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Why I'd still take A-Rod first

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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sat Feb 05, 2005 10:49 am

Drdobs wrote:What does everybody make of this meeting that supposedly occurred between Steinbrenner and A-Rod this past week that had Steinbrenner calling him out for trying to hard to mesh in with the team rather than be a leader??

When I heard of this there was something about that conversation that really struck to the bone because I think it was actually true. Since the deal had occurred with him going to New York he kinda carried this really "humbleness" about him and was very respectfull of the situation. But you have to believe with a guy with his talents, at some point you have to throw that aside and go for broke.

The Yankee's don't need to play politics with who's going to be leader, etc. But perhaps it's time A-Rod accept the challenge of really carrying the team rather than blending in. From what I've seen in his personality over the past 10 years, this is the type of meeting that will really propell him to produce.

Now that he's used to being a Yankee, used to 3rd base and he's not going to get nearly the attention he did in the past, I like his chances to exceed his numbers last year.

I predict he'll hit .305 - 42 HR - 119 RBI - 17 SB

Those are good enough numbers for me to draft #1 as I know he's secured in the heart of an awsome lineup and doesn't have any lingering foot "issues"

Jon
People, hes never going to hit that high of an average or HR as long as hes a Yankee. The Texas ballpark greatly inflated his power and average, as it does for everyone. CBM showed this. Awesome lineup is a invalid reason, since Pujols, Vlad, and Arod are in awesome lineups, and Pujols lingering foot issue didn't stop him last year, nor has plantars facitis stopped any fantasy player. (Randy Moss, Rashard Lewis?). Plantars is an injury everyone worries about, and then never has any real effect, so all you do is get an excellent player at a better value. So, I hope I pick 2nd or 3rd in a league where ARod goes first so I can get Pujols or Vlad.
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Postby Yoda » Sat Feb 05, 2005 11:26 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
what do you mean it doesnt explain the drop in numbers? My post just spelled it out for you. It absolutely explains the drop in production.

Let me sum it up once again:

Away splits are a better indicator for what a players true production level because it mitigates park effect. Looking at Arods home away splits suggest he played much better while in Arlington. Now that he plays in a tougher hitters park his away splits are a good indicator for what to expect. Hence, the drop in production is explained.

Also - yes statistics show that players usually peak between 27-29 so one can reasonably assume he will not get better.


You make some very valid points. However, players like Arod do not fall off the face of the planet like most players do. Looking at his career scan, which season looks like an aberration to you? He's been so awesome for so many years that just because he had one mediocre year (not that mediocre compared to 99% of the league), you can't write it off simply as he's washed up and/or ball park helped him hit 381 HRs before he even turned 30. He may not hit 50 or 60, but he is a lot better hitter than he showed last season. He pressed too hard and was not comfortable. It's more likely he has a nice bounce back season than further regressing at his age.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sat Feb 05, 2005 11:34 am

Yoda wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
what do you mean it doesnt explain the drop in numbers? My post just spelled it out for you. It absolutely explains the drop in production.

Let me sum it up once again:

Away splits are a better indicator for what a players true production level because it mitigates park effect. Looking at Arods home away splits suggest he played much better while in Arlington. Now that he plays in a tougher hitters park his away splits are a good indicator for what to expect. Hence, the drop in production is explained.

Also - yes statistics show that players usually peak between 27-29 so one can reasonably assume he will not get better.


You make some very valid points. However, players like Arod do not fall off the face of the planet like most players do. Looking at his career scan, which season looks like an aberration to you? He's been so awesome for so many years that just because he had one mediocre year (not that mediocre compared to 99% of the league), you can't write it off simply as he's washed up and/or ball park helped him hit 381 HRs before he even turned 30. He may not hit 50 or 60, but he is a lot better hitter than he showed last season. He pressed too hard and was not comfortable. It's more likely he has a nice bounce back season than further regressing at his age.
So, its far more likely that he breaks the trend of his away park splits, which is the better indicator? I don't think so...
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Postby Yoda » Sat Feb 05, 2005 11:54 am

CubsFan7724 wrote:So, its far more likely that he breaks the trend of his away park splits, which is the better indicator? I don't think so...


