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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Mon Feb 14, 2005 5:45 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Absolutely Adequate wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Id draft Bonderman before both Barcia and Buehrle - no offense to those two pitchers, but thats what park effect does to a pitcher.

If you do draft Garcia and Buehrle, make sure you never ever play them at home.

At Comisky...
Garcia - 5.37 ERA/ 1.4 WHIP
Buehrle - 5.02 ERA/ 1.42 WHIP


Why would you take Bonderman over those two? What makes you think his stats will be any better than the home stats for Garcia/Buehrle? At least with those guys you can play them half the time. Bonderman will put up a 5 era at home and on the road.


Upside. Im sure you know the story by now AA. Bonderman had a terrific 2nd half, he's always been projected as a #1 SP, he was called up much much too early and is just now getting to where he should be. I dont see an ERA under 4 - dont get me wrong - he still has some growing he needs to get though - but then again, he is only 22. Most places have Bondo tagged as a sleeper this yr, based solely on his 2nd half split and the upside scouts had him tagged for. He's definitely a risky pick though. About as much risk as Buehrle and Garcia, but with much greater upside.


That's what everyone keeps telling me about Bonderman. I don't buy it. Have you looked closely at his 2nd half splits? He was facing triple-A competition. How many times in a row can a guy face the Royals.

Here's something I wrote earlier, which mostly applies:

Arroyo. If you can only keep Bonderman one more year, I'd go with the guy that will be better this year.

And that's Arroyo.

The reason that people expect Bonderman to break out this year is because he had a nice 2nd half of the season last year. He had a post all-star break era of 3.70. It's not bad. But...

He's a pitcher that - at this point in his career - isn't good enough to fool hitters twice. Amongst all the teams he faced twice or more last year, he had a sub-4 era against 3 of them. And Oakland, Seattle, and Tampa Bay weren't offensive powerhouses.

What's more, the month that brought his era down to the level of respectablity was September when he had a 2.53 era. He played Tampa Bay twice, the White Sox, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Baltimore. And Cleveland hit him pretty hard.

In the long run, I have no doubt that Bonderman will be the better pitcher. But this year? Arroyo. Probably next year too.
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Postby Spartans Rule » Mon Feb 14, 2005 5:48 pm

Absolutely Adequate wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Id draft Bonderman before both Barcia and Buehrle - no offense to those two pitchers, but thats what park effect does to a pitcher.

If you do draft Garcia and Buehrle, make sure you never ever play them at home.

At Comisky...
Garcia - 5.37 ERA/ 1.4 WHIP
Buehrle - 5.02 ERA/ 1.42 WHIP


Why would you take Bonderman over those two? What makes you think his stats will be any better than the home stats for Garcia/Buehrle? At least with those guys you can play them half the time. Bonderman will put up a 5 era at home and on the road.


Wow, there are people not on the Bonderman bandwagon? Interesting.

3.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 85 K in 90 IP in the second half last year. He was a first round draft pick, has great stuff and has been touted as a future ace for a long time. Should've been in the minors the last two years, would have been for a better organization, so I don't see a lot of statistical significance in the lousy stats he put up for a year and a half.

Landing young breakout pitchers is a big key to winning fantasy leagues, and this guy has all the signs.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Feb 14, 2005 5:58 pm

I don't like Bonderman that much for this year... he's got potential, but I see an ERA in the area of 4.50. Buehrle's ERA should be significantly lower, and like you mentioned CM, you can pick spots where you don't want to start him (ie: at home versus Boston or NY) and his ERA will probably be significantly lower than 4 taking into account the spot non-starts. I actually have him projected at a 3.63 ERA for the whole season, which I know alot of people will disagree with, but that's a hell of a lot better than Bonderman will probably do. As for Freddy... he won't be a lot better than Bonderman, but still I'd take him ahead of Bonderman. In a dynasty league, or keeper where you keep 10+ players I'd take Bonderman over Freddy, but no matter what the league is I'd take Buehrle over Bonderman every day of the week.

So many people have Bonderman due for such a great year, and he's going to go far too early IMO. He's still very young, give him time. But when every person you talk to has him as their big sleeper... thsoe are the guys to avoid IMO.
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Postby Spartans Rule » Mon Feb 14, 2005 6:06 pm

Here's something I wrote earlier, which mostly applies:

Arroyo. If you can only keep Bonderman one more year, I'd go with the guy that will be better this year.

And that's Arroyo.

The reason that people expect Bonderman to break out this year is because he had a nice 2nd half of the season last year. He had a post all-star break era of 3.70. It's not bad. But...

He's a pitcher that - at this point in his career - isn't good enough to fool hitters twice. Amongst all the teams he faced twice or more last year, he had a sub-4 era against 3 of them. And Oakland, Seattle, and Tampa Bay weren't offensive powerhouses.

