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Adam Eaton this year's Ben Sheets?

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Adam Eaton this year's Ben Sheets?

Postby Carey Saders » Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:43 pm

I really, really like what I see in this guy. His WHIP went down last year but his ERA went up (mostly due to some bad outtings). My gut tells me he's on the verge of breaking out. I find he compares with Ben Sheets in terms of development.

Let's look at a side by side comparison:

Eaton 2003:
IP 183.0/H 173/HR 20/BB 68/K 146/ERA 4.08/WHIP 1.32/BAA .246
Sheets 2002:
IP 216.2/H 237/HR 21/BB 70/K 170/ERA 4.15/WHIP 1.42/BAA .281

Eaton 2004:
IP 199.1/H 204/HR 28/BB 52/K 153/ERA 4.61/WHIP 1.28/BAA .266
Sheets 2003:
IP 220.2/H 232/HR 29/BB 43/K 157/ERA 4.45/WHIP 1.25/BAA .268

Pretty similar stats, huh? So will Eaton continue to parralel Sheets' development and have a break out year? My gut tells me yes.
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Re: Adam Eaton this year's Ben Sheets?

Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:56 pm

Carey Saders wrote:I really, really like what I see in this guy. His WHIP went down last year but his ERA went up (mostly due to some bad outtings). My gut tells me he's on the verge of breaking out. I find he compares with Ben Sheets in terms of development.

Let's look at a side by side comparison:

Eaton 2003:
IP 183.0/H 173/HR 20/BB 68/K 146/ERA 4.08/WHIP 1.32/BAA .246
Sheets 2002:
IP 216.2/H 237/HR 21/BB 70/K 170/ERA 4.15/WHIP 1.42/BAA .281

Eaton 2004:
IP 199.1/H 204/HR 28/BB 52/K 153/ERA 4.61/WHIP 1.28/BAA .266
Sheets 2003:
IP 220.2/H 232/HR 29/BB 43/K 157/ERA 4.45/WHIP 1.25/BAA .268

Pretty similar stats, huh? So will Eaton continue to parralel Sheets' development and have a break out year? My gut tells me yes.


I don't think he will take quite a leap as Sheets did in 04 but the chances of Eaton breaking out are very good. He gave up too many homers last year, a trend that should not continue given his home field. If he can keep the ball in the park, he can save at least a full run in his ERA.
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Postby Carey Saders » Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:57 pm

Yes, he did allow more homeruns. But his walks total went down too.
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Postby mikegp » Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:39 pm

Both Schmidt and Eaton had the same or similar surgery(I believe). Here are Schmidt's stats 2 seasons after his surgery. Now Schmidt is one of the top fantasy starters after a good 2003 season and an amazing 2004 season. Hopefully Eaton follow Schmidt's footsteps.

Eaton 2003:
IP 183.0/H 173/HR 20/BB 68/K 146/ERA 4.08/WHIP 1.32/BAA .246

Schmidt 2001
IP 150/H 138/HR 13/BB 61/K 142/ERA 4.07/WHIP 1.33/BAA .244

Eaton 2004:
IP 199.1/H 204/HR 28/BB 52/K 153/ERA 4.61/WHIP 1.28/BAA .266

Schmidt 2002
IP 185.1/H 148/HR 15/BB 73/K 196/ERA 3.45/WHIP 1.19/BAA .218
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Postby ScurvyDog » Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:49 pm

WOW! It's like the Lincoln penny - too cool!

I think Peavy has a better at pulling up the Sheets :-D !
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Postby LumberJack5 » Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:56 pm

Honestly I think these are pretty bad comparisons. Yes Eaton is a breakout canidate but both Sheets and Schmidt gained velocity on their fastball after their surgery which helped them breakout. Their stuff in essance got better in the middle of their career. Eaton who throws 90-93, sometimes he can hit 94-95. If he could get a consisent 95 mph fastball like Sheets and Schmidt then I think he would have a better chance at breaking out. Eaton has a great park to pitch in and I think he will have his best season ever but I wouldnt look for him to put up Sheets/Schmidt #'s. Sheets #'s last year were off the charts, 264 K's, WHIP of 0.98. To expect numbers like that out of Eaton is crazy. I would expect Eaton to breakout but not to become the K pitchers than Sheets and Schimdt have become.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 18, 2005 6:45 pm

LumberJack5 wrote:Honestly I think these are pretty bad comparisons. Yes Eaton is a breakout canidate but both Sheets and Schmidt gained velocity on their fastball after their surgery which helped them breakout. Their stuff in essance got better in the middle of their career. Eaton who throws 90-93, sometimes he can hit 94-95. If he could get a consisent 95 mph fastball like Sheets and Schmidt then I think he would have a better chance at breaking out. Eaton has a great park to pitch in and I think he will have his best season ever but I wouldnt look for him to put up Sheets/Schmidt #'s. Sheets #'s last year were off the charts, 264 K's, WHIP of 0.98. To expect numbers like that out of Eaton is crazy. I would expect Eaton to breakout but not to become the K pitchers than Sheets and Schimdt have become.


Sheets gained velocity on his fastball after surgery? When was this?

Eaton won't pull a Sheets but he should post signifcantly better stats in 05 than he did in 04.
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Postby LumberJack5 » Sat Feb 19, 2005 12:14 am

Yoda wrote:Sheets gained velocity on his fastball after surgery? When was this?


Did you never see Sheets pitch last year? He was hitting 99 on the gun at times. And was consistently 95-97. Before his surgery he relied alot more on his great hook.
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Postby quietstorm » Sat Feb 19, 2005 12:37 am

Breakout: 13.9%
Improvement: 42.3%
ERA: 4.18
----

The PECOTA numbers on Eaton.
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Postby Yoda » Sat Feb 19, 2005 3:42 am

LumberJack5 wrote:
Yoda wrote:Sheets gained velocity on his fastball after surgery? When was this?


Did you never see Sheets pitch last year? He was hitting 99 on the gun at times. And was consistently 95-97. Before his surgery he relied alot more on his great hook.


What is the surgery Sheets had again? Starting in his Minor League days in 00, he's started 27, 27, 34, 34, and 34. So unless I am missing something, Sheets did not gain velocity after his 'surgery'.
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