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Hafner versus Morneau

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Postby Pedantic » Fri Feb 18, 2005 7:25 pm

I'd take Hafner over Morneau, and I don't think it's particularly close.
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Postby looptid » Fri Feb 18, 2005 7:43 pm

Hafner was 27 last year. Morneau was 23.

In a keeper league, I would take Morneau. Hafner had an amazing year last season, but it is probably right around his peak value, where Morneau should continue to progress for the next few seasons. Hafner is in the middle of typical peak years for hitters (27-31), while Morneau is still a few years out.

As for this season, I don't see Morneau hitting for as high an average as Hafner (or putting up a comperable on-base percentage), but 35-plus homeruns are well within reason. Morneau hit a homerun in 6.7% of his plate apperances last season. If he gets 600 plate apperances and makes no improvement on last year's pace, it would round out to 41 dingers. If the Twins are smart and place Stewart, Ford, and Mauer in front of Morneau, a .380 OBP being the worst posted among that trio last season, Morneau should have plenty of men on base for those 35+ blasts. Of course there is no guarentee that Gardenhire won't do something stupid like place Jones and Hunter among the top three spots in the order.
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Postby dannahann » Fri Feb 18, 2005 7:47 pm

Here are the average projections I've found on the two:

Hafner: 493AB / 27HR / 99Ru / 91RBI / 2SB / 0.296AV / 0.913OPS
Morneau: 534AB / 31HR / 98Ru / 82RBI / 0SB / 0.276AV / 0.863OPS

Personally, I like Hafner to better these projections by a bit and I'd rather have Hafner in 2005. In a keeper it's closer IMO, and Morneau just might be the pick.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 18, 2005 7:52 pm

looptid wrote:Hafner was 27 last year. Morneau was 23.

In a keeper league, I would take Morneau. Hafner had an amazing year last season, but it is probably right around his peak value, where Morneau should continue to progress for the next few seasons. Hafner is in the middle of typical peak years for hitters (27-31), while Morneau is still a few years out.

As for this season, I don't see Morneau hitting for as high an average as Hafner (or putting up a comperable on-base percentage), but 35-plus homeruns are well within reason. Morneau hit a homerun in 6.7% of his plate apperances last season. If he gets 600 plate apperances and makes no improvement on last year's pace, it would round out to 41 dingers. If the Twins are smart and place Stewart, Ford, and Mauer in front of Morneau, a .380 OBP being the worst posted among that trio last season, Morneau should have plenty of men on base for those 35+ blasts. Of course there is no guarentee that Gardenhire won't do something stupid like place Jones and Hunter among the top three spots in the order.


Two words: Josh Phelps. You have to be real careful when you start extrapolating stats.
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Postby looptid » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:04 pm

Morneau had been destorying AAA pitchers for two seasons, and was a bit overdue by the time the Twins parted ways with Dougie Baseball to turn the first base job over to him. You have a very valid point, and to be honest, I haven't followed the career of Phelps very closely, but I still like Morneau's professional track record.
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Postby Rico The Retard » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:14 pm

id take Morneau over Hafner just by a little this season and by a lot for future years after this season
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Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:22 pm

looptid wrote:Morneau had been destorying AAA pitchers for two seasons, and was a bit overdue by the time the Twins parted ways with Dougie Baseball to turn the first base job over to him. You have a very valid point, and to be honest, I haven't followed the career of Phelps very closely, but I still like Morneau's professional track record.


Josh Phelps was a top catching prospect in all of baseball and in 02, he destroyed AAA pitching at age 24 much like Morneau. In 265 ABs, he hit 24 HR, 64 RBI, .292 AVG, 1.038 OPS.

He then put up these numbers with the Jays in the second half:

74 G, 265 AB, 41 R, 20 2B, 15 HR, 58 RBI, .309 AVG, .362 OBP, .562 SLG, .924 OPS.

Do I think Morneau will end up better than Phelps? Yes. But I advise you to keep your pants on when you start extrapolating and slice/dice numbers.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:29 pm

I think these guys are close, but I like Hafner by just a bit because the lineup and park is better.
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Postby hybrid » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:37 pm

Phelps though has never had the same plate discipline. Phelps is more a slugger with power, while Morneau is a hitter with power.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:48 pm

hybrid wrote:Phelps though has never had the same plate discipline. Phelps is more a slugger with power, while Morneau is a hitter with power.


You completely missed the point. I am not comparing Phelps to Morneau. I'm merely pointing out that there are plenty of hitters who put up ridiculously good minor league numbers and make a tremendous splash to start their major league career. Morneau is obviously going to be better but you can't start extrapolating numbers based on half a season of experience.

Also, more established players, who actually made steady progress in the majors like Hafner has, are MUCH easier to predict and are safer bet.
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