What's more, the month that brought his era down to the level of respectablity was September when he had a 2.53 era. He played Tampa Bay twice, the White Sox, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Baltimore. And Cleveland hit him pretty hard.

In the long run, I have no doubt that Bonderman will be the better pitcher. But this year? Arroyo. Probably next year too.

It was not the greatest set of offenses that Bonderman faced down the stretch. But it was not the greatest set of offenses that was rocking him early in the year either. His two worst outings came early on against Kansas City and Baltimore.

Clearly there was something different down the stretch when he pitched much better against those teams.

And in the AL Central, Bonderman should have an easy schedule again anyway.

Now as for Arroyo, I agree. He will be a great value pick this year, better than Bonderman.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Feb 14, 2005 6:10 pm

LBJackal wrote:So many people have Bonderman due for such a great year, and he's going to go far too early IMO. He's still very young, give him time. But when every person you talk to has him as their big sleeper... thsoe are the guys to avoid IMO.


I agree with this - Bondo's fantasy value has skyrocketed to unreasonable purportions over the last 6 months - he's still at least a yr away from being the stud pitcher people who draft him early are looking for. He still has some rough patches to get through. I do think the 16th rd where this guy is thinking about taking him is solid value though - all you are really looking for at this point is upside.

I do want to say that one of the big things that would rank Bondo higher than others for keeper purposes is his Krate - Buehrle, Garcia, and Arroyo cant match it - close but definitely a step down.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Feb 14, 2005 6:18 pm

Yes, Bonderman's K's will be higher than Buehrle's - about 50 more by my projections. But Buehrle's ERA will be a lot lower (almost a full run), and he'll have about 4 more wins. That trumps the 50 K's IMO. Sure Buehrle lacks potential, but that's only because he's already reached his potential. Bonderman's most favourable projections probably wouldn't meet what I expect from Buehrle.
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Postby xach » Mon Feb 14, 2005 7:09 pm

I don't have the time to read what everyone else said, so if I'm redundant here so be it, but since you PM'd me for my help I wll give you my thoughts:

First of all, I'd like to know who else is really available. Not to be taken the wrong way, but I'd be surprised if those are all the most viable options. What MR's are available to you right now? Did any of them have 100+K last season? Are any of them strong middle relievers on teams with lousy starting pitchers and strong offenses? Your pitching needs wins badly and could use some leverage in WHIP and ERA as well. This is what I see anyway. It also needs some saves, but there are always saves to be had as the season wears on and bullpen changes get made. Of the pitchers you listed, I'd likely grab in the order of Buehrle, then Garcia and then Bonderman or Westbrook. But I'd be most interested to truly know who's out there. How do Buehrle and Garcia slide this late? It makes me think there may be other options out there you or other people are sleeping on. If Pineiro is available I would jump on him. If Rich Harden is available I would run, not walk, to get him on the team.

Truly do consider stock piling high impact MR's if they're out there and you have a deep bench. Your pitching really does need some help and the top 10 or so MR's are very valuable in your league's format. Also once the season starts you will want to keep an especially hawkish eye on the waiver wire/free agent board for relievers who are overchieving. Every year there is a handful of MR's who come out of complete obscurity to put up very useful numbers. You will need these guys. If none of the truly top notch MR's are available (and don't make the mistake of looking for who has the most holds) do not waste picks on the next tier. They (or ones like them) can be had for free later.

For bats, I think you are looking decent. You have terrific HR, RBI and AVG numbers it seems to me. You could use some runs maybe, but your only definite need there is for SB. You also have some injury concerns. Nixon is a decent optoin of teh players left on the board since he is dependable. I would also definitely target Alex Sanchez, as he has the potential to be a real impact player for you in both ethe runs and SB departments should he and Maggs both stay healthy. That said, you may be able to wait a couple rounds on Sanchez, as he was hurt much of last season and may have deflated value. Depending how wiley your other league members are, you may be able to let him slide a round or two deeper.

If all else fails, I would consistently choose the player you perceive will have the highest trade value and then start making deals. Your team has a lot of talent, but it's really unbalanced.

Someone mentioned in another thread when giving you advice that you don't need every category in H2H leagues. This is true. But if you punt more than one or two cats you had better basically be the best in all the others. Better off to try and address all your needs. I'd focus on saves the least for the moment since they'll likely be the easiest to replace later.

My guess, however, is that the best options available to you may not be on the list of players you posted above.

Good luck.
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Postby ayebatter » Mon Feb 14, 2005 8:22 pm

hitters - jjones - kotsay
pitchers - buehrle - garcia


long shot hitter - sanchez
long shot pitcher - bonderman
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