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Is J Santana worth a first round pick?

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Postby wrveres » Tue Feb 08, 2005 3:20 pm

Is J Santana worth a first round pick?

NO!!!
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Postby lesgrant » Tue Feb 08, 2005 4:57 pm

wrveres wrote:Is J Santana worth a first round pick?

NO!!!


Because

Amazinz wrote:When you look at the season in retrospect there are always several pitchers who produced 1st round value. The problem is that from year to year those pitchers are rarely the same ones. That's the reason behind avoiding pitchers in the 1st round or splitting your auction money 67/33. If you could rely on pitchers as much as you can hitters than you'd split the money 50/50.

You can definitely make an argument for an elite pitcher at the end of the first round because there may not be a huge drop-off among the hitters who will be there for you at 14-16 picks. But if I was going to grab a pitcher that early it would most likely be someone like the Unit just due to the track record. Everyone thought that Prior was a sure-fire 1st rounder last year.


Santana is another example of overhype. Yes, he’s good. But until he proves some level of consistency, he’s not THAT good.

Banking a 1st round pick on a 1 year projection based a 1.5 year track record is reckless. I would draft RJ over Santana simply because there is a greater probability that RJ will repeat last year’s performance than Santana repeating last year’s performance.
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Postby ukrneal » Wed Feb 09, 2005 4:10 am

I disagree on Santana not being a first round pick (or at least worthy of one). He has shown an ERA of under 3.10 for the past three years. His BAA has not been higher than .216 over the past three years. He has started 14, 18, and 34 games over the past three years while accomplishing those feats (that's 2 years worth of strarts over 3 years). Walks allowed has been 49, 47, 54 while at the same time innings pitched has gone from 108 to 228! And for those who would argue that he threw too many innings, he was held to pitch counts last year and threw only one complete game.

Even if his numbers worsen a little, I like that he still has a weaker division (at least I think so) which will help him. I guess I just think he's a special pitcher who hasn't been rushed along like another special pitcher (Prior).

What's even scarier is his 2.61ERA and 0.92WHIP occurred with a poor 2 month start to the season!!! Imagine what could have been!
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Postby Lofunzo » Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:32 am

Irish wrote:I disagree. After last year I've realized it's much easier to find great pitchers off the waiver wire then batters. I mean:

Victor Martinez
Beltre: if you were lucky
Overbay: for a little while
Jason Bay.

I mean, there weren't many studs off the waiver is all I'm saying, but:

Oliver Perez
Ben Sheets
Santana : after frustrated owners dropped him
Burnett

etc etc.

I feel like pitching is more unpredictable then hitting and should be treated that way. I'm sure there are a lot of pitchers that go undrafted that will make as much noise as a guy like Sheets did last year.


If those guys are on the WW, can I play in your league?? ;-7

I never took pitching in the 1st round until this year. I am in a new keeper league and I made a sin, according to the Cafe. I drafted Santana at #10 and then you know what?? I took Prior on the way back. The hitters available at that time didn't justify my pick. I would have gladly taken a hitter in the 1st if there was a better value. I know that pitchers are uncertain and all that but I believe that I will have a potent duo for the next 10+ years. I also think that there is a good chance that I have both Cy Youngs on my team in the near future. Wishful thinking?? Maybe but my offense has turned out nicely as well.
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Postby lesgrant » Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:50 pm

ukrneal wrote:I disagree on Santana not being a first round pick (or at least worthy of one). He has shown an ERA of under 3.10 for the past three years. His BAA has not been higher than .216 over the past three years. He has started 14, 18, and 34 games over the past three years while accomplishing those feats (that's 2 years worth of strarts over 3 years). Walks allowed has been 49, 47, 54 while at the same time innings pitched has gone from 108 to 228! And for those who would argue that he threw too many innings, he was held to pitch counts last year and threw only one complete game.

Even if his numbers worsen a little, I like that he still has a weaker division (at least I think so) which will help him. I guess I just think he's a special pitcher who hasn't been rushed along like another special pitcher (Prior).

What's even scarier is his 2.61ERA and 0.92WHIP occurred with a poor 2 month start to the season!!! Imagine what could have been!


Your IP, ERA and BAA numbers are, in part, from the bullpen. You cannot say he has a 3 year track record as a starter. He doesn’t. He’s only been in the rotation for a year and a half.

Santana was special last year. We, unfortunately, are in an era of hype where one year = a player’s entire career – for better or worse. He had a blistering second half which, chances are (factoring in every performance by every pitcher in the history of MLB) he won’t repeat. There is a high probability that his numbers will dip considerably.

Conversely with RJ, you can go back year after year after year after year as see, pretty much, the same dominant performance. When Santana spends a couple of years as a SP and duplicates last years numbers, then we can say that’s the type of player he is.

I could have made your same argument for Roy Halliday last winter. Many made the same argument for Prior. Look how both of those guys turned out. If you used your imagination/listened to the hype on either of them, you would have been sorry.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:02 pm

lesgrant wrote:
Your IP, ERA and BAA numbers are, in part, from the bullpen. You cannot say he has a 3 year track record as a starter. He doesn’t. He’s only been in the rotation for a year and a half.

