Derek Lowe is the perfect fit for Los Angeles. The park has always been an extreme pitchers park (even with the adjustments this year), but the one place that pitchers have gotten in trouble has been with the home runs. Derek Lowe is a mediocre pitcher, except that he doesn't give up home runs.
I think an era in the mid 3's with 130 k's is a probability. Maybe 12-15 wins. And you can probably get him late, too.
I dont know why I would draft him in any mixed league. Maybe as a deep bench SP for spot starts - maybe.
Both his ERA and WHIP will hurt you - why should I think he should have a sub 4 ERA, and do you know what kind of destruction 180+ innings of a +1.6 Whip does to your average?
His K rate is way below avg for fantasy pitchers too.
As for Ws, I see no reason to expect more than 14-15 at his best.
The park effect and change of league is not going to account for such a drastic drop in %s that his ERA lowers by a full point.
He rates right up there with the most overrated fantasy SPs in the game.
i don't think d lowe is a fantastic fantasy pitcher for your team, but i do think he'll be significantly better this year. here's why:
1. park factor--dodger stadium beats fenway
2. psychological factor--for a certain headcase, a new start could work wonders
3. changing leagues--nl batters haven't seen him
he'll be frequent waiver wire pick-up for sure, but probably not worth drafting unless you pick him up at the end.
I'm definately avoiding him... Dodger Stadium used to be a pitchers park but with the changes they made to it, I believe it'll play as an advantage to hitters, and it was already above averge for allowing homeruns. I don't think the park change will help him. Facing a DH will, though. And Izturis at SS is nice but instead of Cora and Beltre at 2B and 3B, he has Kent and Valentin. A serious downgrade from LA last season. So I think he'll be OK, but not as good as everybody else thinks.
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by Absolutely Adequate » Sun Feb 13, 2005 11:15 pm
Something I've mentioned a few times here and there - but D. Lowe was one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors last year. The average pitcher sees only 25-26% of the balls put in play fall for hits. D. Lowe saw closer to 31%. History shows that he'll fall back down to 25-26% this year, meaning a big drop in his era.
Absolutely Adequate wrote:Something I've mentioned a few times here and there - but D. Lowe was one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors last year. The average pitcher sees only 25-26% of the balls put in play fall for hits. D. Lowe saw closer to 31%. History shows that he'll fall back down to 25-26% this year, meaning a big drop in his era.
This is true. Outside of the bad luck on balls in play, Lowe's line last year was virtually identical to his 2003 performance.
Of course, a repeat of 2003 isn't going to be enough to get me to draft him.
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by Absolutely Adequate » Sun Feb 13, 2005 9:56 pm 