Looking at his away splits and concluding that as the main reason why Alex Rodriguez will only hit .280 and 30 HRs is taking the easy way out. Look at his career numbers. In the last 8(!) years, there is only one season where he hit less than 40 HRs.

For argument sake, let's pretend that his new home is really the reason why he only hit 36 HRs. Still doesn't explain why he hit 24, 22, 28, 26, 23, 21 on the road then 19 in 04. Also, explain to me how if ball park was such a factor, he had a monster year at Safeco, an even more extreme pitcher's park. 04 was a down year for sure. But when you look at the whole picture, the guy is only 29, and one of the best players on the planet. Players like him rarely decline this quickly. He is a rare breed and unless he shows that he is regressing, I can't assume the trend will continue without some peaks and valleys. He SHOULD hit 40 HRs with a good average and plenty of R and RBI with some steals to boot. He is no longer a #1 pick but certainly worthy top 10.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sat Feb 05, 2005 12:15 pm

Yoda wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
The argument against Arod is that his stats from Texas were highly inflated because of the ballpark affect.

Prior to 2001 he played in SEA, but he only played one full yr in Safeco - his contact yr, so to say he hit the same in SEA is very misleading - he did it once, and he had extra incentive.



Er... aren't those two contradicting arguments? If you are arguing ball park effects, then how can you completely throw out a season he put up monster numbers from a tougher ball park? You just weakened your argument.


Arod played one full year in Safeco, and it wasn't monster numbers there. He hit 41 hrs in 00, with a home/road split of 13/28. Only 13 of his 41 hrs came at Safeco. His 28 hrs lead the AL in road hrs. He hated Safeco, and would have left no matter what Seattle would have offered. Let's look at Arods ops and RC/27 the last 4 years, all dropping.

OPS

TBIA 01 1.012
TBIA 02 1.009
TBIA 03 .986
NY 04 .883

RC/27

TBIA 01 7.95
TBIA 02 7.91
TBIA 03 7.77
NY 04 6.48

Here's Arods home/road ops splits (01-03) versus 04

01-03
home ops (Texas) .997
road ops .937

04
home ops (NY) .857
road ops .920

Now as you can see, his road ops was virtually the same (937 to 920). But his home ops was way down (997 to 857).

Sure, Arod probably pressed a bit, but the park effects he now faces, i doubt he ever gets a 1.000 ops again. Even with the 28 sb last year, he's dropped 3 straight years in roto dollars earned. Arod isn't a #1 no matter how many times ESPN says he is. If Arod was a ss and in Texas, then he is.


CORNBREAD, nice job.
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Postby Drdobs » Sat Feb 05, 2005 12:39 pm

These are all really good points actually.......

I just don't see the miniscule drop in his OPS over the past 3-4 years as being all that telling. If you look at baseball production as a whole over the past 3-4 years you can see that offensive production has dipped easily as much.

A-Rod is STILL missing that elusive World Championship and I have to believe at 29/30 he's at the right point of being hungry for it and still with the physical talen to do it, not to mention all the experience. Provided he is healthy, I'd take the lineup he plays in over that of Beltran & Pujols too. Yes, his ballpark isn't Texas, but it's not exactly Petco park either.

The thing with A-Rod is that you don't necessarily have to cash in on the 45 homers for him to be worth that #1 pick. He's a 5 category player in that lineup and even if he only hits 35 homers, the likelyhood of him hitting .320 with 110 runs, 120 RBI's and 20 SB's is really good.

Can you REALLY be assured that Vlad and Pujols are going to outproduce that as a whole? Maybe they will, but I still see A-Rod as the most reliable player amongst the bunch.

I'm not saying A-Rod is the drop dead #1 obvious pick. Truth be told, if I'm faced with the #1 pick in any of my drafts this year, it'll still be a tough choice between Albert and A-Rod. I'm just thinking where I see these drafts where A-Rod is dropping to 4th and 5th is somewhat absurd... He's a definite Top 2 pick for me.

Jon
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Postby Yoda » Sat Feb 05, 2005 12:39 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
The argument against Arod is that his stats from Texas were highly inflated because of the ballpark affect.

Prior to 2001 he played in SEA, but he only played one full yr in Safeco - his contact yr, so to say he hit the same in SEA is very misleading - he did it once, and he had extra incentive.



