Manny and surpassed him by 10 runs last year. I dont see how thats gonna magically change this season.
a more realestic projection:
115R .300BA 30HR 100RBI(complete crapshoot, i know manny will finish with more based off guys ahead of him having much better OBA, but top of phillie lineup can improve, i hate "projecting" rbi totals, but playing it safe 100 is the best bet) 35+SB (Charlie Manuel has been quoted as saying he's a manager who will let his players 'run'. I dont see anything holding back Abreu from equaling last season's totals considering he was one of the most successful base stealers last year based off percentage)
The previous two years Abreu has hit 20 HRs. After one year of CBB I'm not ready to go into a draft bidding on the fact that Abreu will hit 30. He might but I'm not going to pay for it. Abreu scoring 120 Runs again is something else I'm not willing to pay for.
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
If you are in a roto league, it's Abreu without a doubt. Yes, he will lag a little behind Manny in 4 of the cats, but his 30-0 lead in SBs will do much more for you in the standings than Manny's 10 more HRs and handful more run production.
I had Manny last year and he was great to have but REALLY tailed off in the second half. I guess that means he's not on 'roids? I do like Abreu's prospects and the nice balance of power & speed he brings. I'm also at pick 9/12 so I am anticipating a shot at one or the other or maybe both, if some SP have gone and some of the folks who don't do as much 'homework' in our 50% Cub fan league go for Prior in those rounds which, while suprising in light of the rankings, bullpen issues, etc, would not suprise me in our particular league. As a Prior jersey owner, it pains me not to have a good shot at him but I am much more interested in the hitters in those rounds in that position.
Good question. I can't really answer it right now as I'm back and forth between 'Get Manny again and trade him for some monster around the allstar break' or just playing it safe and getting Abreu. Both would be VERY nice!! I am thinking Manny is a more conservative pick and will continue to rake in the 1st half this year so, if I were drafting RIGHT now, I'd go for him.
Abreu, and it not just because I like the Phils. The ballpark, the new manager, he gives you five scoring areas. and the line-up, he's a lefty. I just think he will produce and out produce most players.
"I am, who I become; therefore success is not a destination, but rather a never ending journey."
Thanks PhillyFan!! I do agree that the departure of the black clouds of the Lithium Larry era COULD give the Phillies a suprising boost and Abreu might REALLY have a good year. That's why this is such a hard question! I am probably going to be back and forth until the draft.
I would go w/ Abreu also. Especially if in the late first or early second (if I should be so lucky). My reasoning is pretty much same as Phillyfan's, but also consider Thome will be more used to NL pitching and should post improved numbers from last year (barring injury of course). I had both players last year - Abreu was an untouchable while Manny was involved in a number of potential trades.
Just my $.02 worth...
Attack them when unprepared, make your move when they do not expect it. - Sun Tzu