Santana was special last year. We, unfortunately, are in an era of hype where one year = a player’s entire career – for better or worse. He had a blistering second half which, chances are (factoring in every performance by every pitcher in the history of MLB) he won’t repeat. There is a high probability that his numbers will dip considerably.

Conversely with RJ, you can go back year after year after year after year as see, pretty much, the same dominant performance. When Santana spends a couple of years as a SP and duplicates last years numbers, then we can say that’s the type of player he is.

I could have made your same argument for Roy Halliday last winter. Many made the same argument for Prior. Look how both of those guys turned out. If you used your imagination/listened to the hype on either of them, you would have been sorry.


I couldn't have said it better. ;-D
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:03 pm

ukrneal wrote:What's even scarier is his 2.61ERA and 0.92WHIP occurred with a poor 2 month start to the season!!! Imagine what could have been!


What could have been was 1.50, 0.72 ... which is what he put up after June 1.
I use my first-round pick on a player I think will be a difference-maker. It's never been a pitcher before, but I'd go with Santana in the back half of the first round this year. I can find a hitter in the 13-16 picks that will match anything I can find in 8-12.
BTW, for those who lament Johan's track record or are concerned about the 'Loaiza factor': I've had Santana on my teams for the last three years. It's all been good. Very good.
• Aaron Hill: Avoids DL Jul 12 (RotoWire)
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Postby Lofunzo » Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:03 pm

lesgrant wrote:Your IP, ERA and BAA numbers are, in part, from the bullpen. You cannot say he has a 3 year track record as a starter. He doesn’t. He’s only been in the rotation for a year and a half.

Santana was special last year. We, unfortunately, are in an era of hype where one year = a player’s entire career – for better or worse. He had a blistering second half which, chances are (factoring in every performance by every pitcher in the history of MLB) he won’t repeat. There is a high probability that his numbers will dip considerably.

Conversely with RJ, you can go back year after year after year after year as see, pretty much, the same dominant performance. When Santana spends a couple of years as a SP and duplicates last years numbers, then we can say that’s the type of player he is.

I could have made your same argument for Roy Halliday last winter. Many made the same argument for Prior. Look how both of those guys turned out. If you used your imagination/listened to the hype on either of them, you would have been sorry.


1 thing to consider though is that it's just 1 pick. I'm not saying that it's not important because it obviously is but I guarantee you that I can compete for a title this season if I take Kaz Sasaki in the 1st round. If you look at most of the 1st rounders from last year, you will find some unhappy campers. I am comfident enough in my abilities that I can overcome a player or 2 going down. Look at last year. Everyone saying to wait on pitching last year had Mulder (or similar) anchoring their staff. If he goes down, you're cooked. It's all relative. That's all.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:05 pm

AKhomebrewer wrote:
ukrneal wrote:What's even scarier is his 2.61ERA and 0.92WHIP occurred with a poor 2 month start to the season!!! Imagine what could have been!


What could have been was 1.50, 0.72 ... which is what he put up after June 1.
I use my first-round pick on a player I think will be a difference-maker. It's never been a pitcher before, but I'd go with Santana in the back half of the first round this year. I can find a hitter in the 13-16 picks that will match anything I can find in 8-12.
BTW, for those who lament Johan's track record or are concerned about the 'Loaiza factor': I've had Santana on my teams for the last three years. It's all been good. Very good.


First round pick is NOT supposed to be the difference maker. You are supposed to get guys that you KNOW will put up the numbers you are expecting. You have 20+ rounds to gamble. Why take a chance in the first round on someone like Santana? Second round, maybe. I would still take RJ over him without even thinking about it.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:29 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:From another standpoint - in ESPN's value calculator, both RJ and Santana were much more valuable than any other player last yr. Rototimes have them both in the top 5-6 based on their dollar value calculator - this was based on last yrs stats.

I know Im in the minority, but Ill draft Randy Johnson 4th overall after Beltran, Vlad, and Pooholes with Santana right behind him. If RJ comes close to the %s and Ks he had last yr he will be the fantasy MVP by a good margin - add 5-6 more wins from his '04 totals.

When people say they wont draft a SP in the first rd - there are one of two things happenning - either they are drafting for safety because field players tend to be more consistant, or they dont understand value because elite SPs help as much if not more than the elite hitters.



Saftey? There is a fine line between being aggressive and being stupid. High first round SPs...no thanks. I might consider Santana if I was picking number 9-12 in a league as at that point the waters sort of merge. Either way, a Santana at #10 or so forces top bats rounds 2-4.

There is no way you pick a SP top 6, IMO. Risk vs reward is too high and all you need for evidence is Prior last year and RJ himself 2 years ago. Pass on a Vlad or Arod or Helton for a SP makes no sense to me as it is asking to get hurt for what amounts to a marginal gain if all goes well. And the probability of SP's blowing up is far, far greater than that of the top 4-6 sticks in the league. You play with fire, eventually you get burned and I fail to see why anyone wants to tempt fate to get RJ over Helton or Arod. 1st round is not the time to be taking chances...it is the time to be locking down the heart of your team.
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