Er... aren't those two contradicting arguments? If you are arguing ball park effects, then how can you completely throw out a season he put up monster numbers from a tougher ball park? You just weakened your argument.


Arod played one full year in Safeco, and it wasn't monster numbers there. He hit 41 hrs in 00, with a home/road split of 13/28. Only 13 of his 41 hrs came at Safeco. His 28 hrs lead the AL in road hrs. He hated Safeco, and would have left no matter what Seattle would have offered. Let's look at Arods ops and RC/27 the last 4 years, all dropping.

OPS

TBIA 01 1.012
TBIA 02 1.009
TBIA 03 .986
NY 04 .883

RC/27

TBIA 01 7.95
TBIA 02 7.91
TBIA 03 7.77
NY 04 6.48

Here's Arods home/road ops splits (01-03) versus 04

01-03
home ops (Texas) .997
road ops .937

04
home ops (NY) .857
road ops .920

Now as you can see, his road ops was virtually the same (937 to 920). But his home ops was way down (997 to 857).

Sure, Arod probably pressed a bit, but the park effects he now faces, i doubt he ever gets a 1.000 ops again. Even with the 28 sb last year, he's dropped 3 straight years in roto dollars earned. Arod isn't a #1 no matter how many times ESPN says he is. If Arod was a ss and in Texas, then he is.


CORNBREAD, nice job.


Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see. You may totally be right. I doubt Arod will hit like he used to and that was never my argument. My point is that he is still 29 and 04 is likely a down year more than anything else. He can maintain.290, 40 HR, 100 RBI for years to come.
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Postby The Jury » Sat Feb 05, 2005 12:42 pm

I'm part of the "A-ROD #1" fan club. He, Vlad, and Beltran are, IMO, the most complete fantasy players due to their speed element over Pujols. Pujols is a crazy slugger, but I'm in favour of the 25-40 SB to make up for the edge that Pujols has over the other 3. By grabbing the total package in your first pick, don't have to waste a starting slot on a speed demon who could hurt you in the power categories.
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Postby biju » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:33 pm

Disclaimer: I would not take A-Rod first, I would clearly take Pujols. I'm also a Mariner fan, so I kind of dislike A-Rod.

Having said that, let's look at his month-by-month splits:

Month, AB, Avg, HR, R, RBI, SB, [Games]
Mar/April, 91, .253, 4, 13, 7, 2, [Home: 12 , Away: 11]
May, 102, .333, 8, 22, 22, 7, [8, 18]
June, 99, .263, 7, 21, 19, 8, [17, 9]
July, 104, .288, 8, 18, 19, 3, [13, 15]
Aug, 96, .302, 5, 17, 11, 3, [12, 11]
Sept/Oct, 109, .275, 4, 21, 28, 5, [19, 10]

The first thing you should note here is his monthly numbers are better when he has more games away than at home. The next thing you should note (and has not yet been brought up in this thread) is that his first month was terrible.

I'm guessing you can blame it on the transition of being in the spotlight. Even so, June was a much better month for him even though he played way more games in NY, and yet better in the Sept/Oct stretch with even more games in NY.

What does this mean? Maybe it's a fluke, but my guess is he's getting more comfortable playing in front of his home crowd.

This doesn't mean his Home stats are going to be better than his away stats, but if he gets comfortable playing at home you can expect his numbers to increase within that split bringing his totals up slightly from last year.

Sorry, I wish I had a better point to make. When I started I was expecting the first month to be bad and to have dragged down his numbers. I was expecting to extrapolate, but now looking at these I'm a bigger believer in the home/away splits with the expectation that he'll produce better numbers the more he plays in that stadium.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sat Feb 05, 2005 4:01 pm

The Jury wrote:I'm part of the "A-ROD #1" fan club. He, Vlad, and Beltran are, IMO, the most complete fantasy players due to their speed element over Pujols. Pujols is a crazy slugger, but I'm in favour of the 25-40 SB to make up for the edge that Pujols has over the other 3. By grabbing the total package in your first pick, don't have to waste a starting slot on a speed demon who could hurt you in the power categories.
If Vlad returns to 25 SB hes handdowns #1. I'll say Vlad and Pujols beat ARod enough in BA and Vlad gets somewhere around 20 steals to top ARod. ARod cannot match the numbers that made him a #1 in Texas. It just isn't going to happen.
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