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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Feb 14, 2005 9:46 am

I'd just add that if you DO get him, you may want to wait to stick him in for a few weeks as I recall that he took a bit to warm up, which is understandable considering the generally vile weather at Wrigley in April. Looking at the game log, there were 3 rough outings before a good one.

I think that he's ok for the bottom of the draft but, not only does the Cubbies' bullpen alarm but one has to wonder if replacing Sosa w/ Burnitz will yield anything in the way of returns and, w/ less offense, how many wins will the team rack up?

Obviously, I hope that Dusty is channelling Harry Potter but, in terms of fantasy ball, I am downgrading the Cubs' SP a bit as I'm anticipating some uh, challenges.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Feb 14, 2005 9:54 am

hold on now - the last two years he started off terribly, but then returned to form in the 2nd half. To say he is so far removed from a 3 ERA is untrue. He had 2nd half ERAs of 3.05 and 3.48 the last two years - the yr before that he had a 2.62 ERA for the entire season. To say he isnt a legit threat to pitch under 4 shows a pretty large bias or a lack of insight into his numbers.

Regardless of ERA - what about his WHIP - are you saying that a WHIP under 1.2 isnt fantastic? There were a total of 13 SPs last yr that had a better WHIP.

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No one is saying he's an early rd pick, but to say something like you wont draft him unless he falls to you in the last rd is absurd. I dont like the Cubs, so I really dont have that type of overinflated bias that you think exists. Im also wouldnt say wildly fictional things like he's 38 but has a body of a 53 yr old - how did you come up with that anyway? As for him being passed his prime, I agree - he's well past it, but because of the mechanics of his throw he has always been labeled as someone who would be able to pitch for years, and the truth is, we dont have to go back to '00 to see when he put up great numbers - I'll take his '02 numbers pretty quickly too - I'll even be thrilled with his 2nd half splits the last two years.

As for the bullpen situation, Id say thats someowhat mitigated by Maddux's drop in the rotation - what is he, their #4 starter now that Prior has returned - thats a ton of favorable matchups. 15 wins is a lock.
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Postby tiger spit » Mon Feb 14, 2005 10:14 am

i'm not saying i dont love maddux. he's always been one of my favorite SPs of all time. im just wondering how soon you'd actually draft him? now, i do understand he takes a while to warm up, then by august he's pitching great.. with that thinking, how soon would you draft a SP that you know you need to wait till late summer to get results from?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Feb 14, 2005 10:23 am

maloze wrote:i'm not saying i dont love maddux. he's always been one of my favorite SPs of all time. im just wondering how soon you'd actually draft him? now, i do understand he takes a while to warm up, then by august he's pitching great.. with that thinking, how soon would you draft a SP that you know you need to wait till late summer to get results from?


see - im not even going to say he's only worth half a yr based on his last two years unless there is a reasonable explanantion for the first couple months the last two years that would suggest it to be a recurring event.

How soon would I draft him? It really depends on the depth of SP available, but from what I can see so far, chances are I wouldnt begin to think about him until after the 10th rd - but anything after that is fair game.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Feb 14, 2005 1:07 pm

W/ guys like that, it might be more cost-effective to let him run up a few bad outings and trade some of your own underachievers for him or name him as a 'toss-in' to balance out a trade. That way somebody else can 'eat' the "Maddux" name inflation and you can buy him slightly devalued after some rough outings....
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Postby redsoxdoubledigits » Mon Feb 14, 2005 6:25 pm

was it just me or did anybody else see Maddux get rocked out of a game by the 4th inning last year more then we ever saw his entire career? I'm not a hater but come on, he barely got 15 last year, when the Cubs were in contention, this year, I say 13 wins and a repeat of his 4.00 + era
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Feb 14, 2005 6:38 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:hold on now - the last two years he started off terribly, but then returned to form in the 2nd half. To say he is so far removed from a 3 ERA is untrue. He had 2nd half ERAs of 3.05 and 3.48 the last two years - the yr before that he had a 2.62 ERA for the entire season. To say he isnt a legit threat to pitch under 4 shows a pretty large bias or a lack of insight into his numbers.

Regardless of ERA - what about his WHIP - are you saying that a WHIP under 1.2 isnt fantastic? There were a total of 13 SPs last yr that had a better WHIP.


2nd half numbers are nice, but I believe he has to pitch the first half in 2005 as well. First half the past couple years: 4.74 ERA. Yikes. And only one first-half month with an ERA lower than 4.63 as well.

His WHIP is great, and it probably always will be. But his HR rate is going up very fast. Ever since he left Atlanta, the ball has been flying out of the park. Being in the best HR park in baseball tends to do that to pitchers.
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Postby Dans » Mon Feb 14, 2005 6:39 pm

While 3.20 seems pretty unrealistic, I can definitely see him posting an ERA in the 3.80 range. His WHIP should continue to be strong as well.

However, I wouldn't say 15 wins is automatic like some of you are suggesting. The bullpen will definitely cost him a couple, plus, I don't consider him a reliable 7 inning pitcher anymore. ALso, being the #4 pitcher really will not help his matchups. That's just a myth. After the first couple weeks into the season, rotations get shuffled around as guys miss starts and teams play a different number of games. He will not consistenly see opposing #4 pitchers.
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Mon Feb 14, 2005 8:55 pm

I'm with acidrock on this one. I don't intend to draft Maddux at all, but I will be keeping an eye out for another slow start ... and an opportunity to raid him for the second half.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Feb 14, 2005 9:00 pm

AKhomebrewer wrote:I'm with acidrock on this one. I don't intend to draft Maddux at all, but I will be keeping an eye out for another slow start ... and an opportunity to raid him for the second half.


"well, gee, I'd trade you but I'd need a little bit more...hmmm, how about tossing Maddux in? I need an SP badly after Santana [another slow starter last year...heh heh heh] got RÖCKED again!!"
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