It's rather ironic that I am on this side of the discussion, because I usually prefer a solid, long-term track record.
For those saying it's 1.5 years - look again. He's had 2 (!) years worth of starts.
Yeah, for 2002 and 2003 some of the stats were from the bullpen. So what? He was great there too.
The reason I think he's a first rounder is two fold. His %'s and ratios keep improving. This to me is a big indicator. Some expect a big drop off (ala Zito). Is it possible? Of course. There is a big difference between Santana and the rest though. His success wasn't sudden and he's been slowed in that accension. Maybe this doesn't mean anything to you, but I think it was ideal. In any case, his K's aren't going anywhere. A pitcher like him will always get K's (like Ryan, just without the walks) reagrdless of how well he pitches.
His wins were nice last year and might be lower next year. But RJ had lousy wins (comparably) so I don't feel it's a strong argument.
The biggest difference though is that this guy hasn't just appeared from nowhere like Peavy or Perez, who were touted highly but didn;t reach potential until last year. They truly have no track record. If you lump them in the same category, then I agree you should wait 3-4 rounds and take one of them. If they can repeat, they'll put up similar numbers.
But Johan has shown us 2 years worth of stats. Over that time, he's only improved. I find it unlikely that he'll suddenly forget how to pitch. I guess time will tell.
To add yet another spin on this, I say let's wait for the season to end. Last year, I bet that I could count on no hands the amount of people that would have said that was worth a 1st rounder yet he proved everyone wrong. Now, he has a dominant season (less 2 months) under his belt and he is being discarded?? Let's let the season finish before we profess, shall we?? People whip out stat after stat showing how he will fail when no one knows what will happen. I just love it when people decide that they know for sure what will happen. If that's the case, let me back you and we will play $$ leagues all across the world.
I don't want to look like an idiot here but I just wanted to stress that no one knows for sure.
Of course no one knows but isn't that what this forum is for: to bounce ideas off one another trying to get some opinions from those who know a good amount about fantasy baseball. As far as your response to my post I understand that it is possible to have a bad draft in a Fantasy NFL league and still recover but for the most part it is much easier to do this given the face you have a ton more time to make up ground in statistics races. (for roto leagues)
I guess to me, the way I read the real question, and its one thats asked quite often around here:
Are SPs worthy of 1st rd picks?
The answer is yes. The proof is in the historical value numbers. Last yr was the first time since at least 1999 that a batter was the most valuable fantasy player. You can argue scarcity or reliability till you are blue in the face. The facts arent going to change.
red_sox_fan2004 wrote:Of course no one knows but isn't that what this forum is for: to bounce ideas off one another trying to get some opinions from those who know a good amount about fantasy baseball. As far as your response to my post I understand that it is possible to have a bad draft in a Fantasy NFL league and still recover but for the most part it is much easier to do this given the face you have a ton more time to make up ground in statistics races. (for roto leagues)
Fair point but that almost reiterates what I was saying. Threads like these always start off as bouncing ideas and then it always turns into an I'm right and you're wrong type of thing when no one knows for sure. You could post formula after formula and no one would really know until after the season.
Yep SP's can be worth a first round pick. Not this year though, IMO. We don't have any guys who stand out from the rest like we used to with Maddux, Pedro, and RJ. People say RJ is in a league of his own, or Santana is, but I see a huge lump of first tier players, none of whom I'd sepnd a 1st rounder on since I can easily get a comparable player in the 3rd round. If you think RJ will post vintage RJ numbers, or Santana will continue where he left off, then sure they'd be a worth a first round pick. I just don't think they will pitch as well as most people think.
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Dark Knight wrote:I problably am not qualified to reply to this thread, since I never draft pitching in the first 4 rounds of my draft. I have always had more luck finding quality waiver wire pitching than hitting. I have only been playing fantasy baseball since the 1998 season though.
Hey! A kindred spirit! I also generally wait until rounds 5-7 to draft pitching, and the strategy has served me well. But I would still take a talent like Santana in the late first (deep leagues only), before any 3B except Arod, before Suzuki or Crawford. He's young, he's had his arm pampered over the first few seasons in the majors, and he's been dominant over that stretch with the exception of a few months last year (and alot of that was pure bad luck). So, even though I dont do it often, I think I would take the chance on him this year in the late parts of the first round (12 team or more).