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HUGE pts league discovery...i think...is my theory correct?

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HUGE pts league discovery...i think...is my theory correct?

Postby stoner420 » Wed Feb 16, 2005 1:21 pm

ok so ive been doing a good amount of research about points based scoring leagues. Because that what i love. Thanks to the help of some cafe members, i now have an excel spread sheet that uses projections mixed with the pts system for my league and generates ppg and total points for each player. Now, after looking at the list for some time i came to realize something. Under my leagues scoring system, which is a fairly standard pts league system...

The #1 Pitcher (names dont matter in the example) Will get around 850 fantasy points(21w, 280k, etc)
The #1 Hitter Will get around 650 fantasy points (pujols, basically)

So theres a difference of 200 points between the best pitcher and hitter. At first glance i thought... oh that isnt a big deal because pitchers get 3 points an inning no matter who they are... and because there is a max number of outs in my league, the points must be skewed unfairly for the sp's. But wait...

So i moved on to the #50 pitcher (in my case it was smoltz but doesnt matter) and he was projected at 515. (more than 300 points less than the #1 sp...hmmm)

Then i looked at the #50 hitter.. he got 465 pts (200 less than pujols) (only 50 less than smoltz)

Next on to the #100 pitcher..400 fantasy points(115 pt drop from pitcher #50)

And the #100 hitter... well your guess it... 400 fantasy points.


That is a big discovery. Correct me if im wrong... but doesnt that mean that all of the top sp's are worth waaay more than the top hitters.

Before i saw this i was always under the impression that all sp's were generally better than hitters, due to points for outs. But now i realize that only the realy really good pitchers are more valubale than hitters, after the top 50 it really drops. A mediocre pitcher, will get no more pts than a mediocre hitter, even when u add the outs.


So correct me if im wrong... For my leagues scoring... the best players are all top notch SP's... but after a certain point the so-so pitchers become really invaluable compared to hitters. Because assuming that every player in my league uses the max amount of outs allowed... the #100 pitcher, who has the same totall pts as the #100 batter, will be worth way less... due to the fact that pts for innings arent very important because every team gets the same amount.


I really want comments about this post. Please dont let it fall into page two and get no comments.. because i really think that i may be on to something here... but im not positive. If my theory is right, wont that mean that i should draft all stud sps for like my first 3 rounds at least?
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Postby Kingctb27 » Wed Feb 16, 2005 1:24 pm

Either way your gonna hvae to fill up your hitting roster, so if you have first pick in the draft, you stil lhave to take Pujols. There will always be pitchers on the board later in the draft. ;-D
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Postby stoner420 » Wed Feb 16, 2005 1:28 pm

yeah but what im saying is that the pitchers later in the draft are way less valuable than we think, and that the pitchers early on in the draft are way more valuable than we thought. I wish i could show you guys a graph. It would work like this: A standard 2 line graph, one for pitchers one for hitters. The pitchers would start 200 points higher than the hitters... it would go town very slowely to start, with all of the stud pitchers getting lots of points.. but suddenly after say 35 it would drop very drastically. Where as the hitters graph would start 200 pts below the pitchers one but just move down diagonally in a none curved line, while the sp's would be a very curved line. Make sense?
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Postby stoner420 » Wed Feb 16, 2005 1:31 pm

Doesnt this theory kind of imply that the way to maximize pts would be to draft sp's while the graph is very very high, and then after picking say 4 stud sp's, you move on to drafting hitters because the production doesnt drop off like the pitchers does.
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Postby Jackie Treehorn » Wed Feb 16, 2005 1:46 pm

