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Is J Santana worth a first round pick?

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Postby lesgrant » Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:33 pm

Lofunzo wrote:
lesgrant wrote:Your IP, ERA and BAA numbers are, in part, from the bullpen. You cannot say he has a 3 year track record as a starter. He doesn’t. He’s only been in the rotation for a year and a half.

Santana was special last year. We, unfortunately, are in an era of hype where one year = a player’s entire career – for better or worse. He had a blistering second half which, chances are (factoring in every performance by every pitcher in the history of MLB) he won’t repeat. There is a high probability that his numbers will dip considerably.

Conversely with RJ, you can go back year after year after year after year as see, pretty much, the same dominant performance. When Santana spends a couple of years as a SP and duplicates last years numbers, then we can say that’s the type of player he is.

I could have made your same argument for Roy Halliday last winter. Many made the same argument for Prior. Look how both of those guys turned out. If you used your imagination/listened to the hype on either of them, you would have been sorry.


1 thing to consider though is that it's just 1 pick. I'm not saying that it's not important because it obviously is but I guarantee you that I can compete for a title this season if I take Kaz Sasaki in the 1st round. If you look at most of the 1st rounders from last year, you will find some unhappy campers. I am comfident enough in my abilities that I can overcome a player or 2 going down. Look at last year. Everyone saying to wait on pitching last year had Mulder (or similar) anchoring their staff. If he goes down, you're cooked. It's all relative. That's all.


I totally agree that you can overcome a first or second round bomb.

But as Yoda said, the top two picks should be picks with the highest probability of dominance, not rolls of the dice.

The difference makers, I’ve found, always come in the middle rounds. It’s a given that the elite performers will go in the first. It’s much easier to overcome a middle round doh! than a top rounder simply because your competition will also be making similar sleeper gambles and stand a greater chance of blowing those picks than their earlier round picks.

It’s almost like making a pit-stop under the caution flag. You would lose much less time relative to everyone else because everyone is going at a slower rate of speed, as well as making pit-stops of their own for the same reason. (if any of that makes sense)
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Postby TheYanks04 » Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:39 pm

If you play in competive leagues, good luck in winning if you get a 1st round loser. Anything is possible, but unless you are playing with a bunch of fools, losing $40 worth of value is going to cost you a title the overwhelming majority of the time. How many league champions in top leagues had Prior on their roster as a 1st rounder? Play with good players and that sort of pick is the kiss of death and you probably will be looking to place in the money at that point, not win a title.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:42 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:If you play in competive leagues, good luck in winning if you get a 1st round loser. Anything is possible, but unless you are playing with a bunch of fools, losing $40 worth of value is going to cost you a title the overwhelming majority of the time. How many league champions in top leagues had Prior on their roster as a 1st rounder? Play with good players and that sort of pick is the kiss of death and you probably will be looking to place in the money at that point, not win a title.


Well, I drafted Prior in the first round in a 15 team league and won. I traded him before the season began.

In another league, I had Arod, Soriano, Huff, Mussina, Prior and Wood as keepers to start the season. I got killed in the beginning and had to make a lot of adjustments to make up for the lack of production these guys put up.

But in general, your life is much easier if you get exactly what you want out of players in the earlier rounds.
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Postby bleach168 » Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:01 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:If you play in competive leagues, good luck in winning if you get a 1st round loser. Anything is possible, but unless you are playing with a bunch of fools, losing $40 worth of value is going to cost you a title the overwhelming majority of the time. How many league champions in top leagues had Prior on their roster as a 1st rounder? Play with good players and that sort of pick is the kiss of death and you probably will be looking to place in the money at that point, not win a title.


Remember Cornbread's numbers. Those elite pitchers can possibly produce $80-$100 worth of value. Even if these pitchers only pay off 1/3 of the time, I would be content with winning a competitive league 1/3 of the time.
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Postby red_sox_fan2004 » Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:13 pm

Fantasy MLB is perhaps the only fantasy sport where a great draft is not a key to winning a league. Unlike the NFL where there are only 16 games the long season of the MLB is sure to present injuries to star players as well as young players or sleepers to pick up midway through the season. Now completly bombing in a draft will set you off on the wrong foot but won't insure a last place finish either. Fantasy MLB is all about being alert and picking up key free agents before others do over the course of a season.

