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How about a SP at the END of the 1st round IF....

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How about a SP at the END of the 1st round IF....

Postby Shamsky69 » Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:57 pm

Hi guys. Longtime reader, longtime 'guest' poster, first time legitimate....

Traditionally I've been of the opinion that SPs can wait a few rounds; as a general rule, I aim to have 4 mashers and 2 SPs after my first 6 picks, with the bats mostly at the outset.

However, this year - with my annual late pick due to dominance - I've been thinking a tad differently. I pick last in a 10-team, ultra-competative H2H league. Since my 3rd pick won't be until #30, I'm feeling the pressure to grab an ace at pick 1/2. Even if Santana/Unit are gone, I'd probably still grab Schmidt to go along with Abreu/Manny (or whoever else is there). It's not that I think this is high for Schmidt(although I'd def. take Unit) - I mean, he is 2nd round material, it just so happens that my 2nd rounder is #11!

I just have trouble buying the argument that there's a ton of aces to be had this year in rounds as late as 3-4. Who actually thinks that O.Perez will win 15 with a sub 3.30? Who wants to bet on Mulder as their ace in round 4? The fact that Johan's dominance carried me last year, especially in weeks that I could pitch him twice, made me think long and hard about what I NEED this year. I agree that all this could be most relevant in H2H leagues.

Does anyone else, specifically those picking late in H2H's, agree that this might be the right move? I mean, c'mon, who will be left at #30? Zambrano? c'mon now....

Specifically with regard to Schmidt: I happen to believe the popular opinion that the Giants will be the NL team to beat this year and I feel that Schmidt is going to be massive. So I wouldn't be that depressed if Unit/Santana were gone - I'd have one of this year's big three and add someone like Burnett/Harden as a #2 in round 6 or something.

Comments?
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Postby TheRock » Fri Feb 11, 2005 6:17 pm

10 Team league, 10th pick? I think the only pitchers you consider there are Santana and Unit. And if they're gone, that means two of Pujols, ARod, Vlad, Beltran, Helton, Manny, Barry, Soriano, and Abreu are still there. I guess what I'm saying is these nine plus Santana/Unit are the top 11 in my book. Take whichever 2 come to you. Plenty of pitching will make it back to you. You might see Oswalt fall to 39, possibly Peavy, you mentioned Perez, I like Kerry Wood this year, Hudson, Zambrano. Or even wait til 5/6 and you still might get Halladay, Mussina, Mulder, Burnett. 10/11 overall is too early to start reaching for starters.
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Postby Ed Whitson » Fri Feb 11, 2005 6:30 pm

I have the seventh overall and am facing the same dilemma concerning Schmidt. I will have the 7 and 14 and plan on either a bat or Santana/Unit in the first. If I don't get a pitcher, I was considering Schmidt in the second, his numbers shouldn't be that far off from Johan. Let us know what you decide to do.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Fri Feb 11, 2005 6:35 pm

i would probably only go for unit or johan at top 11. if they arent there i would look to go with bats at 10 and 11 and possibly, if the right pitchers are there, going with pitchers with your 3rd and 4th rounders. if you dont get a number 1 pitcher you feel comfortable with, you may even end up grabbing 3 pitchers in the top 6 rounds. if you dont have a top heavy pitching staff, then develop a deep pitching staff.
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Fri Feb 11, 2005 6:40 pm

I'd take hitters unless Unit/Santana are still on the board. There will be plenty of aces left in round 3 - especially since it's a 10 team league. Pedro could fall to #30 overall. Oswalt could. Prior possibly. Any would be a great ace.

Take a couple of hitters.
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Fri Feb 11, 2005 7:16 pm

I'm gonna side with all these guys - rock, mcnugent, AA.

Johan or Unit I'd take at 10/11. Otherwise, in a 10-team league I'd grab some hitters and wait another round. Somebody will be there.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Fri Feb 11, 2005 8:23 pm

i'd take prior over schmidt if you absolutely cant wait for a pitcher (which i dont see a valid reason why you cant)
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Postby Shamsky69 » Fri Feb 11, 2005 9:02 pm

Yeah, but this is what I'm talking about. All these aces left for me in round 3? Who wants Peavy as their ace, really? Oswalt helped me win $2,000 last year and I love him but really, can't you just picture his arm falling off? Or for that matter, his entire upper body!

I really don't think the Shea-backed Pedro is going to be around for me in the third. Remember, I'm #30 in the 3rd.

Also, I'm feeling like there's a huge drop-off in mashers after the top 6. Who really wants an obviously in decline Soriano with a top 11 pick? I'd take him at 15, perhaps.

And c'mon, don't tell me Prior's gonna be hangin' around at #30. That's crazy people talk.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Fri Feb 11, 2005 9:17 pm

If your strong in your strategy and has been successful for you in the past what are you doing asking for advice?
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Fri Feb 11, 2005 9:20 pm

Shamsky69 wrote:Yeah, but this is what I'm talking about. All these aces left for me in round 3? Who wants Peavy as their ace, really? Oswalt helped me win $2,000 last year and I love him but really, can't you just picture his arm falling off? Or for that matter, his entire upper body!

I really don't think the Shea-backed Pedro is going to be around for me in the third. Remember, I'm #30 in the 3rd.

Also, I'm feeling like there's a huge drop-off in mashers after the top 6. Who really wants an obviously in decline Soriano with a top 11 pick? I'd take him at 15, perhaps.

And c'mon, don't tell me Prior's gonna be hangin' around at #30. That's crazy people talk.


Well, it's hard to say. I like Soriano enough to draft him in the top 11. Very easily.
But as for where people will go, that's kind of a crap shoot.

Let's look at a few mock drafts and who was available at #30 overall, pitchingwise (for our purposes, I'll just list the first 5 pitchers taken pick 30 or later):

Mock Draft 1: Tim Hudson/Carlos Zambrano/Jake Peavy/Eric Gagne/Oliver Perez
Mock Draft 2: Ben Sheets/Roy Oswalt/Gagne/Zambrano/Hudson
Mock Draft 3: Schilling/Oswalt/Zambrano/Mo Rivera/Kerry Wood
Sporting News Expert Mock: Rivera/Oswalt/Peavy/Lidge/Hudson/Pedro
this one: Schilling, Oswalt, Sheets, Hudson, Rivera


That should give you a good idea. With pick #30, you could very possibly grab Hudson or Oswalt and maybe Pedro, depending.
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