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Beltran = Overrated

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Postby longbombers1 » Thu Feb 17, 2005 9:43 pm

LBJackal wrote:Shea is a much better park than Houston or Kauffman, I don't see the problem everybody else is seeing. Houston is a killer for HR (worst in the majors) and BA on lefties. So is Kauffman. Shea inflates BA for lefties. Yeah, his HR will be hurt by playing there, but not nearly as much as the were in Kauffman and MM Park last year. You can do a search for my name and Beltran and you'll find enough of my opinions, but just thought I'd add it here so people don't think going to Shea is going to hurt him compared to last season.

Look at his home/away numbers if you want. His away were much much better all around; power, average, and stolen bases. If he played all 159 games on the road last year, he'd have hit .305 with 45 HR and 51 SB's. Who are all the people saying he can't hit for power and average at the same time, again? But do I expect thsoe numbers? No, that's too small a sample size to project over a whole season. .295, 35 HR, and 50 SB's seems reasonable. With those numbers, I doubt anybody would top him in fantasy value. But you guys can continue to take A-Rod and Vlad over him in drafts, I won't mind especially if I have the #3 4 pick.


i dont know what you mean. MM is one of the best hitters parks (315 to left, 325 to right), so going to Shea with no lineup and a fairly deep park, not to mention the NY media like many others have already said, he is a mid 1st rounder
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Postby ajgnydc722 » Thu Feb 17, 2005 9:44 pm

LBJackal wrote:
The Kavorka wrote:I do however agree 100% with what your saying regarding Sheffield & Giambi. Sheffield lies through his teeth and gets a free pass because he produces and Giambi tells the truth and gets killed because he doesn't produce. It amazes me people don't see that.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Sheffield admit to using steroids while Giambi hasn't? Also I can't blame the Yankees for keeping Sheff around, he helps the team a lot, why would they get rid of him for breaching his contract (if that's even in his contract)???


Giambi did admit to it. He admitted it to the grand jury and then confirmed it. He came forward.

Sheffield and Bonds claim to 'not know' what they were taking. Then Sheff came out this week with comments like, "I'm not Jason Giambi," "I'm sick of being compared to him" and other ridiculous crap like that.

No, there's no proof that Sheff and Bonds knew what they were taking but if you believe them then your a damn fool. Yeah guys, it was flaxseed oil that you were taking...that makes sense... ;-7 Giambi is bashed the most and he's the only one who actually told the truth.
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Postby lesgrant » Thu Feb 17, 2005 10:07 pm

Giambi has never publicly admitted anything.

He was honest with the Grand Jury because he was under oath. He did not come forward and voluntarily say anything. He did so under threat of prosecution. Also, keep in mind that you're not supposed to know what he said in the first place because the record is sealed.

And on other fronts, how truthful was his 'parasite' last summer?

How about his '15' lbs wieght loss last spring training?
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Postby Transmogrifier » Thu Feb 17, 2005 10:20 pm

Guys, can we keep the posting to the topic at hand rather than the qualities of the posters?

Thanks.

And, Kavorka, welcome to the Cafe. Great name by the way.
I'm back. Sorta.

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Postby Tavish » Thu Feb 17, 2005 10:47 pm

In all likelihood Beltran will be locked into the #3 hole in the Mets lineup which should definitely increase his RBI chances. 115 RBI is definitely obtainable if the Mets get decent production out of the Matsui/Reyes/Reyes-DL Replacement spots. I would put R/RBI/BA between A-Rod and Beltran as a wash, A-Rod having an extra 5 HR over Beltran's extra 25 SB.
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:33 am

longbombers1 wrote:
LBJackal wrote:Shea is a much better park than Houston or Kauffman, I don't see the problem everybody else is seeing. Houston is a killer for HR (worst in the majors) and BA on lefties. So is Kauffman. Shea inflates BA for lefties. Yeah, his HR will be hurt by playing there, but not nearly as much as the were in Kauffman and MM Park last year. You can do a search for my name and Beltran and you'll find enough of my opinions, but just thought I'd add it here so people don't think going to Shea is going to hurt him compared to last season.

Look at his home/away numbers if you want. His away were much much better all around; power, average, and stolen bases. If he played all 159 games on the road last year, he'd have hit .305 with 45 HR and 51 SB's. Who are all the people saying he can't hit for power and average at the same time, again? But do I expect thsoe numbers? No, that's too small a sample size to project over a whole season. .295, 35 HR, and 50 SB's seems reasonable. With those numbers, I doubt anybody would top him in fantasy value. But you guys can continue to take A-Rod and Vlad over him in drafts, I won't mind especially if I have the #3 4 pick.


i dont know what you mean. MM is one of the best hitters parks (315 to left, 325 to right), so going to Shea with no lineup and a fairly deep park, not to mention the NY media like many others have already said, he is a mid 1st rounder


Park factors for lefthanded hitters (ranks in paranthesis):

MM Park: HR - 60, BA - 93 (Lowest in MLB; 2nd lowest in MLB)
Kauffman: HR - 75, BA - 96 (4th lowest in MLB, 5th lowest in MLB)
Shea: HR - 91, BA - 105 (24th lowest in MLB, 8th lowest in MLB)

So how does MM Park benefit him? And how is Shea such a bad fit for him??? This is the main argument people have but I really don't see where they're coming from.
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Postby ajgnydc722 » Fri Feb 18, 2005 3:34 pm

How accurate are those stats? Couldn't one team have more lefties on it than another, thus more homeruns?

Beltran is a swith hitter as well, just to throw that in.
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Postby LBJackal » Fri Feb 18, 2005 3:46 pm

It's from the Bill James Handbook, so it's not just a made up stat. Having more lefties wouldn't change the park factor. It takes into account how many HR's are hit on the road during Astro's games, and how many are hit at home. And James also split it up between lefties and righties.

And yes, Beltran does bat righthanded sometimes, but the only time that will affect him is playing at home against a lefty. It works out to about 15% of his AB's coming at home, batting right handed. The other 85% will come on the road where he had great success last year, or batting left-handed in Shea, which will inflate his BA and hurt his HR's.
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