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Need Help! Last years lineups.

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Need Help! Last years lineups.

Postby Elijah » Mon Feb 14, 2005 4:09 pm

Hey Guys,

I'm working on a formula for projecting runs and rbi's. I need to test it against some of last years lineups. If you happen to remember a team's lineup from 2004 please post it here. One thing though, the team needs to not have had any major changes in the lineup last year. So any team with changes like major trades (houston), major injuries (white sox) or major callups (twins) wouldn't work for this project. Basically any team that more or less had the same lineup throughout the year (people changing 1 or 2 slots up or down in the batting order aren't a big deal).

Thanks in advance.

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Re: Need Help! Last years lineups.

Postby AKhomebrewer » Mon Feb 14, 2005 4:15 pm

Sorry, I'm not sure where that info is, but ...

Elijah wrote:One thing though, the team needs to not have had any major changes in the lineup last year.


Wow. Good luck with that. Gonna put a hurt on your data's sample size.
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Postby NZF » Mon Feb 14, 2005 4:58 pm

Yeah, you're pissing into the wind with this one.

Even teams like Florida who had 5 of their guys play over 150 games, changed catchers and OF's mid-season.

You use the Astros as an example of a team not to use but they were probably one of the more stable lineups all season, despite getting Beltran mid-year.

If you really still want to go after this one, I can tell you that the Padres possibly had the most settled lineup in the majors in 2004, without being affected by any trades or significant injuries.

Burroughs
Loretta
Giles
Nevin
Klesko
Greene
Hernandez
Payton

still having said that, Terrence Long ended up playing more games than Klesko and Burroughs missed the last few weeks of the season.

Good luck but I really think you are on a hiding to nothing.
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Postby Elijah » Mon Feb 14, 2005 6:49 pm

Thanks for the SD lineup. You're definately right that the sample size is gonna be small on this one but what can I do really. I've never come across a formula to predict the situational stats so at the very least having something that will predict like Ichiro's runs with two huge bashers behind him or what impact Beltran will have in NY should be interesting.

The lineups don't have to be perfect. I'm going to be using mainly OBP and SLG, so anybody that got replaced with anybody remotely similar shouldn't affect the bottom line too much. Say within 50 points of OPS wouldn't be the end of the world.

Some teams that to the best of my knowledge didn't have huge relevant changes: NYY, TEX, ANA, NYM, MIL, SF. Maybe I'm wrong on these ones, honestly I wasn't following all that closely last year. Thanks again for any help.
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Postby Tavish » Mon Feb 14, 2005 6:57 pm

Thanks for the SD lineup. You're definately right that the sample size is gonna be small on this one but what can I do really. I've never come across a formula to predict the situational stats so at the very least having something that will predict like Ichiro's runs with two huge bashers behind him or what impact Beltran will have in NY should be interesting.


The difference normally isn't all that huge, I'll try and dig out my RBI/R projection method but it is almost completely based on James' Brock2 method of RBI = .235*TB + HR and then adjusted for the expected lineup position. For being such a simple method it can be very accurate.
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Postby Elijah » Mon Feb 14, 2005 7:35 pm

Cool Tavish thanks, that would be great.
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Postby Spartans Rule » Mon Feb 14, 2005 7:44 pm

Yahoo's situational stats break down each hitter's numbers by lineup position, so you can get a good idea of what each team's lineup was and which were most stable looking at those.

I'm very interested in this. I usually end up baffled when I try to project R and RBI and end up throwing down some 3-year averages regardless of situation.
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