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How about a SP at the END of the 1st round IF....

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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sat Feb 12, 2005 12:23 pm

The Cow wrote:Simply put Schmidt has the better resume. Prior makes a nice cover letter, but when you look at what they have done well its Schmidt.

It is easy to argue that the 24 year old Prior has more upside than the 32 year old Schmidt, but what you want at pick 11 is a safe pick, not a bust. As for Prior upside maybe if healthy he posts a 3.20 ERA and 1.08 WHIP like Schmidt has done.

Now who is better if both are healthy? If both are healthy they are about equal. BUT I will take the guy that did not have shoulder AND elbow problems last year.

Schmidt is 32 and in his prime on a winning team. Whats not to like?

COW


You really think Scmidt has the better resume? I guess I only see 3 good years after 3 years of battling injuries and prior to all that he was a starter for 3 years and put up poor numbers from a fantasy perspective.

Prior on the other hand has only pitched one full season - he was called up late in '02, and was injured all of '04. In that only full season he beat Schmidt's best season:

Prior '03 - 211 ip/ 18W/2.43ERA/1.1WHIP/245K

I know you are thinking "Nu-uh Scmidt had better%s in '03 and more ks in '04". And of course I will counter, "yes, but he didnt put it all together in one season like Prior in his only full yr trying, plus he needed more ip to have that higher K total."

I really hope everyone reading this knows that Prior has the higher ceiling, but because he was injured last yr he is cionsidered a greater injury risk. If you draft Schmidt ahead of Prior you are doing so based on safety - not ceiling, which is fine, just as long as you understand that Prior does have the higher ceiling.
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Postby The Jury » Sat Feb 12, 2005 12:36 pm

I'd go with a pitcher, as your initial thoughts were.

Like Corn said earlier, there are only a handful of true aces, though there are a bunch of really good tier 2 pitchers that you could get around #30. I'd take the best big bat to fall to you, along with one of Prior, Schmidt, Pedro, or Schilling.

I'd go with Schmidt. He's awesome, and the healthiest of those 4 going into this year ;-D
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Postby TheRock » Sat Feb 12, 2005 12:54 pm

Shamsky69 wrote:Thanks Mr. Rock. But listen, in a 10 team H2H, closers are far less valuable than in other leagues - roto and such. In my league, with an elite SP who is pitching twice a week, you can almost guarantee yourself 5 wins out of 12 possible. Your Gagne/closer argument doesn't really apply under these circumstances.


Lot of assumptions there. Teams usually play 6 games a week. I know, sometimes 7. So one, sometimes two starters get two starts in a week, so a pitchers starts twice in a week every four weeks or so. You're assuming 1) your ace puts up 2 great starts in that week 2) Your ace is still healthy and producing at a higher level than the other guys ace 3) Your opponent doesn't similarly have an ace pitching twice that week. 4) Your opponent didn't stack his roster full of power hitters then load up on 2-start pitchers for the week, winning W's, K's, and saves since you don't go after closers.

Shamsky69 wrote:A gamble, yes - but last year I was in the same position, took Manny and Maggs back-to-back at 10/11 and we all know what happened there.


Yeah, I know. Nobody's guaranteeing you anything. We're just saying do the math. If you don't want to look back at several years just look at last year. None of the pitchers drafted early produced what was expected from them, and the best pitchers in baseball were typically drafted in the 3rd and 6th round. You're talking about reaching to fill your starting pitching, the must abundant and least predictable of all positions. The question really is do any one of Schmidt, Pedro, Prior, or Schilling stand out so far from the others that they give you an advantage worth blowing a top 10 pick? Can't believe we've got people arguing that they do.

But... sounds like you've made up your mind. Hope it works out for you.
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Postby Shamsky69 » Sat Feb 12, 2005 4:57 pm

We're just saying do the math.


Who in God's name is 'we'? Who are you, Lebron James?

I've heard plenty of differing opinions so far in this post. And let's not forget that #11 is my second round pick.

