Beltre or Soriano - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Beltre or Soriano

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby Lofunzo » Sat Feb 12, 2005 7:34 pm

Rico The Retard wrote:i dont think youd get Soriano at 14th overall, but hes the clear choice above Beltre IMO


You would say that, Yankee homer. :-D
Image
Lofunzo
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerEagle EyeHockey ModPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 23698
(Past Year: 11)
Joined: 9 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Central Jersey

Postby Rico The Retard » Sat Feb 12, 2005 7:35 pm

Lofunzo wrote:
Rico The Retard wrote:i dont think youd get Soriano at 14th overall, but hes the clear choice above Beltre IMO


You would say that, Yankee homer. :-D



awwwwwwwww shut up :-b
fgfdsgdsfdasfd

"Hey honey, ya think KFC's still open"-Will Ferrell

Mark my words: Oliver Perez will be 2005 NL Cy Young Winner
Rico The Retard
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Ranker
Posts: 5820
Joined: 16 Jul 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Magical Valley Of Love And Happiness

Postby quietstorm » Sat Feb 12, 2005 8:21 pm

Lofunzo wrote:That's fair but let's turn it around. If you are assuming that Soriano is on a downward trend, how can you assume that Beltre is on such an upward trend?? He hit 60 points over his career average last season, more than doubled his career high in HR, and had almost 40 more RBI than any other season in his career. I might believe that he is just hitting his potential but it's not so clear cut and I like a little more certainty out of my 1st round picks. If someone wants to avoid Soriano, that's cool. Personally, I wouldn't but if I must, I'm certainly not going to spend my 1st pick on Beltre. Not yet at least.


True enough, it was just one year. However, prior to 2004, every pitching in MLB knew that a breaking ball low and away would K Beltre in every AB. He just couldn't hit them.

Last year, I'm certain all the pitchers were thinking, "%#^&, he finally figured it out!"

I realize that a lot of people have concern that it was a contract-year performance. My question, though, is this: Wouldn't Beltre realize that only having one year of good performance in his contract year would result in lower salaries? Very few players wouldn't realize that.

For me, it just seems like Beltre finally got the foundation of his house finished; he just did things a bit backwards, and made the mistake of building his house before the foundation. ;)
Your wisemen don't know how it feels to be thick as a brick...
quietstorm
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 758
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Pedantic » Sat Feb 12, 2005 8:46 pm

Lofunzo wrote:
Pedantic wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:
brandnew wrote:Well, going up from your normal is an upward trend...


1 season is not a trend. It is just a season. If he repeats last season, then we can start talking about a trend.

I also agree that Soriano loses some value in an OBP league but Beltre will never be mistaken for Berkman at the plate in that regard. If you hit .334 and can't even get an OBP of .400, that ain't so good. :-?

While I agree that OBP makes Beltre more valuable than Soriano (in that regard), the fact that he needs 2 of each IF position more than makes up for it. Pass on Soriano and good luck fielding 2 solid 2B. Pass on Beltre and you can still get 2 solid 3B.


Soriano's downward trend isn't limited to last year. Try looking past his gaudy '03 fantasy numbers. ;-)

While it's true that we may not know for a year or so if Beltre has established a new level of play, I don't think you can say that last year didn't establish an upward trend. In '03 he wasn't great and in '04 he was one of the best. That's headed upward. Obviously, with only one season, it makes it harder to judge whether or not he'll sustain his new level.

However, if we wait until we're ultra-comfortable with a player's level of play, well, that'd be far too late. That'd mean we'd always be a step behind everyone else. I don't think anyone who took a chance on Mora before last year was too disappointed with his performance. Naturally, both players carry some risk, but IMO the chances are better that Beltre continues posting great numbers than Soriano returning to 40/40. If given a choice between players with risk, I would certainly rather have the player headed up rather than the player headed down, regardless of position.


That's fair except for 2 things:

1. While Soriano's numbers went down across the board from 2002 to 2003, the difference was neglible. They were all fairly close.
2. The Mota comparison lacks 1 important part. He wasn't drafted in the 1st round. He was drafted much later. It is usually better to go with a known quantity in the 1st round, whenever possible.


The reason I say his numbers have been declining since '02 is because he had 92 XBH in '02, 79 in '03, and 64 in '04. And since the reason he could put up good numbers while hacking away at every pitch within a yard of the strike zone was because he put a charge into the ball whenever he actually made contact, those numbers, to me, are very telling.

And while it's true that folks never drafted Mora as high as they might with Soriano or Beltre, the principle remains the same. A player with an upward trend that an owner might have taken a chance on and been rewarded with an outstanding season.

