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Postby Sparkplugs » Sat Feb 12, 2005 12:44 pm

I think a lot of people are looking for the wrong thing when looking at contract years. People who are analyzing stats are analyzing league wide. The thing with contract years isn't that everyone in a contract year will perform better, but a few out of the group will. I think this proves out each year. Take Beltre last year, or Javy Lopez the year before.

Each year there are a few guys who work harder in the off season, maybe hit the juice, and come into their contract year looking for big numbers.

So when I look at players in their contract year, I'm not expecting all of them to perform better, I'm looking for those one or two talented under-achievers who may step it up with money on the line.
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Postby rich101682 » Sat Feb 12, 2005 12:53 pm

Sparkplugs wrote:I think a lot of people are looking for the wrong thing when looking at contract years. People who are analyzing stats are analyzing league wide. The thing with contract years isn't that everyone in a contract year will perform better, but a few out of the group will. I think this proves out each year. Take Beltre last year, or Javy Lopez the year before.

Each year there are a few guys who work harder in the off season, maybe hit the juice, and come into their contract year looking for big numbers.

So when I look at players in their contract year, I'm not expecting all of them to perform better, I'm looking for those one or two talented under-achievers who may step it up with money on the line.


True. Look for someone to come into Spring Training having lost a lot of weight/gotten into much better shape than they were before. That's the one thing that struck me about Javy in his contract year.
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Postby Woolly » Wed Feb 16, 2005 12:10 am

I think Javy had also recently been divorced. Getting rid of the ole ball-n-chain would help lighten his load!
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Postby lesgrant » Wed Feb 16, 2005 12:00 pm

Sparkplugs wrote:I think a lot of people are looking for the wrong thing when looking at contract years. People who are analyzing stats are analyzing league wide. The thing with contract years isn't that everyone in a contract year will perform better, but a few out of the group will. I think this proves out each year. Take Beltre last year, or Javy Lopez the year before.

Each year there are a few guys who work harder in the off season, maybe hit the juice, and come into their contract year looking for big numbers.

So when I look at players in their contract year, I'm not expecting all of them to perform better, I'm looking for those one or two talented under-achievers who may step it up with money on the line.


I agree with the logic. But why limit yourself to just contract year players given that there is no overall correlation? There are more sleepers to be found who are not in contract years. Moreover the contract year myth is a common one that most fantasy players buy into because the media buys into it. You are setting yourself up to compete with fellow owners for a small group of players, all of which are the same roll of the dice that comes with non-contract players.
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Postby thaklanksta » Wed Feb 16, 2005 1:46 pm

I dont agree that Contract year = careeer year possibility but I do think it is worth taking into consideration when deciding on player A or player B in a draft.
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Postby Kingctb27 » Wed Feb 16, 2005 1:53 pm

I agree with Spark plugs. Great Post.
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Postby wrveres » Wed Feb 16, 2005 3:15 pm

Sparkplugs wrote:I think a lot of people are looking for the wrong thing when looking at contract years. People who are analyzing stats are analyzing league wide. The thing with contract years isn't that everyone in a contract year will perform better, but a few out of the group will. I think this proves out each year. Take Beltre last year, or Javy Lopez the year before.

Each year there are a few guys who work harder in the off season, maybe hit the juice, and come into their contract year looking for big numbers.

So when I look at players in their contract year, I'm not expecting all of them to perform better, I'm looking for those one or two talented under-achievers who may step it up with money on the line.


so who are the one of two talented achievers this year ...?

Last season, if you picked, lets say ..

Renteria
Glaus
Nomar
Kent
Lowe
O. Cabrera
Dye
Percival
Hidalgo
Fullmer

well then you would have chosen poorly now wouldn't you ... ?


You see, for every one or two players you can name that performed well in thier contract year, I can name 6 that didn't.
Its a myth .. and you would be best served doing your research elsewhere.

just my.02
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Postby Garry26 » Wed Feb 16, 2005 3:34 pm

YanksROKurSOX wrote:I have read that article before which debunks the theories but I'm still interested in the players because the other people in my league have not (read the article).


When it comes to "sleepers" the knowledge of your league mates is important. If they know a player then hes not a sleeper because a sleeper is someone no one knows about. However, in this case, knowing or not knowing about this arcticle is irrelevant. They wont be influenced either way. You wont even be able to sucker them into thinking the free agent theory is valid. Since anyone can see it doesnt work like that.

If it were that easy then there would be "contract year lists" flying around along with cheat sheets every year. If your leaguemates are stupid enough to believe in the contract year theory, you dont need to go through the trouble of telling them about it.
I love mock drafts.
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Postby cubbies1 » Wed Feb 16, 2005 5:16 pm

Jose Guillen
Johnny Damon
Paul Konerko
Carlos Lee
Aaron Boone
Tim Hudson
Mark Mulder
bret boone
aramis ramirez
sammy sosa
juan pierre
preston wilson
shawn green
braden looper
billy wagner
jason isringhausen
brian giles
trevor hoffman

are a few possible free agents for next year
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Postby WittyC » Wed Feb 16, 2005 5:21 pm

cubbies1 wrote:Jose Guillen
Johnny Damon
Paul Konerko
Carlos Lee
Aaron Boone
Tim Hudson
Mark Mulder
bret boone
aramis ramirez
sammy sosa
juan pierre
preston wilson
shawn green
braden looper
billy wagner
jason isringhausen
brian giles
trevor hoffman

are a few possible free agents for next year


Add Burnitz to the list... then in one year, picture Juan Pierre in Cubby-Blue, baby (maybe looper, too!)
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