I agree that he is going to low. He's not that big of a drop from Betran. I keep seeing projections on Beltran hitting like .290 with no evidence to support it. Abreau will hit 40 points higher than Beltran, and you don't have to worry about him being in a new park with a bad lineup. I love him as a guy to build a team around.
Amazinz wrote:He tied his career best in just about everything and the ones he didn't he was only off by 1 like 30/31 HRs, 47/48 doubles, he missed his career high in RBI by 5. He has never had a year where he put it all together like he did last year although he's had some great years. I am not willing to call it a career year because he's still young enough to put up a better season but if '04 was "par" then why weren't people drafting him in the 1st and 2nd round like they are this year?
I agree with Amazinz and disagree with you, cow. Some of his individual categories may not have been career highs, but it was the first time (in a while or ever?) that he's put everything together in one season.
[quote:4fef447375="Geek"]The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.[/quote]
I think you guys saying he didnt have a career year because he didnt reach highs in every cat have a really weak argument. Seriously - whats a career yr? Does a player have to set totals in every catagory for it to be considered a career yr? Of course not.
Lets look at this from a fantasy perspective. Once again I turn to the handy Rototimes value calculator and turn back the pages of history...
standard 5x5, 12 team, $260 cap, 9/6 hitter/pitcher split...
1998 - $14.70
1999 - age 25 - $39.87 - 15th best hitter - 25th overall
2000 - age 26 - $30.55 - 28th best hitter - 44th overall
2001 - age 27 - $38.59 - 15th best hitter - 21st overall
2002 - age 28 - $37.52 - 15th best hitter - 24th overall
2003 - age 29 - $31.39 - 24th best hitter - 40th overall
2004 - age 30 - $60.11 - 6th best hitter - 6th overall
Thats why so many of us look at 2004 and say he had a career yr. No one is saying he isnt a very good hitter. He obviously has had good fantasy value over his career - but not '04 good. Thats why he was never even considered 1st rd material prior to this yr.
Now, couple that with the age theory on overall production and SBs which indicates he's now a couple years past his prime age for peaking on the whole and about 5-6 years removed from the prime SB age.
I wont draft him in the first round because I think if you do you are paying for his CAREER YR IN '04.
Each of the past two seasons I have been able to trade for him due to a disgruntled owner. So, if you're gonna select him, be prepared for an icy april. However, he absolutely carried me in the dog days last year.
I'm not saying one or the other is right or wrong... but how does CM get a $22 difference in value, and you get $2? Looking at them they aren't that different but clearly 2004 was his best. I'm not saying that means anything, or that he'll never better it... it was just his best year so far.
"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"
"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
I have him as a keeper but I am not so bullish. He's a great hitter and BA and power numbers should be fine or even better than last year, but expect a big drop in SBs. Bowa gave guys the greenlight like nop one else in the league and it is very unlikely that Manuel will give his #3 hitter nearly as many SB opportunities. I think anyone who has Abreu penciled in for anything approaching 40 SBs will be sorely disappointed. Something more toward 20 is far more likely. Still nice production, but 20 less SBs makes him a lot less attractive, especially in a a roto league.