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Postby Absoluterain » Fri Feb 04, 2005 4:00 pm

Thanks for your imput. I needed to hear that about sosa to make a legit decision to pass on him in the draft till the later rounds. Also, I had not given much thought about roberts. So thanks.
Thanks...
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Feb 04, 2005 4:04 pm

I expect Burnitz to match Sosa's numbers. The Cubs made out on the deal because they were able to replace Sosa with someone getting paid less than 1/3rd of his salary, plus they get that true leadoff they have been needing.
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Postby Yanks Ruined It » Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:07 pm

Sosa hasnt been the same since corkgate, i dont see the trend doing a flip-flop, not in my OF maybe after 10th rd. Prior is worth it in 2nd could be #1 picher this year overall!
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Postby ironman » Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:26 pm

Yanks Ruined It wrote:Sosa hasnt been the same since corkgate, i dont see the trend doing a flip-flop, not in my OF maybe after 10th rd. Prior is worth it in 2nd could be #1 picher this year overall!


Corkgate plus taking that fastball to his melon.
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Postby Bobblehead » Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:32 pm

Yoda wrote:There will be an adjustment period for Sosa. Changing leagues is not an easy thing.


This is an interesting theory. I tried to think of big NL hitters changing leagues recently. The two that came to mind were Vlad and Sheffield. Below are the stat comparisons:

Sheffield AB R HR RBI SB AVG
03 ATL 576 126 39 132 18 .330
04 NYY 573 117 36 121 5 .290

Vlad AB R HR RBI SB AVG
02 MTL 614 106 39 111 9 .336
04 ANA 612 124 39 126 15 .337

I used 2002 stats for Vlad due to 03 being injury shortened.

Although Sheffield's stats are slightly lower, Vlad's stats are slightly higher.

I don't see a pattern here at least with these players.
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Postby DieHardCubbie » Fri Feb 04, 2005 7:13 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote: The Cubs made out on the deal because they were able to replace Sosa with someone getting paid less than 1/3rd of his salary, plus they get that true leadoff they have been needing.


Don't forget that the Cubbies are picking up between $8 and $12 million (varying reports) of Sammy's salary...so not that much of a deal... :-?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Feb 04, 2005 7:25 pm

I'm also not sure who the true leadoff player is that is mentioned. It sure ain't Hairston, who's an injury prone marginal offensive contributor with a below league average on base percentage who gets thrown out stealing 30 percent of the time.
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Postby retraj2 » Fri Feb 04, 2005 7:35 pm

don't underestimate a player's motivation and determination when their pride is put to the test. i feel that sosa is going to have a major season this year.

as for the trades, i don't mind b/c sosa was holding back better hitters from hitting in the middle of the lineup and what team wouldn't love to get 30+ homeruns from their #7 hitter (burnitz)?
also hairston is a better leadoff guy than anybody else on the lineup and his obp is still much higher than patterson's.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Feb 04, 2005 11:04 pm

Pride goeth before the fall.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Jul 02, 2005 1:27 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
eftda wrote:Sosa should have a good year. Mix the avg of the last 3 seasons it it will be about right. I did the numbers but I don't ahve them infront of me.


I disagree. I'd project a .245-.255 BA, 85-95 Runs and RBIs, no steals, and 30-35 HRs. With those numbers, I should explain.

1. Camden versus Wrigley...while people have the perception that Camden is a better hitter's park, it's not. Over the past several years Wrigley has been the stronger hitter's park. So, take your 3 year projection and reduce it by 2-4 percent based on park effects.

Furthermore, Wrigley has a very strong effect (+35% approx.) on homers for RH batters. Camden does, too, but only by about 15%. So, take your homer projection for Sammy and reduce it another 5-10%.

2. While some people are impressed by the Oriole offense, keep in mind that they only finished in the middle of the pack in offense in the AL last year. While they have some good players, they also have some potential black holes in CF, LF, and 1B, and many of their players look better than they really are (low OBP). They only scored about 50 more runs than the Cubs did last year, and in part that's misleading since their basic stats predicted fewer runs (compare their ranking in OPS, for example, to their ranking in runs scored). What happened? Looks like a little luck in a high team batting average. If that drops as I would expect, fewer runs and RBIs will happen. (Although having written that, I looked at Baseball Prospectus more complete analysis and they show the Orioles scoring more runs after adjustment, so maybe I'm wrong)

3. Age, age, age. Sammy's 36. Three years ago he missed 12 games. Two years ago he missed 27 games. Last year, he missed 36 games. A simple three year projection without age adjustment puts him missing 25-30 games again. Add in an age adjustment and you are talking 35-40 games. Now, maybe the O's can rest him and play him at DH, but that can also backfire, as some players struggle being the DH. Even if he plays, Sammy has been declining more rapidly than the typical player over the last three years. While most players decline at 5 percent per year once they hit their mid-30s, Sammy's decline rate has been more like 10-15% per year. Even a 5% decline makes Sammy's numbers look bad. If he continues on his same rate, he's a disaster.

So, in short, I'd say a Sammy rebound, if it happens, is likely to be small. A small decline in BA, maybe a small bounce in R and RBI, and a medium drop in HRs is the likely outcome this year. And, I'd say the risk of a total freaking meltdown is much, much, higher than a return to stardom.

He's just the kind of high risk low reward older player I'll be letting others take the chance on for draft day.


Midseason assessment:

BA: .227, even lower than I predicted and I was among the most pessimistic on Sammy.

Runs: On track for 50-55, again even worse than I expected.

RBI: On track for 55-60, worse than me again.

The O's offense has been better than I expected, but Sammy's been so bad, he's been dropped in the order, hurting his counting stats.

SB: On track for 2.

HRs: On track for 20.

Age: On track to miss 35 to 40 games this year.

Looks like that "total freaking meltdown" that I was worried about was the right prediction.
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