Normally I like middle of the round picks such as 4-8 but this year I would rather have #1 to get A-Rod first then on the wrap around its entirely possible to pick up Ortiz and Prior or something like that depending on how the picks go earlier. No matter what I think the number 1 position is the place to be this year due to all the great depth at most positions.
I really don't think the position is the biggest overall factor in winning or losing a league. Like the old saying goes, "it's the middle of the draft that wins or loses it." I haven't noticed a trend, but I would like to see a statistic on what percentage of leagues won are by people with the top three picks.
4-7 I only do one league and it's 12 (or maybe 14 this year...) team H2H 13x13 categories. For some reason, w/ that pick, I think you get a better shot at the 2-10 rounds of kind of having the decision as to when to start various things like relievers, starters, etc. and get better cracks at the first part of the various 'tiers' of players so you can more effectively determine which position is 'next'. I'd rather have THEM going 'AcidRock is grabbing RP [or SS, or C, or whatever...], I'd better grab one' than going 'yikes, there go all the catchers, I hope that there's a decent one left for me'.
W/ this type of draft location, I think that I can get away w/ 'punting' categories to get dudes like Ramon Hernandez or Uribe who I think may put up nice numbers w/o being a 'top' guy at their respective positions and stock up on OF/1B/3B monsters and SP in the early rounds. Just a theory though as I've not had the opportunity for those slots draftwise. We are going to pick the draft order this week sometime though...muwahahahaha....
Mustangs989 wrote:If you want a good thread about who to take #1 go here Personally, I like the 3 position as I'm guaranteed one of Pujols,Vlad, Beltran
The difference in value between the 1st 3 or so picks and the rest of the draft is HUGE. The dropoff is substantial enough to make a top pick much more valuable than anything else. At the same time, the drop in value between the 12th best player and the 24th best player isnt nearly as steep as the dropoff after the fist few. To illustrate, I will once gain go back to Rototimes (I apologize if I seem like I continue to beat the same drum, but I really dont think people are picking up on the concept of value - and regardless of if you like rototimes, espn, or any other value calculator, the results will be similar with the elite tier being much more valuable):
Pujols - 64
Beltran - 61
Vlad - 58
Helton - 53.50
There is already a $10 drop in value from the first pick to the 4th pick. There are 10 players in the 44-53 range and more in the next tier. Obviously the point is not that player x is #1 and player y is #2, but rather how much more valuable is player x than player y.
Arod is not a top 3 pick, but thats a different thread.
I like the middle pick (4-8), so I don't have to wait a whole round before picking again. I also like it because I can grab someone from a scarce position, a la Miguel Tejada.
Baseball is a game where a curve is an optical illusion, a screwball can be a pitch or a person, stealing is legal and you can spit anywhere you like except in the umpire's eye or on the ball. ~Jim Murray