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Auction inflation...

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Auction inflation...

Postby The Spiders » Sat Feb 19, 2005 12:59 am

I'm wondering if anyone can attest to a kind of draft auction inflation I am anticipating in my league's upcoming draft.

This is the third year of our league's existence (14 teams, 5x5 league). Last year was the first year we drafted auction style with each team operating under a $260 spending budget. Most of the superstars (ARod, Vlad, Soriano) went in the $40-45 range.

This year, each team may retain 4 players for a 10% increase in their draft price from last year.

Our commisioner has asked for everyone to whittle their choices down to 6 before declaring the final 4 keepers.

In this whittling down process, I am seeing that pretty much everyone is taking the route of retaining their budget buys--guys they drafted for $1-5. I don't have a lot of cheap players; my current keeper list is Manny $40 (prices reflect the 10% increase) D Lee $28, Mulder $22, Pudge $22, Sabathia $11, and Casey Blake $2.

What I am anticipating as a result of this being our first draft with keepers and with almost every team keeping their bargain buys, is that the price for the superstars is going to go way up...I'm thinking the top guys are going to go for $45-50 this year--and as a result I would be smarter to keep Manny rather than throw him back into the pool where I would surely not be able to re-draft him for $40.

Is this faulty reasoning? Has anyone experienced a draft in which the first year of keepers elevated the prices of the superstars substantially? Should I follow the trend and only keep Blake and Sabathia rather than retain my higher priced guys?
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Postby daweasle » Sat Feb 19, 2005 2:02 am

thats a pretty good thought process - I think you are correct in your asssumption. The guy wh wins your league this year is probably the guy who sits back and gets the best bargains later in the draft.

If you can budget your money and resist the tempatation to bid one more dollar for that stud - you will be fine.

I'd recommend bidding every guy up to 80% of your projected value and then stopping.....and eventually - you will be stealing players left and right. (cause everyone else will spend all their money.)

either that or you will get a very good team at 80% of the price.
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Re: Auction inflation...

Postby swarmee » Sat Feb 19, 2005 4:30 pm

With only four keepers per team, the draft inflation for your league should not be more than 10% or so, and therefore you should not keep Manny at $40. If you only have one good guy to keep, you're better off just keeping him. On your team, I would only keep Casey Blake if you're in a 12-team league. But I'd check to see if you can trade any of your high salary players pre-draft to people who have more than 4 good keepers for someone valued less than his projected value.
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