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Postby Amazinz » Fri Feb 18, 2005 3:02 pm

Let's say your league drafts 12 1B and 60 SPs. Take the value of the 12th 1B as your baseline and subtract it from the value of all 1B. The 12th 1B is valued at 0, those below him have negative values and vice versa. Do they same for all positions and then compare them.
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Postby Amazinz » Fri Feb 18, 2005 3:03 pm

Also read this: http://www.footballguys.com/bryantvbd.htm

It is a fantasy football article but it translates perfectly to fantasy baseball points leagues. It explaims the ideas of VBD very well.
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Postby ironman » Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:03 pm

Amazinz wrote:Also read this: http://www.footballguys.com/bryantvbd.htm

It is a fantasy football article but it translates perfectly to fantasy baseball points leagues. It explaims the ideas of VBD very well.


Cool, thanks Amazinz. ;-D
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Postby Skippyoz » Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:20 pm

Amazinz wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Amazinz wrote:There is late round value for savvy drafters at every position. ;-D


true - but doesnt that mean that position scarcity isnt a good concept to use when drafting then?

When drafting no but I still believe you have to take it into account when evaluating player values. If you go by straight value Tejada is not a 1st round pick. Does anyone really agree with that? I think value over baseline just supports what most of know instinctively. And it really helps and comes into play on the middle to late round players where it is less obvious.


Going by straight value I think Tejada is definitely a first round pick, late first round. You get a guy who
1. Played 159 games 6 seasons in a row
2. Recorded at least 600 AB 5 seasons in a row
3. Has an average of 103 R in the past 6 seasons
4. Has hit over 200 hits twice in the past three years
5. Went for 40+ doubles the past two years (30+ the four years prior to that)
6. Carries an average of 31 HR the past 5 years
7. Hits an average of 116 RBI the four years prior to last year's absurd 150 RBI season
8. A declining trend in K's since 2000
9. 38 steals and 8 times caught stealing in the past 5 years. An average of 7 SB a year.
10. He's hit over .300 twice in the past three years.

Then, he plays in a nice hitters ballpark and should have Sosa/Javy/Palmeiro/Mora/Gibbons protecting him, with Brian Roberts leading off.

Thats what I want in a first rounder. Consistency and production. He has almost no question marks.

When you throw in the SS eligibility, he goes to #5 for me.
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Postby Mordraken » Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:20 pm

Amazinz wrote:Also read this: http://www.footballguys.com/bryantvbd.htm


I'm a big follower of Byrant's ideas, but also have a very hard time applying them to baseball. Not so much from a straight point perspective (like ironman has) but from a WHIP, ERA, OBP and SLG perspective and especially from a SB perspective. For example - a guy who steals 20 bases compared to the average guy who steals 4 bases can't really be compared to a guy who hits 50 home runs compared to a guy who hits an average 10 can he? And then what about the guy who steals 50 bases... is his value increased like someone that would hit 100 home runs?

That all said, I do "bump up" my valuations of positional players where the pool is not that deep, but I would put more weight to potential than scarcity. For example - if trying to decide between a highly touted OF and an established catcher with exactly the same projections (say 60 R / 80 RBI / 15 HR / 5 SB / .280) I would weight the younger/more "prospect" more than the established player at a weaker position. However, given that they were both established players, I would take the catcher.

Drafts go to fluidly to really over-plan anyway....
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Postby Amazinz » Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:41 pm

Skippyoz wrote:Going by straight value I think Tejada is definitely a first round pick, late first round.

Most of the details your describing are the factors that go into projecting not the mathematical evaluation. I don't disagree with anything you said but (based on my projections) if you just line up stat lines regardless of position Tejada is not a first-round hitter. Also, understand that I'm playing Devil's Advocate to prove a point and I'm not trying to suggest that Tejada is not a 1st round pick. He mostly certainly is.

Skippyoz wrote:When you throw in the SS eligibility, he goes to #5 for me.

Aye, there's the rub. :-D
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:45 pm

this article was posted before. the problem with it is that he hasnt adequately described his methods, thus it isnt possible to make any conclusions from his analysis.


When we did this analysis on the many fantasy leagues, we tried drafting based on inflating prices for players at weak positions and we did it with perfect hindsight, knowing exactly how players would perform. We even knew, with perfect hindsight, exactly how weak each of the positions really were. We had the computer simulate billions of drafts using these many leagues of data and with a third of the teams doing absolutely perfect position scarcity analysis and valuation and the rest of the teams ignoring it. Even with perfect hindsight, the position scarcity teams dramatically suffered in the standings, often ending up with middle-of-the-road teams that got reliable production out of the weak-hitting positions like catcher and second base, but suffering overall because it either had to try to find bargains at the good-hitting positions or because it ended up paying more for the production of the 20 home run catcher as an opposing team paid for the 20 home run outfielder.


