i own beltran in our keeper league, and id obviously rather have him in yankee stadium(in fact, a picture of him in a yankee cap was my avatar for about a year) However, the more i think about it, him being a met is not that bad. He's gonna be hitting behind reyes and matsui, who should be very capable table setters if healthy. He'll have solid protection behind him in piazza, floyd and david wright.
Again, its not murderers row, but its certainly not worth lowering his value substantially. Shea is far from a bandbox, but he's gonna get his 30 HR and 100 RBI IMO. Im pretty sure that willy randolph is gonan turn him loose and let him run, so he should be a lock for 35-40 SB's again. He'll score 100 runs. None of these predictions are improbable. so the only question is his batting average. 2003, he hit .307. last year, he hit .267. If you slpit the diference, he hits .287, give or take a few points. Nothing about shea suggests this wont happen.
So, now we have a fairly durable player who is pretty much a lock to hit 25-30 HR, score and drive in 100 runs and steal 40 bases. Combine that with a very respectable .280 average, and its hard to see how you can justify not ranking him in the top 3 picks, maybe the top pick. Personally, i like pujols as # 1, but i've waivered on 2-4. If vlad was still stealing, it would be a no-brainer, but he isnt. If A-rod still had SS eligibility or could guarentee his numbers from texas, he'd be a consensus top 2 pick. However, none of those things are locks, so beltran's potential puts him at # 2 IMO.
Before the abreu-ites come in here, i dont believe he is going to repeat last year. i see his numbers falling around his 2003 stats, which leaves him out of this discussion.
welcome home andy