Is J Santana worth a first round pick?

[roto-addicted]

I think so but the pitching position is deep but I think Santana justfies a first round pick like Pero and Johnson in their heyday. Pitching and outfield are probably the deepest but I have to say my first pick would probably either be a pitcher or an outfielder. So anyway, I'd like to hear your opinion on this and also on making pitchers your first round pick. Thanks in advance and hopefully this isn't a redundant post.

[so0perspam]

I'd say Johan is definitely worth a 9th or 10th overall pick.

[Hbj79]

Welcome to the cafe

Santana is worth a first round but probably not before 8th overall and some would argue later. It can be risky to take a pitcher in the first round as hitters tend to be more consistent. The best plan in the first round is usually to take the best player and not worry too much about position. What size league are you talking about?

[roto-addicted]

Thanks for the replies. And Thanks for the welcome.

Yeah. I'd tend to agree with both of you. I'm talking about a 12 team league. And I'd have to say I'd pick Santana in the first round if I were drafting at the bottom and probably go for a Guerrero or Beltran if I were higher but I don't know, Santana is awfully tempting and although I understand not drafting by position and just picking the best player, I believe in a strong pitching staff. Surprise position players that can be picked up on waivers (like V. Martinez last year) are probably easier to come by than pitchers in my opinion. But of course there are exceptions.

[so0perspam]

Thanks for the replies. And Thanks for the welcome.

Yeah. I'd tend to agree with both of you. I'm talking about a 12 team league. And I'd have to say I'd pick Santana in the first round if I were drafting at the bottom and probably go for a Guerrero or Beltran if I were higher but I don't know, Santana is awfully tempting and although I understand not drafting by position and just picking the best player, I believe in a strong pitching staff. Surprise position players that can be picked up on waivers (like V. Martinez last year) are probably easier to come by than pitchers in my opinion. But of course there are exceptions.

Exactly.

[swingaway]

i wouldnt take him in the first round yet. If i can rememeber didnt Santana post like of the best 2nd half numbers in the history of the mlb. What are the odds he repeats those numbers . Peopel will pick him in the first round but he more than likely will put up 3 or 4th round numbers. I would rather pick an oswalt type at an later round because they will more than likely produce roughly around the same this year.

[trevisc]

i'd take him 6th overall right after Helton

[ukrneal]

Santana is definitely worth a first round pick. He's got all the tools.

I totally disagree on the waiver situation. It is MUCH easier to find surprise pitchers than surprise hitters over the season. I think its because pitchers are more likely to have greater variation over their careers. On the other hand, maybe you and I are just better at those positions.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

From another standpoint - in ESPN's value calculator, both RJ and Santana were much more valuable than any other player last yr. Rototimes have them both in the top 5-6 based on their dollar value calculator - this was based on last yrs stats.

I know Im in the minority, but Ill draft Randy Johnson 4th overall after Beltran, Vlad, and Pooholes with Santana right behind him. If RJ comes close to the %s and Ks he had last yr he will be the fantasy MVP by a good margin - add 5-6 more wins from his '04 totals.

When people say they wont draft a SP in the first rd - there are one of two things happenning - either they are drafting for safety because field players tend to be more consistant, or they dont understand value because elite SPs help as much if not more than the elite hitters.

[ScurvyDog]

I agree with Cornbread and Trev - I have him and RJ 5th and 6th.