If its between the two, Matsui for sure. In a draft, I wouldn't even think about it. Risks dont win you championships, smart risk-rewards ratios do. Injuries kill.
If the situation is that Ordonez goes for little less than I think he should, I would take the risk.
Most of you got it right. Does anyone know what is wrong with Maggs yet? Why isn't he signed? I know Boras is a tough salesman but if he is really healthy, why isn't he being pursued by anyone else but the Tigers? He is the last remaining big time free agent. And no one but the Tigers want him. My guess is that he is not completely healthy. If he is, Boras is not doing a very good job of convincing his suitors that he is fine.
It is clear that Matsui needed time to adjust. He dramatically improved virtually all offensive statistical categories in 1 season. If you look at his career progression in Japan, it is not tough to see that he will only get better.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
The Jury wrote:Maggs is one of the sickest fantasy sluggers when healthy.
He put up high 30s HR, 120 RBI, 100 runs, killer BA, and can swipe some bases.
I like the big potential guys because they win championships. I haven't seen people have much success just by playing it safe and taking all the above-average-not-spectacular players...
Yeah, they also lose you championships in spectacular fashion . I think the risk outweighs the reward with Maggs, the whole knee thing just scares me. Go with Matsui, who should be on par with next year, and is far safer.
Well you can either shoot for the top and finish anywhere, or you can take all the safe picks and finish in the middle of the pack. Either situation is not considering trading/negotiating abilities
[quote:4fef447375="Geek"]The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.[/quote]
Actually, Im a big believer in that taking all the smart/safe picks usually puts you near the top, and sometimes #1. (there is nothing that gives you first consistently)
Going for first or last rarely works, usually that just puts you near the bottom.
At least by playing it smart, reducing your risks, you give your managing skills a chance to win it all for you through trades and FA's.
just my 2 cents from years of fantasy, in many diff sports
The Jury wrote:Maggs is one of the sickest fantasy sluggers when healthy.
He put up high 30s HR, 120 RBI, 100 runs, killer BA, and can swipe some bases.
I like the big potential guys because they win championships. I haven't seen people have much success just by playing it safe and taking all the above-average-not-spectacular players...
Yeah, they also lose you championships in spectacular fashion . I think the risk outweighs the reward with Maggs, the whole knee thing just scares me. Go with Matsui, who should be on par with next year, and is far safer.
Well you can either shoot for the top and finish anywhere, or you can take all the safe picks and finish in the middle of the pack. Either situation is not considering trading/negotiating abilities
The point isn't that you never take risks. I believe that to win a championship in a league with competitive owners, you must take some risks. As someone above wrote, you must take smart risks. Taking Maggs over Matsui is not smart. If healthy, he won't produce much more than Matsui, if more at all. So why even take that risk?
As far as Magglio at $22 goes, I'm very happy with him at $22. In fact, I would have paid more than $22 for him. Yeah, maybe I would have liked Matsui at $17 (or $18), but comparing the prices isn't looking at how the market in this auction changed between Magglio and Matsui. Magglio was the fifth outfielder sold and immediately preceded a $44 Guerrero. Matsui was the eleventh outfielder sold (at a time when only one outfielder could be nominated per day) and immediately preceded a $25 Bonds. If Magglio were being auctioned now, he'd easily sell for under $15, however, Magglio was nominated early, and I wanted Magglio. I think J.D. Drew at $16 makes up for (possibly) overspending on Maggs. Let's not forget you paid $24 for Oliver Perez before Peavy went for $19, Prior went for $23, and Sheets went for $22.
Maggs is nothing but ?? this year. If he signs with the Tigers, you not only have to worry about his very questionable knee (IMO), but also you have to weigh the fact that he leaves the Cellular Field launching pad to play 81 games in Comerica. That by itself, should have an effect on his numbers.
The Jury wrote:Maggs is one of the sickest fantasy sluggers when healthy.
He put up high 30s HR, 120 RBI, 100 runs, killer BA, and can swipe some bases.
I like the big potential guys because they win championships. I haven't seen people have much success just by playing it safe and taking all the above-average-not-spectacular players...
Yeah, they also lose you championships in spectacular fashion . I think the risk outweighs the reward with Maggs, the whole knee thing just scares me. Go with Matsui, who should be on par with next year, and is far safer.
Well you can either shoot for the top and finish anywhere, or you can take all the safe picks and finish in the middle of the pack. Either situation is not considering trading/negotiating abilities
The point isn't that you never take risks. I believe that to win a championship in a league with competitive owners, you must take some risks. As someone above wrote, you must take smart risks. Taking Maggs over Matsui is not smart. If healthy, he won't produce much more than Matsui, if more at all. So why even take that risk?
As far as Magglio at $22 goes, I'm very happy with him at $22. In fact, I would have paid more than $22 for him. Yeah, maybe I would have liked Matsui at $17 (or $18), but comparing the prices isn't looking at how the market in this auction changed between Magglio and Matsui. Magglio was the fifth outfielder sold and immediately preceded a $44 Guerrero. Matsui was the eleventh outfielder sold (at a time when only one outfielder could be nominated per day) and immediately preceded a $25 Bonds. If Magglio were being auctioned now, he'd easily sell for under $15, however, Magglio was nominated early, and I wanted Magglio. I think J.D. Drew at $16 makes up for (possibly) overspending on Maggs. Let's not forget you paid $24 for Oliver Perez before Peavy went for $19, Prior went for $23, and Sheets went for $22.
The Jury wrote:Maybe, but I'm really fond of the stud sluggers...
A guy like Maggs really floats my boat with his .310+ BA and his MONSTER RBI numbers. And my league always uses hits, so he's a beast of an OF.
What is really interesting is that Matsui put up numbers in 04 that Ordonez put up before his injury. Yet you still prefer Maggs who has some serious question mark regarding his health as well as where he will end up playing. If he ends up some place like DET, even IF he stays healthy, he will produce like Matsui. And his health is a BIG if.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
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by Hrbek85 » Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:06 am 
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![:-]](./images/smilies/smirk.gif "Scottie")
but also you have to weigh the fact that he leaves the Cellular Field launching pad to play 81 games in Comerica. 
That by itself, should have an effect on his numbers.
