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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Sun Feb 13, 2005 9:56 pm

Derek Lowe is the perfect fit for Los Angeles. The park has always been an extreme pitchers park (even with the adjustments this year), but the one place that pitchers have gotten in trouble has been with the home runs. Derek Lowe is a mediocre pitcher, except that he doesn't give up home runs.

I think an era in the mid 3's with 130 k's is a probability. Maybe 12-15 wins. And you can probably get him late, too.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sun Feb 13, 2005 10:39 pm

I dont know why I would draft him in any mixed league. Maybe as a deep bench SP for spot starts - maybe.

Both his ERA and WHIP will hurt you - why should I think he should have a sub 4 ERA, and do you know what kind of destruction 180+ innings of a +1.6 Whip does to your average? :-o

His K rate is way below avg for fantasy pitchers too.

As for Ws, I see no reason to expect more than 14-15 at his best.

The park effect and change of league is not going to account for such a drastic drop in %s that his ERA lowers by a full point.

He rates right up there with the most overrated fantasy SPs in the game. :-t
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Postby hollywoodswingin » Sun Feb 13, 2005 11:05 pm

i don't think d lowe is a fantastic fantasy pitcher for your team, but i do think he'll be significantly better this year. here's why:

1. park factor--dodger stadium beats fenway
2. psychological factor--for a certain headcase, a new start could work wonders
3. changing leagues--nl batters haven't seen him

he'll be frequent waiver wire pick-up for sure, but probably not worth drafting unless you pick him up at the end.
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Postby LBJackal » Sun Feb 13, 2005 11:09 pm

I'm definately avoiding him... Dodger Stadium used to be a pitchers park but with the changes they made to it, I believe it'll play as an advantage to hitters, and it was already above averge for allowing homeruns. I don't think the park change will help him. Facing a DH will, though. And Izturis at SS is nice but instead of Cora and Beltre at 2B and 3B, he has Kent and Valentin. A serious downgrade from LA last season. So I think he'll be OK, but not as good as everybody else thinks.
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Sun Feb 13, 2005 11:15 pm

Something I've mentioned a few times here and there - but D. Lowe was one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors last year. The average pitcher sees only 25-26% of the balls put in play fall for hits. D. Lowe saw closer to 31%. History shows that he'll fall back down to 25-26% this year, meaning a big drop in his era.
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Postby Rico The Retard » Mon Feb 14, 2005 12:09 am

i actually think he will do ok this year, i dont know why its just a gut feeling, i could see him putting up some decent nubmers
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Postby brandnew » Mon Feb 14, 2005 12:14 am

Remember that the Dodgers are not the impeccable fielding team anymore.

They lost Cora and Beltre, and replaced them with Kent and Valentin. That's a pretty significant downgrade.
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Postby Spartans Rule » Mon Feb 14, 2005 12:56 am

Absolutely Adequate wrote:Something I've mentioned a few times here and there - but D. Lowe was one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors last year. The average pitcher sees only 25-26% of the balls put in play fall for hits. D. Lowe saw closer to 31%. History shows that he'll fall back down to 25-26% this year, meaning a big drop in his era.


This is true. Outside of the bad luck on balls in play, Lowe's line last year was virtually identical to his 2003 performance.

Of course, a repeat of 2003 isn't going to be enough to get me to draft him.
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Postby ayebatter » Mon Feb 14, 2005 2:08 am

Don't be low on Lowe - 200+ inn,135+k's,13w,3.59era,1.22 whip ;-D
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