What's wrong with A-Rod??? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

What's wrong with A-Rod???

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri Feb 18, 2005 12:01 am

duckbillgates wrote:Why, oh, why do people keep projecting A-Rod to only have 15 steals next year? Those projections are crap. Pencil him in for 25.
I've heard the arguments about steals declining at his age and about his three-year averages.
None of them account for a simple fact. The Yankees let their stars run. A-Rod has a low caught-stealing rate. Always has. He's running more, he'll steal more. The stats point to this. People who say otherwise are talking gut feeling, not stats.
Now that i have that off my chest, i couldn't begin to imagine who is worth more in a league that complicated. I hate those leagues. They're a mess. I wouldn't get in one if you paid me.
Now that i have that off my chest, Randy Johnson should score about a million trillion points in that configuration. I thought it was nuts for Santana to go that early, but I can see why.
I think its unreasonable to think he'll steal 25. Before last year, he hadn't stolen that many since his 40/40 year. He should probably get around 20. .290 average, 35 some HR.
Image
CubsFan7724
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 6426
Joined: 19 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: AKA 34=Sweetness on FFC

Postby duckbillgates » Fri Feb 18, 2005 12:33 am

CubsFan7724 wrote: I think its unreasonable to think he'll steal 25. Before last year, he hadn't stolen that many since his 40/40 year. He should probably get around 20. .290 average, 35 some HR.


This illustrates my point. You're looking at his steal totals. It's a "can't see the forest for the trees" argument.
Instead, look at his stolen bases AND attempts for the past four years:
2001 18/21
2002 9/13
2003 17/20
2004 28/32

He had twelve more stolen base attempts last year than in 2003 and 19 more than 2002. He doesn't get caught much. Hence, he's good for more than usual with the Yankees.
You can't get stolen bases if you don't run. If you don't factor that in than your career trends are worthless.
That's why the projections of 15 steals are absurd, in my opinion. Someone would have to convince me that Torre is no longer going to give A-Rod the green light OR that A-Rod's caught-stealing rate is going to skyrocket. I don't see it happening. If he gets 30 attempts, he'll swipe 25 bags, methinks.
duckbillgates
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1216
Joined: 1 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: under a dead Ohio sky

Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri Feb 18, 2005 12:37 am

If he gets 30 attempts. Last years attempts were an abberation really. If he does it again this year, then all for him. But hes still not better then Pujols or Vlad. (Vlad will steal between 15-20, and beat him in average by 40 points, beat him in HR, R, and RBI.)
Image
CubsFan7724
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 6426
Joined: 19 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: AKA 34=Sweetness on FFC

Postby Kingctb27 » Fri Feb 18, 2005 2:03 am

I have him @ #4 behind Pujols, Beltran & Vladdy.....Not bad at all.
Kingctb27
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Eagle EyeLucky Ladders Champion
Posts: 7189
Joined: 11 Oct 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Golfing

Postby GSes » Fri Feb 18, 2005 3:10 am

he is Alex frickin Rodriguez.

This whole thing about him moving parks and thus his HR and avg go WAY DOWN is a bunch of BULLS***. :-D

He is Arod for gods sake and last season he had a "downb year" by not reaching 40HR and 300avg.

Arod started out real slow last season and then got on track.

If you don't take Arod wit the 1st or 2nd pick I think u are surely mistaking, I see him hitting 150 RBI this year. And for those people who think he won't steal this season like last, ur wrong.

Do you realise Arod went from the Rangers to the Yanks and his Stolen Bags went wayyyyyyy up

And Soriano went from Yanks to Rangers and his Bags went WAYYYYYYYYYY down.

You see what im getting at? NY runs, Arod will run in NY b/c they run a lot. Alex Rodriguez.

I believe Arod is the #1 pick, you just can't go wrong here.

120 Runs
45HR
150 RBI
20 SB
300 avg

Hitting in that lineup, the 150 rbi is not a stretch imo. the 45 HR is no problem, he has hit 55+ before. and dont even try to tell me that his park change will make him hit 20LESS Homers........no i dont think so.

