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Is J Santana worth a first round pick?

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Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 08, 2005 10:40 am

I am not high on Santana as most people are. I think he is worth a top 15 pick but not top 10. He has shown he can be a dominant pitcher for sure. But I need to see him do it again for me to be convinced that what he did in the second half is real.
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Postby Amazinz » Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:26 am

When you look at the season in retrospect there are always several pitchers who produced 1st round value. The problem is that from year to year those pitchers are rarely the same ones. That's the reason behind avoiding pitchers in the 1st round or splitting your auction money 67/33. If you could rely on pitchers as much as you can hitters than you'd split the money 50/50.

You can definitely make an argument for an elite pitcher at the end of the first round because there may not be a huge drop-off among the hitters who will be there for you at 14-16 picks. But if I was going to grab a pitcher that early it would most likely be someone like the Unit just due to the track record. Everyone thought that Prior was a sure-fire 1st rounder last year.
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Postby Irish » Tue Feb 08, 2005 12:04 pm

I disagree. After last year I've realized it's much easier to find great pitchers off the waiver wire then batters. I mean:

Victor Martinez
Beltre: if you were lucky
Overbay: for a little while
Jason Bay.

I mean, there weren't many studs off the waiver is all I'm saying, but:

Oliver Perez
Ben Sheets
Santana : after frustrated owners dropped him
Burnett

etc etc.

I feel like pitching is more unpredictable then hitting and should be treated that way. I'm sure there are a lot of pitchers that go undrafted that will make as much noise as a guy like Sheets did last year.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 08, 2005 12:07 pm

Amazinz wrote:When you look at the season in retrospect there are always several pitchers who produced 1st round value. The problem is that from year to year those pitchers are rarely the same ones. That's the reason behind avoiding pitchers in the 1st round or splitting your auction money 67/33. If you could rely on pitchers as much as you can hitters than you'd split the money 50/50.

You can definitely make an argument for an elite pitcher at the end of the first round because there may not be a huge drop-off among the hitters who will be there for you at 14-16 picks. But if I was going to grab a pitcher that early it would most likely be someone like the Unit just due to the track record. Everyone thought that Prior was a sure-fire 1st rounder last year.


Yup... I have RJ in the first round and I don't even know if he belongs there.
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Postby Dark Knight » Tue Feb 08, 2005 1:54 pm

I problably am not qualified to reply to this thread, since I never draft pitching in the first 4 rounds of my draft. I have always had more luck finding quality waiver wire pitching than hitting. I have only been playing fantasy baseball since the 1998 season though.
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Postby 9er Fan » Tue Feb 08, 2005 2:13 pm

Very good pitchers that can help your team quite a bit in 4 categories can be found on waivers every year; Sv, W, WHIP, ERA. Strikeouts however are generally very tough to find sitting on the waiver wire. I'd probably take Santana after Pujols, Vlad, A-Rod, Beltran, Tejada, and possibly Helton/Soriano.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Feb 08, 2005 2:45 pm

Dark Knight wrote:I problably am not qualified to reply to this thread, since I never draft pitching in the first 4 rounds of my draft. I have always had more luck finding quality waiver wire pitching than hitting. I have only been playing fantasy baseball since the 1998 season though.


This post made me go back and look at historical values. I remember that RJ and Pedro were consensus 1-2s for a couple years in a row, and now I remember why:

From Rototimes value calculator (12 team, mixed league, 9/6 hitter/pitcher split, 5x5, $260cap). I have listed the top Ps and their actual value vs. the top hitters and their actual value:

'99
Pedro = $91.50
RJ = $84.45
Bagwell = $54.79
Manny & Alomar were also in the low 50s.

'00
Pedro = $101
RJ = $80
Helton = $52.82
Erstad and Bagwell followed close behind.

