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Jeff Kent = buyer beware !!

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Postby Pirate of the Carib » Sat Feb 05, 2005 7:34 pm

What do you expect Utley to get and Why?
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Sat Feb 05, 2005 7:42 pm

While I think you're dead on re: Kent, I think you're overrating Utley. My expectations of the two of them are almost identical:

.260, 20 homers, 60 runs. I'd expect Kent to get maybe 10-15 more rbis because of where he'll hit in the lineup.

I don't think he'll play everyday and I don't think his k/bb ratio promises anything spectacular - I'd rather have D'Angelo Jimenez over both of them. Or, better yet, I'd rather have one of the Mets second basemen.

All should go late.
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Postby RAmst23 » Sat Feb 05, 2005 8:02 pm

I think .260 is kinda low for Kent's AVG. He's career is .289, and my guess is he'll post pretty close to his career totals for 2005. Yea he's in decline (Most likely), but will still hit for a decent avg.

Also something I didn't paticularly realize when I posted earlier, drafting Kent is drafting with consistency in mind. Soriano's totals, while having the ability to be better (and I think they will), you know what you are getting from Kent. About .290/close to 100 RBIs (7 of last 8 season 100+, and 93 in 2003), 80+ R and mid-20's HR roughly.

Kinda sad that these numbers are the top-tier for 2B, but I guess that's fairly normal in MLB.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sat Feb 05, 2005 8:52 pm

Man the Jeff Kent hatred around this board is just amazing. One would think Bonds is impersonatng users around here and spreading ill-will. Just what is it with this guy that he gets so much venom from so many around here?

Sure his numbers may decline a bit, but hr has always hit, hit everywhere and never disappointed his fantasy owners. The same can not bes aid for the fantasy god Sorinao who some of tthe same people seem to think is still great despite declining OPS's over the past 3 years.
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Postby Absolutely Adequate » Sat Feb 05, 2005 9:00 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:Man the Jeff Kent hatred around this board is just amazing. One would think Bonds is impersonatng users around here and spreading ill-will. Just what is it with this guy that he gets so much venom from so many around here?

Sure his numbers may decline a bit, but hr has always hit, hit everywhere and never disappointed his fantasy owners. The same can not bes aid for the fantasy god Sorinao who some of tthe same people seem to think is still great despite declining OPS's over the past 3 years.


I think you've got a bit of an obsession with Soriano, champ.

But the truth is that Kent hasn't hit everywhere recently. Last year he hit 30 points lower on the road, away from a great hitteres park. It won't be a Coors level drop-off, but he's aging and doesn't swing the same stick any more.

He'll go around the same time as Marcus Giles or Mark Loretta, but he'll produce like Chase Utley.
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Postby Garry26 » Sat Feb 05, 2005 10:00 pm

Most positions are deep this year so you dont have to worry about position scarcity.
I love mock drafts.
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Postby NZF » Sat Feb 05, 2005 10:24 pm

Absolutely Adequate wrote:While I think you're dead on re: Kent, I think you're overrating Utley. My expectations of the two of them are almost identical:



I said I'm expecting them to put up similar numbers. Appears to me as if you're saying the same thing :-?

The risk with Utley is the assumption that he plays everyday but that looks as if it will happen.

Anyway I can see Utley hitting 25 HR's with 100 Runs (if he bats 2) or 100 RBI's (if he's down at 6 or 7). I'm hoping he gets around a .285 avg but that may be wishful thinking. More likely between .275 -.280.

The main reason I'm so high on Utley relative to where he'll be drafted is his expected power numbers and the fact I believe Citizens Bank Park will soon be regarded as the second best hitters park behind Coors in the majors.

And for the record, I've never been a big fan of D'Angelo Jimenez. I think the fact that he had been shipped off by 4 different teams in 4 straight years says it all really. The park he plays in now helps but assuming he and Utley both play everyday, I would expect Utley to beat him in 3 out of 5 categories at least.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sat Feb 05, 2005 11:05 pm

Absolutely Adequate wrote: But the truth is that Kent hasn't hit everywhere recently. Last year he hit 30 points lower on the road, away from a great hitteres park. It won't be a Coors level drop-off, but he's aging and doesn't swing the same stick any more.

He'll go around the same time as Marcus Giles or Mark Loretta, but he'll produce like Chase Utley.


I think this demise is a bit extreme. Yea he's not the same Kent of a few years ago. Hitting lower on the road is expected when you play at Minute Maid. Forecasting only 20 hrs and 60 runs? Kent can still hit. Here are a few signs there's still life left.

His 04 was better then his 03.
His 2 years in Houston he had more road hrs (26), then home (23).
Had big 2nd half last year (17 hrs and 57 rbis).

I don't see any reason he can't hit 25 hrs and get 80 runs/rbis.
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Postby free » Sat Feb 05, 2005 11:11 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
Absolutely Adequate wrote: But the truth is that Kent hasn't hit everywhere recently. Last year he hit 30 points lower on the road, away from a great hitteres park. It won't be a Coors level drop-off, but he's aging and doesn't swing the same stick any more.

He'll go around the same time as Marcus Giles or Mark Loretta, but he'll produce like Chase Utley.


I think this demise is a bit extreme. Yea he's not the same Kent of a few years ago. Hitting lower on the road is expected when you play at Minute Maid. Forecasting only 20 hrs and 60 runs? Kent can still hit. Here are a few signs there's still life left.

His 04 was better then his 03.
His 2 years in Houston he had more road hrs (26), then home (23).
Had big 2nd half last year (17 hrs and 57 rbis).

I don't see any reason he can't hit 25 hrs and get 80 runs/rbis.



even with those numbers, what round would you expect him to go in? imo, he'll go way to high in most drafts. :-t
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Sat Feb 05, 2005 11:11 pm

I actually like Kent this year. I took him with the first pick in the 8th round of a 14 team league, and I am extremely happy with that pick. I think that he can do decently well in LA. Minute Maid is, contrary to popular belief, closer to neutral in terms of park factor than hitter-friendly. Also, the addition of new seats replacing lots of foul territory in LA should make it a much more neutral stadium, and maybe even slightly hitter-friendly. For this year, I think Kent can reach .288, 23, 87, 94, with a couple SBs thrown in. He is tied with Lorretta for the 3rd best 2nd baseman, IMO.
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