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Dunn done?

Postby FarnsworthLESS » Fri Feb 18, 2005 7:58 pm

what should i make of this slugger?? I have been monitoring a couple of 14 person 5x5 h2h leagues and his status is erratic...

2.3 :-? (with guys like sheff, r. johnson, ortiz, and thome available)
5.10 (steal??)
4.7

where is the most intelligent choose for this high risk player?

thanks B-)


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Postby Tavish » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:02 pm

Well the 5.10 would definitely be the most intelligent spot to take him....


I wouldn't expect him to make it too far into the 4th round in most drafts. Too high for my blood.
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Postby wrveres » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:04 pm

Tavish wrote:I wouldn't expect him to make it too far into the 4th round in most drafts. Too high for my blood.


agreed ;-D
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:04 pm

I would be ok with drafting him in the late 4th or 5th round. But, you better have a .330 guy to balance out that .260 average.
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Postby quietstorm » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:16 pm

His average will kill you in roto leagues. He'll also get high amounts of walks, increasing his value in BB leagues; and high amounts of SOs, if you count those.

He's great in point leagues, though.

I haven't got my point league projections set up yet, but Baseball Prospectus has Dunn with a breakout rate of 55.8% (breakout is a 20% improvement in VORP), with an improvement rate of 86.5%. They've got him hitting .270 with 35 HR.

Personally, I'm thinking something like 3rd or 4th round in point leagues; more like 5th or 6th in roto leagues.
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Postby bleach168 » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:20 pm

Dunn will hit 35 homers in his sleep. I can't believe they have him projected so low.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:22 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:I would be ok with drafting him in the late 4th or 5th round. But, you better have a .330 guy to balance out that .260 average.


While it's a little high for a standard league IMO, I'd tend to agree. The AVG is what scares me away, but if you count OBP or BB's he's a lot more valuable obviously.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:34 pm

SaintsOfTheDiamond wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote:I would be ok with drafting him in the late 4th or 5th round. But, you better have a .330 guy to balance out that .260 average.


While it's a little high for a standard league IMO, I'd tend to agree. The AVG is what scares me away, but if you count OBP or BB's he's a lot more valuable obviously.
Dunn is a guy that really depends on your league settings and who you have on your team already. If you have like Vlad and another .300 hitter you can take the hit to average. And if you count OBP instead hes great. But, if you get negative points for Ks, thats an ouch.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:42 pm

Dunn is too unpredictable. He obviously has tremendous power but also has huge, gaping holes. Prototypical mistake pitch hitter. He'll punish you if you make a mistake. But you can also get him out very easily. While 04 was a big season, I just don't believe that he will improve until he cuts down on Ks which I doubt will happen any time soon.
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Postby quietstorm » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:45 pm

Yoda wrote:Dunn is too unpredictable. He obviously has tremendous power but also has huge, gaping holes. Prototypical mistake pitch hitter. He'll punish you if you make a mistake. But you can also get him out very easily. While 04 was a big season, I just don't believe that he will improve until he cuts down on Ks which I doubt will happen any time soon.

Dunn's "huge, gaping hole" is his plate discipline. He's too patient. He lets bad pitchers go by, and gets a lot of them called as strikes.

Personally, I expect 40 HR or so.
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