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Tough Choices in the 3rd and 4th Round

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Postby jbird669 » Fri Feb 11, 2005 1:40 pm

Juhlz wrote:Sheets #1 on the list, uh, no.



Don't penalize the man cuz he plays on a poor team.
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:11 pm

Schmidt
Sheets
Schilling
Oswalt
Zambrano
Peavy
...et al

then,
Lidge
FRodriguez
Rivera
Nathan
• Aaron Hill: Avoids DL Jul 12 (RotoWire)
• Aaron Hill: Headed for DL Jul 12 (RotoWire)
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Postby Deuce » Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:30 pm

Actually you should penalize a guy because of his team. Losing teams have far fewer win and save opportunities. When drafting a starter, it may not be as important as with closer. The starter can still get his K's and era, but the wins will be scarce. With a closer, no saves can be problematic for certain categories. All depend on the league structure. That said:

Schmidt - if the hammy is fine should be your first choice
Oswalt
Zambrano
Schilling - not sure how much he'll play


Lidge
Rivera
K-Rod
Nathan

All depends on what their respective teams have to help their cause.
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Postby Rico The Retard » Fri Feb 11, 2005 7:02 pm

Sheets is good and i like him a lot and should be ranked high but i still like Schmidt better than him and i think if he gets healthy he will be doing great
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Postby ravenmad22 » Fri Feb 11, 2005 9:00 pm

Wins are a fickle category. The dodgers won the west last year with a good record and Odalis Perez pitched GREAT all year long. He only had single digit wins to show for it. Matt Clement got screwed last year as well.

Sheets may win more games next year than people think. That offense is improved. I'd put him right after schmidt on that list.
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Postby jbird669 » Mon Feb 14, 2005 4:51 pm

Predicting wins for pitchers is like predicting when the wars in the Middle East will end. You really can't. As far as skills goes, Sheets is superior. But on the basis of what we're comparing to, including those fickle categories, then go with Schmidt #1. He plays for a better team.
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Postby looptid » Mon Feb 14, 2005 8:33 pm

I'm a bit shocked by a few of the placements for Sheets and Rodriguez. If people don't think Sheets will pitch as well as he did last season, then I'd agree, but to drop him in the rankings because of a predicted lack of run support? Wins have the best chance of fluctuating amongst the four categories used in standard 5x5 leagues for starting pitchers. Then there are still K, ERA, and WHIP to contend with. Among the aforementioned starters, Sheets lead everyone in both K and WHIP, and was second only to Peavey in ERA last season.

I also like Rodriguez as much as any of the other three. All four play for playoff contenders, and should see plenty of oppportunities. Only Lidge (14.9) posted a comperable K/9 to Rodriguez (13.2) . Rivera (7.6) and Nathan (11.1) probably won't reach triple digits in punch-outs. Rivera should have the greatest number of save opportunities, but I would think the extra 60 strike-outs Lidge or Rodriguez will post if Rivera hits 50 saves again, something he has done twice in eight years of closing full time, should cancel out or provide a better return than the extra five potential saves. Nathan seems like a clear fourth choice (and that's coming from a Twins fan). He doesn't ring up batters like Lidge or Rodriguez, and doesn't play for a team that will win 100 games like Rivera. Given the choice between Lidge and Rodriguez, I'd lean towards Rodriguez, based on how the Astros overused Lidge last year, and their extreme lack of depth and protection in the bullpen compared to what the Angels will surround Rodriguez with.
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Postby The Jury » Mon Feb 14, 2005 8:37 pm

Definitely go with Schmidt, and if you want a stud closer in the 4th, take Lidge. I think Lidge in the 4th would be alrite, considering Gagne could go in the second or third round... :-?
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