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Beltran = Overrated

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Beltran = Overrated

Postby ajgnydc722 » Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:28 pm

If Beltran had resigned in Houston, or went to another friendly lineup in a friendly ballpark, I might be able to see why people have him ranked at number 1 or 2 on their cheatsheets. But this guy goes to a fairly weak lineup in the Mets, in a bad hitter's park at Shea.

The guy has hit over 30 homers once in his career (last year) and spent most of his time in the bandbox in Houston. How many RBIs will he get on the Mets, when he barely clears 100 in a lineup consisting of Bagwell, Biggio, Berkman, Kent, etc? His steals are really the only thing that makes him appealing to me.

He's a great player, and is still a first round selection, but IMO, signing with the Mets knocked him down to a later 1st round pick. I don't see him doing much more than 30-100-.280 with 20-30 steals. That's very solid production, but not when you match it against Pujols, A-Rod, Vlad, etc.

Just my take on it...comments?
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Postby ajgnydc722 » Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:34 pm

Not to mention he has to deal with the NY media, and he doesn't seem like the type of guy who will fit in right away. He could be off to a slow start in NY like many players have in the past, again, hurting his overall production.
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Postby stumpak » Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:36 pm

I agree entirely. He is a great player people who put him down as #1 overrate him. Really, how big will the gap be between he and Abreu for 2005?
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:41 pm

Shea is a much better park than Houston or Kauffman, I don't see the problem everybody else is seeing. Houston is a killer for HR (worst in the majors) and BA on lefties. So is Kauffman. Shea inflates BA for lefties. Yeah, his HR will be hurt by playing there, but not nearly as much as the were in Kauffman and MM Park last year. You can do a search for my name and Beltran and you'll find enough of my opinions, but just thought I'd add it here so people don't think going to Shea is going to hurt him compared to last season.

Look at his home/away numbers if you want. His away were much much better all around; power, average, and stolen bases. If he played all 159 games on the road last year, he'd have hit .305 with 45 HR and 51 SB's. Who are all the people saying he can't hit for power and average at the same time, again? But do I expect thsoe numbers? No, that's too small a sample size to project over a whole season. .295, 35 HR, and 50 SB's seems reasonable. With those numbers, I doubt anybody would top him in fantasy value. But you guys can continue to take A-Rod and Vlad over him in drafts, I won't mind especially if I have the #3 4 pick.
Last edited by LBJackal on Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby tiger spit » Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:43 pm

he'll never hit 300. he tries to do too much so his avg. suffers.
this wont change in the place where careers go to die.
The New York Mets! :-B
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Postby NZF » Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:44 pm

Do a search. This has already been debated ad nauseum over the past month.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:45 pm

Im with LBJ - I think the move to the Mets lineup, the style they play, and the ballpark will all have a positive affect on Beltran - combined with peak age theory he's in my top 3 easily.
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Postby Mustangs989 » Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:46 pm

First of all, the actual HRindex for LH in Houston is 60 compared to 90 for Shea. A surprising difference that many don't know about. I realize he's a switch hitter but most of his AB will be as a lefthander....
Also... BAindex for LH in Houston is 93 compared to 105 at Shea. KC's stadium is at 75 and 96 respectively for HR and AVG. This leads me to believe his BA will actually increase, HR's will stay about the same. Only big question to me is how much he steals. If he gets to 45 or so then he could be the #1 fantasy player. I expect that to drop to around 30 or 35 with his new contract signing which is why I have him at #3 slightly behind Pujols and Vlad and clearly a tier ahead of the others.

BTW Here is the site I used to find the park factors.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:50 pm

Mustangs989 wrote:BTW Here is the site I used to find the park factors.


Same site I used... they got permission to use the info straight from the Bill James Handbook.
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Postby tool069c » Thu Feb 17, 2005 5:17 pm

If he signed with the yankees, you'de be praising him right now, and debating whether he or arod is #1. Either way arod and beltran are still behind pujols and vlad.
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