Alex Rodriguez is the #1 pick over pujols,vlad,and beltran for these reasons

he has more power then beltran, and will still steal 20+ bases even though beltran will steal 35+. The 10-15 less SB's are more then made up for by him destroying beltran in RBI and most likely more homers.

He beats Vlad b/c i think their power numbers will be similar, vlad will hit for higher avg, but arod will steal more bases.

He beats pujols b/c pujols has that little foot problem and as small as that is, its big enough for me to not take him over arod,vlad, and beltran at this point in the spring.

So yes at this moment I would take Alex Rodriguez with the #1 overall pick, do I change that yes, many times I think hmm I like pujols #1 today. If only Arod still played Shortstop he would be the Consesis #1 pick like he is every year.

However this year he its not, and i agree pujols, vlad, and beltran are all right next to arod.

You can't go wrong taking any of those 4 guys with the #1 pick.
Image
GSes
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2498
Joined: 9 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Shadows

Postby HOOTIE » Fri Feb 18, 2005 3:43 am

GSes wrote:he is Alex frickin Rodriguez.

This whole thing about him moving parks and thus his HR and avg go WAY DOWN is a bunch of BULLS***. :-D



Arod started out real slow last season and then got on track.



Hitting in that lineup, the 150 rbi is not a stretch imo. the 45 HR is no problem, he has hit 55+ before. and dont even try to tell me that his park change will make him hit 20LESS Homers........no i dont think so.



You don't understand park effects then. Check out his home/road splits while in Texas, then last year. His road numbers were similiar, while his home numbers were way off. It's not a fluke.

Arod actually hit more hrs, and had a better ops, the 1st half.

150 rbis is a dream. Hes only been over 135 once, and that was when he was a 1.000+ ops guy, not the .900 ops guy he is now.

Arod is by far the Cafes most overrated guy. He's nowhere near a top 3 pick.

POGO and CM were right on.
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15115
(Past Year: 297)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

Postby dannahann » Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:30 am

watts1931 wrote:some notes worth mentioning.......a pitcher with high K's will be valuable for me. I plan on getting a good pitcher in the 2nd or 3rd round..................also Double Plays are valued here....that is why i am considering Arod at 3rd..............but what do you guys think overrall???

I won't begin to consider the entire scoring system, it favors pitching but it's so unique :-P that you'll have to run numbers on the obscure cats yourself. Just looking at hitters and the 3 points per double play tho, that's going to slide OF down some and MI up. Something critical to consider here, does EVERY fielder that's involved in the DP get points or just the initiator?. I mean a 1B is likely involved in something like 95% of the DP a team turns right? And would a 1B score 6 points on the 3-6-3 DPs. Does a SS score 6 for a 6U DP? Man I'd upgrade 1B and SS if every portion of a DP counts the the same as a SB? Weird system to say the least.
dannahann
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafe Ranker
Posts: 1991
(Past Year: 39)
Joined: 26 Jun 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Missouri

Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri Feb 18, 2005 7:59 am

GSes wrote:he is Alex frickin Rodriguez.

This whole thing about him moving parks and thus his HR and avg go WAY DOWN is a bunch of BULLS***. :-D

He is Arod for gods sake and last season he had a "downb year" by not reaching 40HR and 300avg.

Arod started out real slow last season and then got on track.

If you don't take Arod wit the 1st or 2nd pick I think u are surely mistaking, I see him hitting 150 RBI this year. And for those people who think he won't steal this season like last, ur wrong.

Do you realise Arod went from the Rangers to the Yanks and his Stolen Bags went wayyyyyyy up

And Soriano went from Yanks to Rangers and his Bags went WAYYYYYYYYYY down.

You see what im getting at? NY runs, Arod will run in NY b/c they run a lot. Alex Rodriguez.

I believe Arod is the #1 pick, you just can't go wrong here.

120 Runs
45HR
150 RBI
20 SB
300 avg

Hitting in that lineup, the 150 rbi is not a stretch imo. the 45 HR is no problem, he has hit 55+ before. and dont even try to tell me that his park change will make him hit 20LESS Homers........no i dont think so.

