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Francis or Kazmir?

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Postby LumberJack5 » Fri Feb 18, 2005 1:05 pm

2 words, Coors Field.

It's sad that such a good young pitcher will be ruined by the park that he pitches in. But really that will screw him up, the thin air will mess with his stuff and then he will try to change his mechanics to fix his stuff and then when he goes on the road he will still pitch bad. If I were the Rockies I would trade Francis to the Rangers or some team in desperate need of a young ace and ask for a good young hitter in return and would then just try to beat everyone 10-9.

Coors Field already messed up Mike Hampton and Jason Jennings. Theres no reason it wont do the same to Francis.

Go with Kazmir. Although as someone said in a draft Francis is alot better value. Kazmir is often picked too early.

Also, how is Francis more talented than Kazmir? Kazmir throws a 97 mph fastball with a nasty slider. Francis has solid stuff but its not viewed as good as Kazmir's. Ask most GMs and I think they will tell you Kazmir has better stuff.
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Postby tlef316 » Fri Feb 18, 2005 1:08 pm

as dumb as it sounds, kazmir is considered a slightly inferior prospect becauase he is small and has a violent motion. Francis is taller and should prve to be more durable. that said, kazmir is a better fantasy pick due to the coors factor
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Postby Carey Saders » Fri Feb 18, 2005 1:21 pm

In limited duty last year, Francis had a very a better home ERA (2.45) and WHIP (1.36) than on the road. Granted , he pitched only 11 innings at home but pitched a great game against the D-Backs in Coors:

6 IP, 7 hits, 1 solo homer, 8 Ks
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Postby joshheines » Fri Feb 18, 2005 1:34 pm

tlef316 wrote:as dumb as it sounds, kazmir is considered a slightly inferior prospect becauase he is small and has a violent motion. Francis is taller and should prve to be more durable. that said, kazmir is a better fantasy pick due to the coors factor


What reports do you read that has Francis as the superior prospect with more ceiling? He doesn't top 90 MPH and relies on his change and curve and deception. Francis is a #3 or #2 pitcher at best. Now that works great in the minors, but in the majors what top pitcher doesn't have a big-time fastball? Kazmir has a 97 MPH fastball, nasty slider, and a change that is quickly becoming a plus pitch. Now, two plus-plus pitches + plus pitch = #1 starter. The one thing missing from that equation is control. I'm not talking Greinke control, just not 4BB/9 control. Kazmir has the ability to be a #1 and has better stuff than any lefty in the minors and the ONLY player who might have better pure stuff is Felix Hernandez.

Kazmir's size is overhyped. At 6'0" and 170 lbs with room to grow and fill out as young as he is, he's already about the same size as guys like Peavy, Ollie Perez, Odalis Perez, Roy Oswalt, and Pedro.
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Postby tlef316 » Fri Feb 18, 2005 1:41 pm

francis is far safer. Kazmir's size, coupled with his violent motion makes him an injury risk. Im not saying its fair, but its the truth. Plus, there have been some concerns about kazmir's attitude(i seem to recall some rumblings coming out of the mets system)

Look, im not saying francis is better, but i think he could have the better career. Did you see francis at the future's game last year? the guy has very good stuff. i wouldnt be surprised if kazmir gets moved into a closer role at some point. Little guys often have trouble logging alot of innings.
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Fri Feb 18, 2005 1:43 pm

joshheines wrote:... in the majors what top pitcher doesn't have a big-time fastball?


Greg Maddux.

For this season, I believe Kazmir and Francis will end up with roughly similar numbers (except more K's for Kaz). Since Francis will go substantially later in most drafts, if at all, that makes him a better value.
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Postby joshheines » Fri Feb 18, 2005 1:50 pm

AKhomebrewer wrote:
joshheines wrote:... in the majors what top pitcher doesn't have a big-time fastball?


Greg Maddux.


Point taken, but it's a strict minority. Power pitchers, as a general rule, are your ace #1 guys. Kazmir's that guy, Francis is not. On stuff alone, like I said, Kazmir is a #1, Francis is a #3 or 2, at best. Couple that with the Coors effect. And couple that with the Rockies offense that has . . . Todd Helton and that's it.

For every Maddux there are ten: Johnsons, Santanas, Schillings, Sheets, Oswalts, Pedros, Priors, etc. That's my point.
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Postby tiger spit » Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:33 pm

kaz has 2 pitches, thats why many scouts sour on him. i think kaz will have instant impact but start to simmer when the AL hitters adjust to the 2 pitches.
francis pitches in coors so we all know how bad that is. i like him better than kazmir with away starts.
but overall i think kazmir will have slightly better numbers this year.

although, if francis was not on COL id take him before kazmir. easily.
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Postby stumpak » Fri Feb 18, 2005 6:14 pm

Don't forget about the miserable Colorado bullpen either.
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