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Why I'd still take A-Rod first

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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sat Feb 05, 2005 1:22 am

Zito is God wrote:Cards lost an all star in Renteria and replaced him with a mediocre Eckstein. They also lost their backstop. Yanks have Giambi coming back on top of them already being favored last year.
Eckstein had a better OBP than Renteria last year... which means he gets on base more, therefore Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds drive in more runs.
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Postby Zito is God » Sat Feb 05, 2005 1:38 am

CubsFan7724 wrote:
Zito is God wrote:Cards lost an all star in Renteria and replaced him with a mediocre Eckstein. They also lost their backstop. Yanks have Giambi coming back on top of them already being favored last year.
Eckstein had a better OBP than Renteria last year... which means he gets on base more, therefore Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds drive in more runs.


Eckstein hit first, Renteria fumbled between 5th and 7th. Renteria had a diffrent role, Ecktein focused on getting on first any way possible as his main concern.
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Postby Yoda » Sat Feb 05, 2005 1:43 am

RyanK wrote:i wont take arod because hes a yankee and i hate having to cheer for any yankee when they play the red soxs, it just tears at me...

if i would take him id have to sit him vs the red soxs, sorry, thats just me.. though im sure there are other of you like this


Wow... let me guess, you've never won a league? :-D
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sat Feb 05, 2005 2:39 am

OK, lets take this from a statistical standpoint, since fantasy is about stats still, right?

The argument against Arod is that his stats from Texas were highly inflated because of the ballpark affect.

To illustrate this, lets look at his home and away splits since joinging the Rangers in 2001:

2001:
H - 71/26/65/13/.361 - 319AB
A - 62/26/70/5/.276 - 313 AB

2002:
H - 74/34/82/5/.323 - 313 AB
A - 51/23/60/4/.277 - 311 AB

2003:
H - 67/26/71/8/.314 - 309 AB
A - 57/21/47/9/.282 - 298 AB

Regardless of how much you love ARod, you have to realize that he played better at home - specifically his BA. This is the result of park effect. Now, to truly guage how well a player will do outside of the setting he is in, away splits are often used as the best indicator since the homefield park effect is mitigated. Clearly, it shows Arod will struggle to hit for as high an average as we had come to expect.

Now, how does the new park effect in Yankee stadium relate to Arod? Take a look:
2004:
H - 53/17/55/15/.280 - 311 AB
A - 59/19/51/13//293 - 290 AB

This was the first time since he moved to Texas that his away numbers were better than his home numbers. Now, as you can see above, the ABs were very similar in TEX, but in 2004 there was the biggest discrepancy between H and A ABs: he had 21 fewer away ABs yet still put up better numbers on the road. His power away from home reflected the slight decline we have seen, but its the home HRs and inflated BA that he and fantasy players truly missed.

Prior to 2001 he played in SEA, but he only played one full yr in Safeco - his contact yr, so to say he hit the same in SEA is very misleading - he did it once, and he had extra incentive.

Finally, its also very hard to believe that at 29 years old last yr his SB totals would have spiked by 10 from his highest SB total the previous 4 years. Granted, he did steal a lot more while he was in SEA, so much of that has to be considered managerial style, and Torre does let him run. Basically what you have to weigh is his age and historical trend for most baseball players is to run less once they hit 30ish against his 28SB spike he had last yr - can he really keep it up?

Basically he didnt finish in the top 10 for hitters last yr from the rototimes value calculator - ESPN's had him finishing 7th among hitters I think.

You can say "He's The Best!" "Greatest EVER" "He'll return to form" "best fantasy player period" or whatever emotional driven response you want, but from a statistical evidence standpoint he is very unlikely to ever come close to hitting the numbers he had prior to 2004. The fact that he is no longer SS eligible and now is in one of the deepest positions fantasy wise only drives that point home even further.

