orange12 wrote:Registered_Guest wrote:Derrick Lowe -- National League & solid pitcher's park. Even if he isn't as good as his best AL season, I see him with an ERA right around 3.50.
No way. Dodger stadium isn't that magical where by a 5.00+ ERA pitcher can drop to 3.50. In fact, only one pitcher (Odalis Perez) of the 6 pitchers who had significant amounts of starts for the Dodgers last year had an ERA under 4.00. Another dimension of Lowe you have to recognize is that he had insane run support, 7.29 runs/9IP, with Boston. That's something that he won't remotely get with the Dodgers. I see Lowe posting last year's Jeff Weaver numbers at best. (13-13, 4.01ERA, 1.30WHIP)
Thank you. All of Lowe's value the last couple of years has come from his high win totals. As has been discussed on here a million times wins are not a reflection of a pitcher but rather the team as a whole. Moving from Boston to LA is not only not going to lower Derek Lowe's era or whip by any substantial margin, I agree with .25 at most, but it is also going to take away what gave him value to begin with. Namely run support. I wouldn't expect more than 14 wins at the absolute most. I've watched Lowe every start since he's been in Boston and people expecting a big year this year do not know him and his season long battles with his own psyche. My projections this year would be 9-14 wins 4.60 era 1.30 whip 125 k's.