looptid wrote:Hafner was 27 last year. Morneau was 23.
In a keeper league, I would take Morneau. Hafner had an amazing year last season, but it is probably right around his peak value, where Morneau should continue to progress for the next few seasons. Hafner is in the middle of typical peak years for hitters (27-31), while Morneau is still a few years out.
As for this season, I don't see Morneau hitting for as high an average as Hafner (or putting up a comperable on-base percentage), but 35-plus homeruns are well within reason. Morneau hit a homerun in 6.7% of his plate apperances last season. If he gets 600 plate apperances and makes no improvement on last year's pace, it would round out to 41 dingers. If the Twins are smart and place Stewart, Ford, and Mauer in front of Morneau, a .380 OBP being the worst posted among that trio last season, Morneau should have plenty of men on base for those 35+ blasts. Of course there is no guarentee that Gardenhire won't do something stupid like place Jones and Hunter among the top three spots in the order.
Two words: Josh Phelps. You have to be real careful when you start extrapolating stats.
Morneau has been touted as one of the best hitters in the minors for the past few years, if not THE best hitter in the minors. Phelps was only touted because he was a catcher, and for a catcher, he puts up good numbers. Too bad he plays DH now.
"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"
"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
LBJackal wrote: Morneau has been touted as one of the best hitters in the minors for the past few years, if not THE best hitter in the minors. Phelps was only touted because he was a catcher, and for a catcher, he puts up good numbers. Too bad he plays DH now.
I am not comparing Phelps to Morneau. Morneau obviously is a better prospect and more likely will have a good career. What I am trying to point out is that you can't simply extrapolate a half season's worth of stats and expect that player to perform at that level for an entire season. On an entirely different note, I think Phelps will be a pretty decent sleeper this season.
Hafner is the better, safer bet for 05. In a keeper, it's much closer but I still give Hafner the nod until Morneau shows that he can match Hafner's first full season stats.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
WittyC wrote: Plus, he had surgery in the offseason on his elbow (removing bone chips or something, but surgery is rarely a bonus).
I certainly wouldn't value Hafner over Morneau, but I could see Hafner's value being better since Morneau seems to be going earlier. If I had to pick one even up, though, Morneau would be my guy -- keeper or non!
Heh, surgery is usually a bonus because it means it wont come up again. Like tommy john surgery. And by the way, Johan had bone chips in his elbow removed last January, and look what happened?
nettles3Ball-star wrote:Any word as to whether Hafner is naturally that big and cut? I'm becoming wary of the superhero type physiques.
I read today actually that Haffner discovered something amazing this off-season, vegtables, and that his altered diet had him losing weight. Here is the blurb from today's Cleveland Plain Dealer.
"Pass the veggies:
Hafner discovered something unusual last season - vegetables.
"In spring training, I talked to our nutritionist," said Hafner, "and I started eating better"
The conversation opened his eyes.
"I used to be on what I called my caveman diet," said Hafner. "I'd go to all those steak buffets. But when I started eating vegetables, I lost about five or 10 pounds. I'd order a side of or broccli and my friends would go crazy"
I wonder if they sit around thinking this stuff up. " Hey Haff, here is a good one, tell the media you discovered you like veggies now and that you lost weight because of it. Or maybe tell them you changed your workout but are really only down 5 pounds, but that didn't work to well with Giambi last year"
I was suspect of Haffner before I read this news today. I hate being cynical like that but the guy looked like Road Warrior Hawk for petes sake.
Edited to add the article quote
Eternal vigilance is the price of integrity.
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