On a side nothe Johan Santana is by no means a waste of a first rounder. He was by far the best pitcher in the Al last year and figures to cotinue that sucess come 2005!
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Postby Lofunzo » Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:40 pm

red_sox_fan2004 wrote:Fantasy MLB is perhaps the only fantasy sport where a great draft is not a key to winning a league. Unlike the NFL where there are only 16 games the long season of the MLB is sure to present injuries to star players as well as young players or sleepers to pick up midway through the season. Now completly bombing in a draft will set you off on the wrong foot but won't insure a last place finish either. Fantasy MLB is all about being alert and picking up key free agents before others do over the course of a season.

On a side nothe Johan Santana is by no means a waste of a first rounder. He was by far the best pitcher in the Al last year and figures to cotinue that sucess come 2005!


I understand the concept but respectfully disagree. Making shrewd trades and key WW pickups can salvage a bad draft. I took over a team last year that drafted Faulk, Warner, and Bledsoe in the 1st 3 rounds and still traded and WW'd my way to the finals. Of course, a good draft would have helped. :-°
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Wed Feb 09, 2005 6:55 pm

In redrafts, I would think about RJ and Santana after the 6th pick. But, pitchers are finnicky. They are also the deepest position in the league. How many people got burned by Prior last year? RJ's knee is a lubricated timebomb, and Santana is probably overhyped (won't repeat last years numbers). I think there is a lot of risk taking pitchers early, and I would rather have the safer choice in hitters.
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Postby Lofunzo » Wed Feb 09, 2005 6:59 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:In redrafts, I would think about RJ and Santana after the 6th pick. But, pitchers are finnicky. They are also the deepest position in the league. How many people got burned by Prior last year? RJ's knee is a lubricated timebomb, and Santana is probably overhyped (won't repeat last years numbers). I think there is a lot of risk taking pitchers early, and I would rather have the safer choice in hitters.


That deepest position thing is misleading. I will agree that SP is extremely deep and so is OF. That said, you need multiple players at those positions. OF is deep but so is 1B. I would say that 1B is even deeper when you consider this. In a 12 team league, you need 36 starting OF. That doesn't even take the UTIL position into account. You could be looking at 48 OF on rosters. I'll take 12 1B. The same goes for SP. Assuming a minimum 4 SP on each team, you are getting into the 50's in the end. How deep is it there??
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Wed Feb 09, 2005 7:10 pm

Lofunzo wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote:In redrafts, I would think about RJ and Santana after the 6th pick. But, pitchers are finnicky. They are also the deepest position in the league. How many people got burned by Prior last year? RJ's knee is a lubricated timebomb, and Santana is probably overhyped (won't repeat last years numbers). I think there is a lot of risk taking pitchers early, and I would rather have the safer choice in hitters.


That deepest position thing is misleading. I will agree that SP is extremely deep and so is OF. That said, you need multiple players at those positions. OF is deep but so is 1B. I would say that 1B is even deeper when you consider this. In a 12 team league, you need 36 starting OF. That doesn't even take the UTIL position into account. You could be looking at 48 OF on rosters. I'll take 12 1B. The same goes for SP. Assuming a minimum 4 SP on each team, you are getting into the 50's in the end. How deep is it there??
I would say most teams have somewhere between 5 and 6 SP, meaning we are seeing somewhere between the 60-72 SP. That is a lot. I think pitching is deep enough where you can get a guy like Schmidt or Prior in the 2nd or 3rd to go along with whatever hitter you got in the first round. Remember, we are only a year removed from when Prior and Schmidt were in the same position as these guys, the two best SP.
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I DONT THINK SO

Postby mwv1 » Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

NO. His stats will drop big time
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