eftda wrote:Sosa should have a good year. Mix the avg of the last 3 seasons it it will be about right. I did the numbers but I don't ahve them infront of me.
I disagree. I'd project a .245-.255 BA, 85-95 Runs and RBIs, no steals, and 30-35 HRs. With those numbers, I should explain.
1. Camden versus Wrigley...while people have the perception that Camden is a better hitter's park, it's not. Over the past several years Wrigley has been the stronger hitter's park. So, take your 3 year projection and reduce it by 2-4 percent based on park effects.
Furthermore, Wrigley has a very strong effect (+35% approx.) on homers for RH batters. Camden does, too, but only by about 15%. So, take your homer projection for Sammy and reduce it another 5-10%.
2. While some people are impressed by the Oriole offense, keep in mind that they only finished in the middle of the pack in offense in the AL last year. While they have some good players, they also have some potential black holes in CF, LF, and 1B, and many of their players look better than they really are (low OBP). They only scored about 50 more runs than the Cubs did last year, and in part that's misleading since their basic stats predicted fewer runs (compare their ranking in OPS, for example, to their ranking in runs scored). What happened? Looks like a little luck in a high team batting average. If that drops as I would expect, fewer runs and RBIs will happen. (Although having written that, I looked at Baseball Prospectus more complete analysis and they show the Orioles scoring more runs after adjustment, so maybe I'm wrong)
3. Age, age, age. Sammy's 36. Three years ago he missed 12 games. Two years ago he missed 27 games. Last year, he missed 36 games. A simple three year projection without age adjustment puts him missing 25-30 games again. Add in an age adjustment and you are talking 35-40 games. Now, maybe the O's can rest him and play him at DH, but that can also backfire, as some players struggle being the DH. Even if he plays, Sammy has been declining more rapidly than the typical player over the last three years. While most players decline at 5 percent per year once they hit their mid-30s, Sammy's decline rate has been more like 10-15% per year. Even a 5% decline makes Sammy's numbers look bad. If he continues on his same rate, he's a disaster.
So, in short, I'd say a Sammy rebound, if it happens, is likely to be small. A small decline in BA, maybe a small bounce in R and RBI, and a medium drop in HRs is the likely outcome this year. And, I'd say the risk of a total freaking meltdown is much, much, higher than a return to stardom.
He's just the kind of high risk low reward older player I'll be letting others take the chance on for draft day.