i would like to know exactly what he means when he says "doing absolutely perfect position scarcity analysis and valuation." he has shown that the inflated prices HE used would result in less production from the team. would the results have been different if he calculated the inflated values differently (i.e. something lower than what he used but more than uninflated value)? i would have like to have seen him use an iterative process to try to force out a 'perfectly inflated value' (i.e. repeat the drafts with different inflated values until you arrive at an inflated value that results in a position scarcity based team winning). when you already establish that an inflated value is ineffective, there is no need to run billions (hard to believe) of simulations using the same wrong number. if you arent able to force out a perfectly inflated number, then position scarcity doesnt exist. it seems illogical for him to call the value perfectly inflated and then have it not work. if it is perfectly inflated then it works. if a perfectly inflated value doesnt exists, then position scarcity doesnt exist.
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Postby Amazinz » Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:49 pm

Mordraken wrote:
Amazinz wrote:Also read this: http://www.footballguys.com/bryantvbd.htm


I'm a big follower of Byrant's ideas, but also have a very hard time applying them to baseball. Not so much from a straight point perspective (like ironman has) but from a WHIP, ERA, OBP and SLG perspective and especially from a SB perspective. For example - a guy who steals 20 bases compared to the average guy who steals 4 bases can't really be compared to a guy who hits 50 home runs compared to a guy who hits an average 10 can he?


For the ratios you need to come up with an improvement factor (how much does this player's ratio affect the overall team ratio). Once you do this than you can easily compare the ratios just like you do the cumulative stats. If you want more info on the actual algorithms do a search for BAImp and ERAImp. There have been a few long discussions on it recently.

As for the second question I believe you can do that you that it's just not as easy as it is in football. You need to weight all of the categories that you are evaluating the player by. SBs are more valuable than HRs so how much so in your league? Than you can compare each stat to it's baseline and produce a value for each player. These are the "overall points" you see in auction dollar rankings like RotoTimes. Once you get the hard part done than it's just like ranking football players.
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Postby joshheines » Fri Feb 18, 2005 6:22 pm

Hogwash, position scarcity works, but you have to also use it to your advantage to get the most out of it. Let's begin with a premise and a political analogy.

A home run is a home run, whether the catcher hits the home run or whether the 1B hits it. Sure, looking at simple numbers 1=1, but ah ha, it's not true, not at all.

Now, here's the political analogy. Think of elections, 1 person = 1 vote. But, when you vote, you aren't really voting on a national spectrum, your vote is broken down into sectors and districts, and your congressman or member of the electoral college makes a vote on your behalf. So, districts are drawn so that the same number of people are in each district (or as close as possible). So, what can we garner from the electoral arena?

When the baseline average is equal, 1=1. However, if we say one district has 100,000 people and only get 1 representative vote, that's not the same as the district that has 50,000 and gets 1 representative vote. Each district get's 1 vote, but quite clearly, it's not equal.

The same, applies to baseball, 1 hr equals 1 hr, but not really. I have the averages saved (according to my league parameters), but I'm too lazy too look them up and averages vary on league anyway so it's not completely helpful. But for the sake of argument a catcher will attain 65 runs, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 2 SB, and a .275 AVG. Conversely, an OF will get 90 runs, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 12 SB, and a .287 AVG. Instead of looking at the individual HR production, look at the plus/minus to the average production.

I argue that using the averages above (which as aforementioned are not wholly accurate), a catcher who attains 80 runs, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 2 SB, and .290 AVG is the same as an OF who gets 105 runs, 35 HR, 105 RBI, 12 SB, and .303 AVG. Why? The plus/minus are exactly the same. +15 runs, +10 HR, +15 RBI, +/- 0 SB, +.015 AVG. That's what important, performance above the mean. Your ultimate goal in fantasy baseball is to achieve above the mean, so evaluate your players on an +/- mean basis. It works with pitchers too, and if you adequately use coefficients you can nail down ratios.

However, knowing the mean basis is one thing, using it to your advantage is another. You can't go way out on a limb to grab your 2B or SS or C if you "feel" the player will be there later. That's simple drafting. If your perception is that player X is worth a 4th round pick, but player X in every mock you see is going in the late 6th or early 7th, don't take him in the 4th. Wait until at least the 5th round, and if possible, after examining the drafters between you and your next pick, wait until the 6th. Get the most bang for your buck.

I know it's a ramble, but position scarcity is real.
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Postby meataxe » Sat Feb 19, 2005 12:30 am

joshheines wrote:Hogwash, position scarcity works, but you have to also use it to your advantage to get the most out of it....Get the most bang for your buck.



Interesting analysis, nice work ;-D

I think the problem lies in the fact that position scarcity is adopted as a primary strategy by drafters. In order for position scarcity to be successful, it needs to be aligned with the principle of drafting for VALUE (which, if anything, is slightly more important). However, value is more than just the raw statistical output of any given player, it also should factor in the output of the rest of the players at the position.
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