The fact that the Funstons and Karabels "experts" continue to rate ARod as the #1 overall pick is disturbing simply because Im sure they just dont know any better - and yet they get paid for it - amazing.
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Postby Yoda » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:09 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
The argument against Arod is that his stats from Texas were highly inflated because of the ballpark affect.

Prior to 2001 he played in SEA, but he only played one full yr in Safeco - his contact yr, so to say he hit the same in SEA is very misleading - he did it once, and he had extra incentive.



Er... aren't those two contradicting arguments? If you are arguing ball park effects, then how can you completely throw out a season he put up monster numbers from a tougher ball park? You just weakened your argument.
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Postby blankman » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:10 am

Pujols is my #1 for his average, but I would take Alex next.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:26 am

Yoda wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
The argument against Arod is that his stats from Texas were highly inflated because of the ballpark affect.

Prior to 2001 he played in SEA, but he only played one full yr in Safeco - his contact yr, so to say he hit the same in SEA is very misleading - he did it once, and he had extra incentive.



Er... aren't those two contradicting arguments? If you are arguing ball park effects, then how can you completely throw out a season he put up monster numbers from a tougher ball park? You just weakened your argument.


Not really - he hit 42 HR in safeco during his contract yr, then jumped to 52 the next yr in TEX. ;-D
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Postby Yoda » Sat Feb 05, 2005 3:45 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
The argument against Arod is that his stats from Texas were highly inflated because of the ballpark affect.

Prior to 2001 he played in SEA, but he only played one full yr in Safeco - his contact yr, so to say he hit the same in SEA is very misleading - he did it once, and he had extra incentive.



Er... aren't those two contradicting arguments? If you are arguing ball park effects, then how can you completely throw out a season he put up monster numbers from a tougher ball park? You just weakened your argument.


Not really - he hit 42 HR in safeco during his contract yr, then jumped to 52 the next yr in TEX. ;-D


I agree that ball park effects have something to do with his numbers but it doesn't explain why he went from 41,52,57,47 to 36. Is he really declining at age 29? I doubt it. He had one bad year. Worst since 1997. Last time I heard NY ain't an easy place to play in. I will gladly give him one free pass.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sat Feb 05, 2005 4:06 am

Yoda wrote:I agree that ball park effects have something to do with his numbers but it doesn't explain why he went from 41,52,57,47 to 36. Is he really declining at age 29? I doubt it. He had one bad year. Worst since 1997. Last time I heard NY ain't an easy place to play in. I will gladly give him one free pass.


what do you mean it doesnt explain the drop in numbers? My post just spelled it out for you. It absolutely explains the drop in production.

Let me sum it up once again:

Away splits are a better indicator for what a players true production level because it mitigates park effect. Looking at Arods home away splits suggest he played much better while in Arlington. Now that he plays in a tougher hitters park his away splits are a good indicator for what to expect. Hence, the drop in production is explained.

Also - yes statistics show that players usually peak between 27-29 so one can reasonably assume he will not get better.
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Postby Drdobs » Sat Feb 05, 2005 9:48 am

What does everybody make of this meeting that supposedly occurred between Steinbrenner and A-Rod this past week that had Steinbrenner calling him out for trying to hard to mesh in with the team rather than be a leader??

When I heard of this there was something about that conversation that really struck to the bone because I think it was actually true. Since the deal had occurred with him going to New York he kinda carried this really "humbleness" about him and was very respectfull of the situation. But you have to believe with a guy with his talents, at some point you have to throw that aside and go for broke.

The Yankee's don't need to play politics with who's going to be leader, etc. But perhaps it's time A-Rod accept the challenge of really carrying the team rather than blending in. From what I've seen in his personality over the past 10 years, this is the type of meeting that will really propell him to produce.

Now that he's used to being a Yankee, used to 3rd base and he's not going to get nearly the attention he did in the past, I like his chances to exceed his numbers last year.

I predict he'll hit .305 - 42 HR - 119 RBI - 17 SB

Those are good enough numbers for me to draft #1 as I know he's secured in the heart of an awsome lineup and doesn't have any lingering foot "issues"

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