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HUGE pts league discovery...i think...is my theory correct?

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Postby yellowdog » Sat Feb 26, 2005 12:15 pm

This is the best points league thread I have ever seen! Lots of good info here! I hope my leaguemates aren't looking. Points per inning is the way you have to look at pitching. *bonus info* If your league is a yahoo league, and you have pitchers divided into categories of Sp and RP, grab Affeldt after you hgave filled your RPs and play him as an SP. If he remains the closer, his Points per inning will be higher than any other SP around, even if he only saves 20-25 games. ;-D
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Postby DK » Sat Feb 26, 2005 12:20 pm

I disagree. I believe that I'm the #1 PIMP.
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Postby cmchampa2 » Sat Feb 26, 2005 1:33 pm

The one counterpoint that seems to be popular that I just don't get is the "some of the top pitchers will not repeat and some of the undrafted pitchers will be very good." While this is true, to say that it's a reason to draft hitters early doesn't really follow. It's not any different than saying you're better off trying to get lucky latter rather than earlier. If you admit that there is some luck involved in fielding your SPs, what's the difference of whether a manager gets lucky in the early rounds or the late ones?
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Postby stoner420 » Sat Feb 26, 2005 2:04 pm

yeah, this thread turned out to be fantastic. thanks for everyones input, this is exactly what i was hoping for. This data has really convinced me that the top stud pitcher are MUST takes for a league like mine. I know theres a risk but honestly, u have got to take risks like these, cuz look at the results u will achieve. Because after seeing this data its apparent that the best sp will compleatly outscore the best hitter, now the only trouble is finding that best pitcher....
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Postby unclepaulie » Sat Feb 26, 2005 2:19 pm

this is exactly what i was hoping for


Wow, this is the 100th time you've mentioned that you are the author of this thread :-°
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Postby TheRock » Sat Feb 26, 2005 3:20 pm

Not sure I follow how this is a HUGE discovery. Any clown in a Sandbox league can look at the "Total Points Scored" column and see that pitchers score more than hitters.

If I follow your logic correctly, you've noticed that only the top 100 pitchers outscore hitters? Well, I guess you'd better draft some before those top 100 are gone then. When's that? Round 22 or so?

But seriously, I agree with your point, but also agree with those who cite pitching's unpredictability. Pitching is easy to find later in the draft or on the wire through the season, hitting not so much.

If you were to start your draft

1) pitcher
2) pitcher
3) hitter
4) hitter

you miss the truly great hitters, but yes you may get a 42 year old with no cartilege in his knee.

But if you start

1) hitter
2) hitter
3) pitcher
4) pitcher

you are still very likely to come out with some top pitchers, but now have an offensive core. Look at the pitchers being drafted in rounds 3, 4 and later. Sheets, Mussina, Halladay, Ollie, Peavy, Wood, Clemens, Oswalt, Mulder, etc. Likely one of those guys will be among the top SPs you crave.

But of course follow normal procedures of going with the flow of the draft. Don't be too set into your draft plan before it gets started, blah, blah, blah.
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Postby Dice » Sat Feb 26, 2005 5:20 pm

yellowdog wrote:This is the best points league thread I have ever seen! Lots of good info here! I hope my leaguemates aren't looking. Points per inning is the way you have to look at pitching. *bonus info* If your league is a yahoo league, and you have pitchers divided into categories of Sp and RP, grab Affeldt after you hgave filled your RPs and play him as an SP. If he remains the closer, his Points per inning will be higher than any other SP around, even if he only saves 20-25 games. ;-D


That's true. Grabbing Graves last year gave me a four closer + K-Rod bullpen in a 20 team league last year. Even a mediocre closer scores better than elite starters in a points per inning basis so long as they hold the job.

I forgot about Sandbox. The results will be far less dramatic there since players are framed by points ratings by default anyway and players will stumble into decent moves without analysis. You still may have an edge but not an overwhelming one. In Yahoo, where the default player rankings are based on roto strength, you should cream anyone who hasn't done their own analysis.

stoner, I look forward to your reports during the season. Like I said, the win for me last year was so dramatic I don't feel right playing points leagues anymore. Still, it was fun.
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Postby stoner420 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 1:50 pm

TheRock wrote:
"If you were to start your draft

1) pitcher
2) pitcher
3) hitter
4) hitter

you miss the truly great hitters, but yes you may get a 42 year old with no cartilege in his knee.

But if you start

1) hitter
2) hitter
3) pitcher
4) pitcher"

I totally disagree... with these findings how could i not take a stud sp in the beginning. if i do hitter hitter pitcher pitcher my team will look just like everyone else's and i wont have the edge on them.
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Postby demoflauchy » Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:37 pm

Based the scoring in my league:
Hitters:
1 Point: BBI, 1B, HBP
2 Points: SB, 2B
3 Points: 3B
4 Points: HR
-1 Point: KO, CS

Pitchers:
1 Point: K, PKO, Out
5 Points: Shut Out
10 Points: W, S
-1 Point: H, ER, BBI
-5 Point: BS, L

I'm having to decide who my keepers are and who my first pick in the draft is going to be (I have the first pick).

Based on the scoring system, the top 30 or so pitchers dominate our league, and those who win the league have lots of great pitching.

I'm keeping:
Vlad, Hudson, Halladay

I need a 4th Keeper out of:
Soriano, Mussina, Edmonds, V Wells.

Available options for my first round pick (projected points for 05):
Oswalt (613), Clemens (553), Lidge(657), Nathan(654), F Rod(645), Ol Perez (718), Colon (665)

My thoughts are, keep Mussina as my 4th, pick up Ol Perez or Oswalt as my first pick and then grab some bats with my 2nd and 3rd round picks (likely Edmonds or Wells will be there at that spot, and I'd bet that one of Lidge, Nathan or F Rod will be there too, if they are, i'm grabbing one of them).

So my team would look like this after round 3 of the draft (with 2005 projected point totals):

Vlad (639)
Hudson (578)
Halladay (631)
Mussina (590)
Oswalt/Perez (avg of 650+)
V Wells (485)
Edmonds (481)

The reason I'm contemplating dropping Soriano is that he's not super valuable in a points based league b/c he strikes out so much (last year only managed 399 points... average bat there compared to the points I can get at P in his place).

Thoughts?
Last edited by demoflauchy on Mon Feb 28, 2005 3:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby stoner420 » Mon Feb 28, 2005 2:24 pm

demo, i like the way you think. go with ollie! and yeah mussinas a must keep. your leaguemates will give u sh*t for droping soriano but you can give it right back to them in the end of the season when u have successfully won the league.
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