I've been in leagues like this before, and you are right, to an extent. Elite starters will be very valuable. However, pitchers are still more likely to get injured than hitters. They are less predictable. If you did as you suggest last year and took a starter with your first three picks, you might have ended up with Prior, Vazquez, and Halladay. You would have finished, most likely, in the bottom half of your league. You also have to consider what others in your league are likely to do. If they all draft hitting heavily early, it makes no sense to load up on starters because you'll miss out on the great hitters when you could have gotten pitchers later. There are a lot of ins, a lot of outs, lot of what have yous. You can't just look at the points.
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Postby SilentReader » Wed Feb 16, 2005 1:52 pm

your theory would be all well and good if we were able to accurately project total FP's for pitchers BEFORE the season,but we can't.the huys that happen to end up in the top ten or twenty among SP's wil;l be extemely valuable to have.but the prpblem is,no one knows who those guys will be.using sandbox FP scoring,over the last five years, just barely more than half of the SP's who finish in the top 20 one year will be there the followinbg year.the saying we like to use over at sandbox is, "pitching wins championships, but drafting pitching doesn't"
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Postby stoner420 » Wed Feb 16, 2005 1:56 pm

"You also have to consider what others in your league are likely to do. If they all draft hitting heavily early, it makes no sense to load up on starters because you'll miss out on the great hitters when you could have gotten pitchers later."

I think you dont understand what im saying though... If they are all loading up on stud hitters(which is what they will do) I will of course miss out on the heltons and mannys out their... but i will be getting guys who (pending injurys) will get 200 more pts than the ones that they are picking! thats huge, i could be going into the 4th round with a 600 pt advantage on my leaguemates. And sure, then obviously while im stuck picking guys like michael young as my top hitters they will be picking pitchers... but i think that i will have the upperhand... because i will max on big pts from my top 3 sps, then get solid production out of my hitters, it wont be the best in the league of course, but i think when its all said and done... i will have way more pts generated on pitching than anyone else.. and those extra points will def be enough to outweigh the amount of pts that they all will have on me due to hitting.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Feb 16, 2005 1:59 pm

That is interesting!! The thing is though, I would also expect that you would likely see much more variance in pitchers projected #s vs. the #s they really will generate. I think that your are much more likely to see pitchers struggle or explode than hitters. There are suprises on both sides of the mound but pitchers seem to be much harder to guess this on. Maybe b/c pitchers are more likely to fight through problems that can impair their performance or something like that?

Look at Prior's struggles last year until he got it together. We did our draft right after the first noise began to appear that he was going to be having issues but there was no hard information so one guy used the 10 or 11 pick on him. Most people anticipated a much more productive season out of him than that. Another example would be Santana last year, some expected he'd be an ok SP, he tanked a few starts and I dumped him but was FORTUNATELY able to get him back off waivers a couple of weeks later when he got back on track. I don't think that many commentators would have been able to predict that Santana would put together a string that compares favorably w/ Sandy Koufax but he did. He may very well continue to be a good option this year but is it worth a top 5 pick? Numerically, he SHOULD get an owner more points than a comparable hitter but do you want to bet, whether its a $1K league or only for trash talking, on a pitcher? yikes!!
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Postby SilentReader » Wed Feb 16, 2005 2:01 pm

stoner420 wrote:"You also have to consider what others in your league are likely to do. If they all draft hitting heavily early, it makes no sense to load up on starters because you'll miss out on the great hitters when you could have gotten pitchers later."

I think you dont understand what im saying though... If they are all loading up on stud hitters(which is what they will do) I will of course miss out on the heltons and mannys out their... but i will be getting guys who (pending injurys) will get 200 more pts than the ones that they are picking! thats huge, i could be going into the 4th round with a 600 pt advantage on my leaguemates. And sure, then obviously while im stuck picking guys like michael young as my top hitters they will be picking pitchers... but i think that i will have the upperhand... because i will max on big pts from my top 3 sps, then get solid production out of my hitters, it wont be the best in the league of course, but i think when its all said and done... i will have way more pts generated on pitching than anyone else.. and those extra points will def be enough to outweigh the amount of pts that they all will have on me due to hitting.

thats IF those 3 SP's you take project to what you think they will.history shows that there is only about a 50% chance of that happening.thats not very good.the % of top hitters repeating good seasons is MUCH higher.thats why even in points leagues,although pitchers are more valuable than in roto, hitters still get drafted first.
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Postby ironman » Wed Feb 16, 2005 2:02 pm

Care to try out your theory in a points league I'm in? Its a keeper league and we've got a few openings due to dead teams.
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