'01
RJ = $82.70
Bonds = $63
Sosa = $61

'02
RJ = $75
Schilling = $64
Vlad = $69
Bonds = $60

'03
Gagne = $75
Foulke = $61
Pujols = $73
Sheffield = $65

'04
Santana = $56.66
RJ = $56
Vlad = $72
Ichiro = $68
Pujols = $68

'04 was the first yr in 6 years where a hitter was the fantasy MVP - it could have been longer - I didnt go back prior to '99.

Just some food for thought. :-?
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Feb 08, 2005 2:54 pm

I don't know how you (Or RotoTimes actually) come up with those dollar values, and I don't know if they're reflective of actual value. But this year there are over a dozen top-tier SP's and I would be happy with any of them as my ace; the marginal value of Randy and Johan over the rest isn't very big so there's no way I'd draft either one of them. Give me Zam, Prior, Schmidt, or Sheets. All 4 will be as good as RJ and Santana IMO and are a lot cheaper. Even Peavy will be up there. Since I'm pretty much guaranteed one of those guys in the 2nd, 3rd, and probably even 4th round, why spend a top 5 pick, or even a first rounder on one? You can't get the same caliber of hitter as Manny, Beltran, Crawford, Vlad, or Pujols after the first round. You can get top notch SP's all the way through the 4th round. That's the difference maker for me. But of course, this is because I don't over-value RJ and Santana like a lot of people are this year.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Feb 08, 2005 3:06 pm

LBJackal wrote:I don't know how you (Or RotoTimes actually) come up with those dollar values, and I don't know if they're reflective of actual value. But this year there are over a dozen top-tier SP's and I would be happy with any of them as my ace; the marginal value of Randy and Johan over the rest isn't very big so there's no way I'd draft either one of them. Give me Zam, Prior, Schmidt, or Sheets. All 4 will be as good as RJ and Santana IMO and are a lot cheaper. Even Peavy will be up there. Since I'm pretty much guaranteed one of those guys in the 2nd, 3rd, and probably even 4th round, why spend a top 5 pick, or even a first rounder on one? You can't get the same caliber of hitter as Manny, Beltran, Crawford, Vlad, or Pujols after the first round. You can get top notch SP's all the way through the 4th round. That's the difference maker for me. But of course, this is because I don't over-value RJ and Santana like a lot of people are this year.


Great point - and I think that the values shown completely reflects that. You have to remember, during the 99-02 years It was all about RJ and Pedro - they had no competiton, and by putting up the numbers they did with the lack of competition, yes it certainly made them much more valuable than anyone else.
As for this yr - you are correct when you say that the top tier is much more top heavy than in years past, which dilutes the values of the entire group - again, since '04 was the first yr that a hitter was more valuable than a SP, I think that theory is completely reflected in those values.
As for '05 - now thats a matter of debate. I dont think there is the same sort of large top tier. I see Randy Johnson in a tier by himself, then Santana, then 4-5 others. And as you saw, this will determine how much each is worth. To me, I see video game numbers from RJ - circa '00-'02 as a one last hurrah on the final stage. Of course its a gamble, but Im fine with that - if it pays off he will more than likely be the #1 fantasy player in '05 by a large margin. Again, its a risk, but its also a very real possibility - all he really needs to do is improve slightly on his Krate from last yr and he's that elite P we saw over the last 6 years.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Feb 08, 2005 3:19 pm

I can't see RJ improving on his K rate... he's putting the ball over the plate a lot more, and while that has helped his BB/9 which is key, it hurts his K/9. Moving to the AL, I think the typical change is a drop of 0.50 in your K/9, or thereabouts. A rise in his K/9 seems unlikely, unless it's accompanied by a rise in his BB/9, which would probably hurt more than it helps in terms of ERA. His run support and bullpen will be a lot better, but he's another year older, in a division that's a lot tougher, and facing a DH. I just don't see him as being that much better than the other guys in the top tier. But that's just my opinion. And I agree, RJ does have a very high ceiling for 2005. But he's more risky, so it depends on preference.
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