Naturally, some folks won't want to take the chance on Beltre repeating, or at least coming close to last year's numbers. I respect them for it, but at the same time, if Soriano repeats numbers close to last year's he won't be worth a first or second round pick, no matter what position he plays. Based on the trends as I see them, I think that the chances that Beltre will be worth a second round pick are better than the chances that Soriano will be worth a first or second round pick.
Image
Pedantic
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicEagle EyeCafe Musketeer
Posts: 6725
Joined: 5 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Funny movie quote that everyone knows

Postby quietstorm » Sat Feb 12, 2005 10:31 pm

Since XBH isn't the most accurate stastic (AB fluctuations affect it considerably), here are the ISO stats for Soriano, the past three years (I've taken the liberty of using an altered ISO, effectively converting all triples into doubles, since a triple is a measure of speed more than power):

2002 - .245
2003 - .228
2004 - .199

In 2001, it was .159. As we all know, 2002 was his breakout season. But, he did have a significant dropoff in 2003. His HR and SB don't show it, but his ISO shows that there's a drop there (just look at his doubles for the year).

Let's look at Beltre's ISO (same adjustment, ISO = (2B + 3B + HR*3)/AB):

2001 - .137
2002 - .160
2003 - .181
2004 - .294

Okay, so there's a huge jump between '03 and '04. But he's clearly been getting more powerful, for some time. He was also up to .241 post-Break in '03. His average was only .257, post-Break in '03, but his OPS was up to .801.

There were signs that he was primed for a breakout. He's been getting better for a while, and he finally put it all together in '04.

Soriano's been falling apart for the past two years.
Your wisemen don't know how it feels to be thick as a brick...
quietstorm
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 758
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby DK » Sat Feb 12, 2005 10:38 pm

quietstorm wrote:I realize that a lot of people have concern that it was a contract-year performance. My question, though, is this: Wouldn't Beltre realize that only having one year of good performance in his contract year would result in lower salaries? Very few players wouldn't realize that.


I'm sure 4 years at $64 million dollars is telling him otherwise.
Image
DK
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 9533
Joined: 22 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: on deck

Postby quietstorm » Sat Feb 12, 2005 10:49 pm

DK wrote:
quietstorm wrote:I realize that a lot of people have concern that it was a contract-year performance. My question, though, is this: Wouldn't Beltre realize that only having one year of good performance in his contract year would result in lower salaries? Very few players wouldn't realize that.


I'm sure 4 years at $64 million dollars is telling him otherwise.


As a Mariner's fan, I'm well aware that our management overpaid. ;)
Your wisemen don't know how it feels to be thick as a brick...
quietstorm
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 758
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Pedantic » Sat Feb 12, 2005 10:52 pm

Looks like the adjusted isolated power said exactly the same thing as extra base hits. :-b ;-)
Image
Pedantic
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicEagle EyeCafe Musketeer
Posts: 6725
Joined: 5 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Funny movie quote that everyone knows

Postby quietstorm » Sun Feb 13, 2005 2:02 pm

Pedantic wrote:Looks like the adjusted isolated power said exactly the same thing as extra base hits. :-b ;-)

LOL, yes. But my point was just to give a more accurate measurement that XBH, which means adjusted ISO ;)

Same results, of course.
Your wisemen don't know how it feels to be thick as a brick...
quietstorm
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 758
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby HOOTIE » Sun Feb 13, 2005 3:10 pm

daweasle wrote:soriano by a mile.

In a snake draft soriano is an easy first round pick
Soriano is best 2B unless your league counts Ks against you. Otherwise - he's a an #1 at 2B.

beltre plays at a position where there's at least 6 guys equal to or better than him.

(arod, chavez, rolen, huff, lowell, blaylock) <I would take any of these over beltre. EASILY.

Beltre is a perrenial dissappointment and finally had one good year.


Easily?
One good year?
Try one great year. Lowell over Beltre? That's funny. :-b
When has Huff hit 45 hrs and knocked in 140? I have forgotton. Beltre gets no respect. He did this at age 25. At ages 23-24 he was sick. So in reality, because he wasn't a mvp pre age 23, he's a disappointment. Interesting that so many here doubt Beltre, yet a guy also with ONLY one great year (Santana), is 1st round legit.

I would take Beltre over Soriano. He simply is a better hitter, there's no question there. While 3b is deep, and 2b is shallow, only 1 or 2 3b, might match Beltre.
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15115
(Past Year: 297)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Sunday, Sep. 21
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Toronto at NY Yankees
(1:05 pm)
Washington at Miami
(1:10 pm)
indoors
NY Mets at Atlanta
(1:35 pm)
Boston at Baltimore
(1:35 pm)
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
(1:35 pm)
Chi White Sox at Tampa Bay
(1:40 pm)
indoors
Cleveland at Minnesota
(2:10 pm)
Detroit at Kansas City
(2:10 pm)
Seattle at Houston
(2:10 pm)
LA Dodgers at Chi Cubs
(2:20 pm)
Texas at LA Angels
(3:35 pm)
Philadelphia at Oakland
(4:05 pm)
Arizona at Colorado
(4:10 pm)
San Francisco at San Diego
(4:10 pm)
Cincinnati at St. Louis
(8:05 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact