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Why I'd still take A-Rod first

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Why I'd still take A-Rod first

Postby red » Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:17 pm

OK, I know, here come the anti-ARod posts, the barrage of Pujols and Beltraners, Abreuites, who see it differently.
Why this post? In an earlier post I said Beltran third behind Pujols and Arod-- Cornbread and other pointed out that Arod wasn't even a top 10 batter last season; others dogged on Beltran, others were strong supporters; still others said Abreu.
My true thought, hiding in the cafe-closet, was that I wouldn't even take Arod second, I would take him first; I would take him ahead of Pujols, and for the record, I'd take Beltran and Abreu ahead of Pujols as well (not that I'd need to take Abreu ahead of Pujols, I could just take Pujols and trade for Abreu later which would be nice); but I've run this thing up and down and sideways since yesterday and when it comes down to it, I'll take Arod first.

Note: This is for 5x5 roto or head to head; not points based leagues. In a points based league Pujols and/or Bonds are the clear number one choices; but in a 5x5 league, a category league, I'll take Arod first.

Here's my thinking. Feel free to pick it apart and destroy it, I'm sure you will...

IMO 5x5 leagues are not about the best players they've about the most valuable players in 5 categories. I thought about what players would set up up well to compete in all five categories, what players were average or above average in all five cats. This is what I was looking for (honest to God, not knowing who or how many I would find who fit the bill). Average or above average was defined, for purposes of this study, as:

.275 30+ HR, 20+ SB, 100+Runs 100+RBI;

In 2004 exactly two players made the grade: Arod (.286, 36HR, 28SB, 112R, 106RBI and Abreu (.301, 30HR, 40SB, 105RBI, 118R)

Honorable mentions: Vlad (.336 29HR, 15SB, 126 RBI, 124 R)
and Beltran (.267 38HR, 42SB, 104RBI, 106R)

I'd be tempted to take all three outfielders ahead of Arod; but not Pujols. Pujols would go fifth on my rank list.
Two things: Why Arod ahead of the OFs? Because there are enough OFs with average to above average speed or hitting ability that it seems less of a luxury to have those assets in an OF rather than an infielder (although, admittedly, it was better as SS and even better when he was eligible at both!);
Secondly, why all four guys ahead of Pujols-- and I think this is the kicker: no one player is going to win a league; but having a true five category player allows more flexibility for the subsequent rounds. For instance, I could take Pujols and then say to myself that I'll get Figgins or Podsednik later to make up for the speed; but that wastes a position as a speed only position-- maybe it takes me out of Jeff Kent as second base because I need Reyes there; maybe it takes me out of Tejada at short because I need Rollins there. If I start with a void in a category, I"m going to have to make it up somewhere, often at the expense of another one. Pods can't hit for average; Figgins can't hit for power, etc. Why start with a void- when there are true five category players, which lay the foundation from which to start.

I know this isn't rocket science, and i'm sure everyone has thought about this 1,000 times and still come up with the other options as better: and I'm honestly interested in hearing why. I understand why someone might take one of the three other OFs ahead of Arod, I don't understand why someone would take Pujols, when there are home run players and RBI players littered throughout the outfields of fantasy baseball.

OK, pick apart. I'm sure you will.
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Postby Doc19 » Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:40 pm

Whew.. 8-o

Quite a post--- I think you need a table of contents at the beginning :-D

A very interesting argument with a lot of good points... those who feel that 3rd base is the deepest position may disagree with you based on that alone, but I , for one, agree with you. I do not think I would take Pujols first... I believe that Guerrero, A-Rod, and Beltran would be my 1-2-3, but A-Rod could easily go #1, especially if you believe he will improve off last year...
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Postby domination » Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:52 pm

If you have the first pick, your more then welcome to him. its all personal preferance, i personaly would take pujols, you've thought out your options, and thats cool. most people might not agree with you though.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:53 pm

Because you were smoking peyote at the time of your draft? Seriously, you'd have to be blazed to take ARod over Pujols or Vlad, legit triple crown canidates with far better average. I'm not so sure that ARod will have as many steals, lowering his value. And, those numbers last year are what I would say he'll be around because Yankees Stadium isn't nearly as good as Arlington for hitters. Pujols is the obvious #1, he is one of the most consistent players every year and puts up MONSTER numbers.
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Postby Bobby Baseball » Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:55 pm

I'd go Pujols at 1, though you make a convincing case for A-Rod
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Postby Members Only Jackets » Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:08 pm

So nobody is worried about Pujol's foot injury?

from rotoworld:

Albert Pujols' heel has resumed bothering him over the last week.
Pujols was expected to have surgery for plantar fasciitis after last season, but a shockwave treatment worked so well that he decided against it. He could be regretting it now. "It's something I'm pretty sure I'm going to go through again this year because it's too late for surgery," he said. "I don't want to miss spring training, and I don't want to miss the first month and a half of the season." Pujols showed he could play through it just fine last season, so this isn't something that should have an impact on his price on draft day.


As a cards fan I'd take Albert first and hope to God he plays well thru it....
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Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:14 pm

I don't think it really makes a difference who you take out of Arod, Beltran and Pujols. People have different opinions on what is more valuable (some will say position, some will say power and some will say combination, etc) and more importantly, everyone builds a different team.

I have Arod in a keeper league and the only other player I would take over him is Pujols at this point. Beltran is a great talent and I think he can be the consensus #1 by season's end but I just don't like him better than Vlad, Pujols and/or Arod.
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Postby bleach168 » Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:23 pm

You make a good point, Red. However, since teams are allowed to trade, it makes it easy to correct a situation in which you fail to draft a balanced team.
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Postby xeifrank » Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:38 pm

Given the projections that I am using (3 year weighted averages), I'd still go with Vlady and Pujols before Arod. First off, you average number of stolen bases=28 is way too high, and your batting average of .275 may be a bit too low (depending on how deep your league is). AROD is great, don't get me wrong, but given his #s have declined the past two years. 3B is very deep, and AROD gets beat pretty badly in the batting average category by Vlady and Pujols, probably enough to knock him down to #3. But that's just mho.

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Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:47 pm

Members Only Jackets wrote:So nobody is worried about Pujol's foot injury?

from rotoworld:

Albert Pujols' heel has resumed bothering him over the last week.
Pujols was expected to have surgery for plantar fasciitis after last season, but a shockwave treatment worked so well that he decided against it. He could be regretting it now. "It's something I'm pretty sure I'm going to go through again this year because it's too late for surgery," he said. "I don't want to miss spring training, and I don't want to miss the first month and a half of the season." Pujols showed he could play through it just fine last season, so this isn't something that should have an impact on his price on draft day.


As a cards fan I'd take Albert first and hope to God he plays well thru it....
Pssh, everyone makes a big deal about plantars and its never ever a big deal. Randy Moss had it and was great, and the hamstring was unrelated. Rashard Lewis has it, and is one of the better fantasy bball players in the league. Facitis is the most overrated sports injury of all time. Pujols is a god again this year.
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