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Beltre or Soriano

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Postby blackbearabroad » Sat Feb 12, 2005 2:42 pm

I'ld agree, Soriano has been inflated as a hitter in the past due to his fantasy value and status in NY, I'ld actually be suprised if he does bounce back to the form he showed 2 years ago. He's willing to swing at anything anywhere near the vicinity of the plate and couldn't buy a walk, which kills his OBP
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Postby Lofunzo » Sat Feb 12, 2005 2:49 pm

Pedantic wrote:
Secret Avatar wrote:I'd be surprised if Soriano is still on the board at 14, but if he is I would grab him. I'm bullish on Beltre this year, but Soriano is capable of posting overall numbers close to Beltre (people forget Soriano was a 40-40 monster just two years ago) and plays at much thinner 2B.


Precisely. Two years ago. I don't get why folks automatically think that Soriano will "bounce back" to his 40/40 days. I see no evidence to support that assumption. Actually, this seems to be the same thing people are doing with Zito, to a lesser extent. "Oh, he's got that crappy season out of his system -- now he'll go back to exactly the way he was before." ;-7

(BTW, nothing against you personally, Av, just something that irks me in general.)


That's fair but let's turn it around. If you are assuming that Soriano is on a downward trend, how can you assume that Beltre is on such an upward trend?? He hit 60 points over his career average last season, more than doubled his career high in HR, and had almost 40 more RBI than any other season in his career. I might believe that he is just hitting his potential but it's not so clear cut and I like a little more certainty out of my 1st round picks. If someone wants to avoid Soriano, that's cool. Personally, I wouldn't but if I must, I'm certainly not going to spend my 1st pick on Beltre. Not yet at least.
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Postby brandnew » Sat Feb 12, 2005 2:50 pm

Well, going up from your normal is an upward trend...
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Postby Lofunzo » Sat Feb 12, 2005 2:53 pm

brandnew wrote:Well, going up from your normal is an upward trend...


1 season is not a trend. It is just a season. If he repeats last season, then we can start talking about a trend.

I also agree that Soriano loses some value in an OBP league but Beltre will never be mistaken for Berkman at the plate in that regard. If you hit .334 and can't even get an OBP of .400, that ain't so good. :-?

While I agree that OBP makes Beltre more valuable than Soriano (in that regard), the fact that he needs 2 of each IF position more than makes up for it. Pass on Soriano and good luck fielding 2 solid 2B. Pass on Beltre and you can still get 2 solid 3B.
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Postby colt4523 » Sat Feb 12, 2005 3:13 pm

I would definitely take soriano. You could probably score someone like Wright later in the draft for 3rd.
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Postby Pedantic » Sat Feb 12, 2005 3:21 pm

Lofunzo wrote:
brandnew wrote:Well, going up from your normal is an upward trend...


1 season is not a trend. It is just a season. If he repeats last season, then we can start talking about a trend.

I also agree that Soriano loses some value in an OBP league but Beltre will never be mistaken for Berkman at the plate in that regard. If you hit .334 and can't even get an OBP of .400, that ain't so good. :-?

While I agree that OBP makes Beltre more valuable than Soriano (in that regard), the fact that he needs 2 of each IF position more than makes up for it. Pass on Soriano and good luck fielding 2 solid 2B. Pass on Beltre and you can still get 2 solid 3B.


Soriano's downward trend isn't limited to last year. Try looking past his gaudy '03 fantasy numbers. ;-)

While it's true that we may not know for a year or so if Beltre has established a new level of play, I don't think you can say that last year didn't establish an upward trend. In '03 he wasn't great and in '04 he was one of the best. That's headed upward. Obviously, with only one season, it makes it harder to judge whether or not he'll sustain his new level.

However, if we wait until we're ultra-comfortable with a player's level of play, well, that'd be far too late. That'd mean we'd always be a step behind everyone else. I don't think anyone who took a chance on Mora before last year was too disappointed with his performance. Naturally, both players carry some risk, but IMO the chances are better that Beltre continues posting great numbers than Soriano returning to 40/40. If given a choice between players with risk, I would certainly rather have the player headed up rather than the player headed down, regardless of position.
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Postby Lofunzo » Sat Feb 12, 2005 3:37 pm

Pedantic wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:
brandnew wrote:Well, going up from your normal is an upward trend...


1 season is not a trend. It is just a season. If he repeats last season, then we can start talking about a trend.

I also agree that Soriano loses some value in an OBP league but Beltre will never be mistaken for Berkman at the plate in that regard. If you hit .334 and can't even get an OBP of .400, that ain't so good. :-?

While I agree that OBP makes Beltre more valuable than Soriano (in that regard), the fact that he needs 2 of each IF position more than makes up for it. Pass on Soriano and good luck fielding 2 solid 2B. Pass on Beltre and you can still get 2 solid 3B.


Soriano's downward trend isn't limited to last year. Try looking past his gaudy '03 fantasy numbers. ;-)

While it's true that we may not know for a year or so if Beltre has established a new level of play, I don't think you can say that last year didn't establish an upward trend. In '03 he wasn't great and in '04 he was one of the best. That's headed upward. Obviously, with only one season, it makes it harder to judge whether or not he'll sustain his new level.

However, if we wait until we're ultra-comfortable with a player's level of play, well, that'd be far too late. That'd mean we'd always be a step behind everyone else. I don't think anyone who took a chance on Mora before last year was too disappointed with his performance. Naturally, both players carry some risk, but IMO the chances are better that Beltre continues posting great numbers than Soriano returning to 40/40. If given a choice between players with risk, I would certainly rather have the player headed up rather than the player headed down, regardless of position.


That's fair except for 2 things:

1. While Soriano's numbers went down across the board from 2002 to 2003, the difference was neglible. They were all fairly close.
2. The Mota comparison lacks 1 important part. He wasn't drafted in the 1st round. He was drafted much later. It is usually better to go with a known quantity in the 1st round, whenever possible.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sat Feb 12, 2005 4:44 pm

Pedantic wrote:
Secret Avatar wrote:I'd be surprised if Soriano is still on the board at 14, but if he is I would grab him. I'm bullish on Beltre this year, but Soriano is capable of posting overall numbers close to Beltre (people forget Soriano was a 40-40 monster just two years ago) and plays at much thinner 2B.


Precisely. Two years ago. I don't get why folks automatically think that Soriano will "bounce back" to his 40/40 days. I see no evidence to support that assumption. Actually, this seems to be the same thing people are doing with Zito, to a lesser extent. "Oh, he's got that crappy season out of his system -- now he'll go back to exactly the way he was before." ;-7

(BTW, nothing against you personally, Av, just something that irks me in general.)



Amen. 3 years of decling OPS but still round 1 in many leagues. Would want no part of Soriano. Actually would want no part of Beltre either to be honest with you. I would bypass both and look to the next best available, someone like Schmidt or Crawford if they remain on the board.
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Postby brandnew » Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 pm

Yeah, I'd take Beltre late 2nd/early 3rd.
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Postby Rico The Retard » Sat Feb 12, 2005 7:29 pm

i dont think youd get Soriano at 14th overall, but hes the clear choice above Beltre IMO
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