Alex Rodriguez is the #1 pick over pujols,vlad,and beltran for these reasons

he has more power then beltran, and will still steal 20+ bases even though beltran will steal 35+. The 10-15 less SB's are more then made up for by him destroying beltran in RBI and most likely more homers.

He beats Vlad b/c i think their power numbers will be similar, vlad will hit for higher avg, but arod will steal more bases.

He beats pujols b/c pujols has that little foot problem and as small as that is, its big enough for me to not take him over arod,vlad, and beltran at this point in the spring.

So yes at this moment I would take Alex Rodriguez with the #1 overall pick, do I change that yes, many times I think hmm I like pujols #1 today. If only Arod still played Shortstop he would be the Consesis #1 pick like he is every year.

However this year he its not, and i agree pujols, vlad, and beltran are all right next to arod.

You can't go wrong taking any of those 4 guys with the #1 pick.
150 RBI is a stretch for anyone. If anyone is going to get that much, it would be Albert Pujols because he hits like 30 points of average better. And if Vlad steals 20-25 (which is how many ARod will steal) he will be more valuable because he should beat him in HR and average. Runs and RBIs are too close to call.
Image
CubsFan7724
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 6426
Joined: 19 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: AKA 34=Sweetness on FFC

Postby GSes » Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:48 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
GSes wrote:he is Alex frickin Rodriguez.

This whole thing about him moving parks and thus his HR and avg go WAY DOWN is a bunch of BULLS***. :-D



Arod started out real slow last season and then got on track.



Hitting in that lineup, the 150 rbi is not a stretch imo. the 45 HR is no problem, he has hit 55+ before. and dont even try to tell me that his park change will make him hit 20LESS Homers........no i dont think so.



You don't understand park effects then. Check out his home/road splits while in Texas, then last year. His road numbers were similiar, while his home numbers were way off. It's not a fluke.

Arod actually hit more hrs, and had a better ops, the 1st half.

150 rbis is a dream. Hes only been over 135 once, and that was when he was a 1.000+ ops guy, not the .900 ops guy he is now.

Arod is by far the Cafes most overrated guy. He's nowhere near a top 3 pick.

POGO and CM were right on.


ur right 150 RBI, you can not project that. BUT Arod is more then capable of 150 rbi in that lineup. Next to say he can't hit 45HR is ridiculous, i dont think you understand that the guy has true talent.

Finally, arod not a top 3 pick?

thats the ludacris
Image
GSes
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2498
Joined: 9 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Shadows

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:52 pm

GSes wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
GSes wrote:he is Alex frickin Rodriguez.

This whole thing about him moving parks and thus his HR and avg go WAY DOWN is a bunch of BULLS***. :-D



Arod started out real slow last season and then got on track.



Hitting in that lineup, the 150 rbi is not a stretch imo. the 45 HR is no problem, he has hit 55+ before. and dont even try to tell me that his park change will make him hit 20LESS Homers........no i dont think so.



You don't understand park effects then. Check out his home/road splits while in Texas, then last year. His road numbers were similiar, while his home numbers were way off. It's not a fluke.

Arod actually hit more hrs, and had a better ops, the 1st half.

150 rbis is a dream. Hes only been over 135 once, and that was when he was a 1.000+ ops guy, not the .900 ops guy he is now.

Arod is by far the Cafes most overrated guy. He's nowhere near a top 3 pick.

POGO and CM were right on.


ur right 150 RBI, you can not project that. BUT Arod is more then capable of 150 rbi in that lineup. Next to say he can't hit 45HR is ridiculous, i dont think you understand that the guy has true talent.

Finally, arod not a top 3 pick?

thats the ludacris


well, Gses, some people like to use statistical evidence to support their arguments, and some people dont I guess.

Now go make your pick in the Cafe Challenge! }:-)
Image
Cornbread Maxwell
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertPick 3 ChampionSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5694
Joined: 7 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Oct. 1
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

San Francisco at Pittsburgh
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact