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How about a SP at the END of the 1st round IF....

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Postby Shamsky69 » Fri Feb 11, 2005 9:43 pm

Hey Fantasyfiend - Relax buddy, it's more like conversation I'm looking for.

This is, like, you know, a forum!

Say chill.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Feb 11, 2005 10:15 pm

Absolutely. First of all, if RJ or Johan are there consider yourself fortunate. Thatd be a heck of a steal. But if I were in your position, Id probably want an ace too. Sheets, Peavy, Oswalt, Wood, Halladay, Hudson, Zambrano - these are not true fantasy aces in my book. Clearly a step below the elites. Give me Prior at the turn, but obviously you can make a strong case for Schmidt and even Pedro. I think Schilling is a bit more of an injury risk, but then again, Im not a doctor and dont know how well he has healed. I think they are a fair enough risk to take ahead of that next tier.

By the way - welcome to the cafe. ;-D
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Postby TheRock » Fri Feb 11, 2005 10:45 pm

Shamsky69 wrote:Yeah, but this is what I'm talking about. All these aces left for me in round 3? Who wants Peavy as their ace, really?
...
And c'mon, don't tell me Prior's gonna be hangin' around at #30. That's crazy people talk.


Good points, but you could say the same thing about every position. If you were hoping for a solid closer, as most of us are, then you if don't grab Gagne at #11 you'll never see him at 30 and then there's huge dropoff to the next tier. If you don't grab Rolen or Beltre here, they won't be back and you're stuck with Blalock or Mora or maybe ARam. Bottom of the order sucks. Sure, back to back picks then 18 players drop off the board before you're up again. Those are a great many great players you need to find a way to do without.

But you've chosen to focus on your ace. I'd argue that that's not the best place to focus. This time last year noone even considered Unit or Santana in the first round. It was Prior, Pedro, Schilling and maybe Halladay. Ask the guys that argued for taking those guys early how their season turned out. Yes, a pitcher who dominates can be one of the most valuable players in fantasy, but guys with the injury histories of Schmidt, Pedro, and even Prior are too risky to base a team on.

But I think what fantasy fiend was trying to state was that it's your decision, we can only state the case against doing so. It's a gamble. You may win, you may lose. More often than not people who reach for starting pitching early live to regret it. But, it's your nickel.
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Postby Shamsky69 » Fri Feb 11, 2005 11:16 pm

Thanks Mr. Rock. But listen, in a 10 team H2H, closers are far less valuable than in other leagues - roto and such. In my league, with an elite SP who is pitching twice a week, you can almost guarantee yourself 5 wins out of 12 possible. Your Gagne/closer argument doesn't really apply under these circumstances.

A gamble, yes - but last year I was in the same position, took Manny and Maggs back-to-back at 10/11 and we all know what happened there. Granted, right before he blew the knee I dealt him for Oswalt and a deadbeat A.Huff in one of the great fantasy steals of all time(we pay $500 each to join).

Cornbread, tell me why - if you were in my position - you'd take Prior at 11 ahead of Schmidt. Also, I don't really think it'd be a miracle if Santana/Unit were available at 10. Sheesh, I've seen Unit go at twelve in the Yahoo(Funston)and ESPN expert's draft and we all know how pitching obsessed those monkeys are.
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Postby Jackie Treehorn » Fri Feb 11, 2005 11:25 pm

I'd go with two bats. Yea, you got burned on Ordonez, but it's more likely you'll get burned on a SP than a big hitter. Schmidt, Unit, hell all of 'em have substantial injury risk when it comes right down to it. If you feel you need a couple big starters, take two with your 3rd and 4th. You still have a good shot at getting two 17-18 game winners. Just my 2 cents. Good luck.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Feb 11, 2005 11:31 pm

Shamsky69 wrote:Cornbread, tell me why - if you were in my position - you'd take Prior at 11 ahead of Schmidt. Also, I don't really think it'd be a miracle if Santana/Unit were available at 10. Sheesh, I've seen Unit go at twelve in the Yahoo(Funston)and ESPN expert's draft and we all know how pitching obsessed those monkeys are.


Funston and the experts :-o

anyway...

I like Prior's upside more. Trust me in that I know how good Schmidt can be, I had him last yr just like you. Its just that I think Prior has the higher ceiling - especially in Ks. Since I think their %s will be very close - and Wins are more of a crapshoot - with SF and CHC being a bit of a push, I have to look at K/IP and age factor. Prior has a higher K rate and at 24 still has yet to hit his prime. Schmidt while being a very good K pitcher in his own right isnt up to Prior levels and some may argue that at 32 its unlikely he will get better. Obviously Prior's injury is a concern - but I do believe players heal and can return better than before - in fact Im pretty sure most pitcher go through injury periods, right?
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Postby The Cow » Sat Feb 12, 2005 1:50 am

No way do you take Prior over Schmidt. Prior was battling shoulder and elbow problems last year, that is just scary. As for Schmidt if not for his groin injury late in the year, he wins the CY with 20+wins an ERA around 2.6 and a sub 1 WHIP. But if Schmidt did have year like that he would not be available at #11, consider the groin injury a good thing as it makes him available. Prior finished the year with an ERA of 4.02 and a WHIP of 1.35 by the way.

COW

Schmidt finished with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP so this is not even close. Don't get caught up in the Prior hype consider him damaged goods.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sat Feb 12, 2005 2:23 am

Cow - which one is better if both are fully healthy?
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Postby The Cow » Sat Feb 12, 2005 2:34 am

Simply put Schmidt has the better resume. Prior makes a nice cover letter, but when you look at what they have done well its Schmidt.

It is easy to argue that the 24 year old Prior has more upside than the 32 year old Schmidt, but what you want at pick 11 is a safe pick, not a bust. As for Prior upside maybe if healthy he posts a 3.20 ERA and 1.08 WHIP like Schmidt has done.

Now who is better if both are healthy? If both are healthy they are about equal. BUT I will take the guy that did not have shoulder AND elbow problems last year.

Schmidt is 32 and in his prime on a winning team. Whats not to like?

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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Sat Feb 12, 2005 10:28 am

Shamsky69 wrote:Thanks Mr. Rock. But listen, in a 10 team H2H, closers are far less valuable than in other leagues - roto and such. In my league, with an elite SP who is pitching twice a week, you can almost guarantee yourself 5 wins out of 12 possible. Your Gagne/closer argument doesn't really apply under these circumstances.



i wouldnt so easily dismiss closers. last year gagne and lidge would have gotten you 13 wins, 74 saves, 2.03 era, 0.92 whip, and 271k in 177ip. if you dont like oswalt as your ace then build a three headed monster. get oswalt in the 3rd and maybe add mulder and mussina in the 5th and 6th.

i dont know why i am bothering typing this cause it seems you already made up your mind. do what you want to do so you have no one but yourself to praise if it works or blame if it fails.
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