Loading up on closers early is a false strategy. I grabbed Cordero, Kolb, and Lidge late - and I do mean late - in my draft last year and killed everyone in that category.
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Postby duckbillgates » Sat Feb 12, 2005 6:17 pm

Johan and the Unit are in a tier by themselves. Schmidt is not a late-first- or early-second-rounder, in my opinion, although he will be good.
Sheets could very possibly fall to you in the third. People are convinced he won't get wins. If he can maintain anything close to his ERA from last year, he literally just needs a few bounces to go his way to win 15 or so.
I think stud starters are undervalued in roto — people think your nuts if you take one of the top two starters when any of the big hitters are still on the board, but the starter's impact is huge, particularly in leagues with maximum and minimum innings pitched.
That having been said, i think the value of starters plummets in H2H leagues. Every league I've been in, I've done the same thing with the same good results.
That is this: get more starts than your opponents.
Don't use more than one bench spot for a hitter. Get your starting lineup set and stay put.
Get three closers, and either a fourth or a top middle reliever. If you have three closers and your opponent has one, it won't matter if the one is Gagne.
Finally, fill the rest of your lineup with solid starters. Avoid guys who will kill you rather than targeting the stud pitchers.
If you get in twice as many starts as your opponent, you have a leg up on wins and strikeouts, even if his pitchers are better than your top guys.
This, combined with the closer trick, can give you three of the five categories every week. And you've always got a shot at ERA and WHIP, depending on how things break for you.
Finally, try to avoid spot starters (picking up a pitcher for his start the next day, then dumping him). Yes, it works under the guidelines I laid out, but it kind of cheap. I always feel a little dirty afterwards.
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Postby The Cow » Mon Feb 14, 2005 1:15 am

CM your whole basis on Prior having a higher ceiling is based on one good year. Since that one good year Prior has been injured elbow and arm. Wouldn't this in some way lower his ceiling?? Or do we just assume his arm is healthy?

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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Feb 14, 2005 1:32 am

The Cow wrote:CM your whole basis on Prior having a higher ceiling is based on one good year. Since that one good year Prior has been injured elbow and arm. Wouldn't this in some way lower his ceiling?? Or do we just assume his arm is healthy?

COW


no - absolutely not. The vast majority of pitchers get injured sometime in their careers. Because of science and medicine, they get better as well - often times stronger than before their injury. To assume an injured player is an injury risk after he has taken the proper steps to rehabilitate, is wrong - they are not much more of an injury risk than the average SP's injury risk. My theory isnt just based on his one good yr - its that he was supposed to have that good yr and he did. We arent talking about your avg highly touted young SP - we are talking about Mark Prior - the guy most scouts said was the best pitcher to come around in a decade or more.
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Postby The Cow » Mon Feb 14, 2005 1:45 am

Weren't the scouts saying the same things about Josh Beckett the year prior to Prior's arrival??? They were saying how Beckett was going to be the next great pitcher. Wheras blister boy is a quality pitcher no way do I take him ahead of Schmidt. There is a time to put down the scouting mags and pick up the "what has he done in the bigs" mags.

One year is not enough to judge a pitcher on, no matter how highly touted.

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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Feb 14, 2005 1:47 am

The Cow wrote:Weren't the scouts saying the same things about Josh Beckett the year prior to Prior's arrival??? They were saying how Beckett was going to be the next great pitcher. Wheras blister boy is a quality pitcher no way do I take him ahead of Schmidt. There is a time to put down the scouting mags and pick up the "what has he done in the bigs" mags.

One year is not enough to judge a pitcher on, no matter how highly touted.

COW


So, you dont have Santana above Schmidt either then?

p.s. - where can I pick up one of those "what has he done in the bigs" mags? I dont buy fantasy mags, so maybe I might be missing something with yours.
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Postby The Cow » Mon Feb 14, 2005 1:59 am

Lets agree to disagree on Prior and Schmidt. In most drafts these two will only be separated by a couple picks. As for Johan Santana, well that is another story, though a good example of a pitcher with only 1 good year of starting. Suffice it to say that I would much rather draft Schmidt a little later than grab Johan earlier.

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