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Sosa Trade

Postby Absoluterain » Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:00 pm

I got a couple drafts coming up and I was curious to opinions as to who is going to get the most upside off of the Sosa trade?

Also...Would you take a chance on Prior this year...He could have a big comeback year???
Thanks...
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Postby The Jury » Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:54 pm

I'd certainly take a chance on Prior. He's got top fantasy pitcher potential. I haven't read up on his injury progress during the offseason yet, but if he's healthy then as early as the second or third round would be fine by me ;-D
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Postby curious_george_43545 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:56 pm

The Jury wrote:I'd certainly take a chance on Prior. He's got top fantasy pitcher potential. I haven't read up on his injury progress during the offseason yet, but if he's healthy then as early as the second or third round would be fine by me ;-D


Yep Prior should be going in the late second rounds if the members of your league are smart, but if not try to get him.
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Postby davidmarver » Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:02 am

Orioles. Regardless of whether Sosa was a distraction in Chicago or not a team player, the still lose a bat in a Cubs lineup that is much weaker than it was a year before. The Orioles are starting to put together a pretty big slugging lineup.

Fantasy-wise, I like what this does for Brian Roberts as well as Sosa.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:07 am

I think Roberts benefits from guaranteed playing time, and Sosa from having some great hitters in front of him in Tejada and Javy. As for Prior, I would take a risk on him. He just had a down year, hes still a beast.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:37 am

There will be an adjustment period for Sosa. Changing leagues is not an easy thing and last season, Sosa clearly did not look the same. Anyone remember the home run hitting contest?

I just think his best days are behind him. Things will start to ache and he's going to swing at the same pitches he used to tattoo but miss some of them this year. Tough to tell.. but my guess is that he can probably maintain the 04 season but I wouldn't expect him ever get back to hitting 50-60 homers again. Maybe he will prove me wrong.

As for Prior, I worry about all Cubbies pitchers. I have had Kerry Wood on my roster for 4 years now. This is year I am letting him go. I just can't wait anymore. I drafted Prior in his rookie year. Instead of taking the big ticket item in another young phenom, Josh Beckett, I waited a few rounds to draft Mark Prior. Needless to say, he was great for the most part. But again, no pitcher under Baker is safe. I think he will dominate again as long as his heel is right. Watch him carefully during ST.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:53 am

Sosa is in decline IMO both from age and from lack of/less roids. A switch to Camden Yards I do not see as being all that significant. He has a bette rcast of hitters around him, but i think the slide continues or at best is halted with a minor bounce up. Still not worthy of anything but fantasy 3-4 OF material at best. Or he could sneeze again and be useless.
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Postby eftda » Fri Feb 04, 2005 2:11 am

Sosa should have a good year. Mix the avg of the last 3 seasons it it will be about right. I did the numbers but I don't ahve them infront of me.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:56 am

eftda wrote:Sosa should have a good year. Mix the avg of the last 3 seasons it it will be about right. I did the numbers but I don't ahve them infront of me.


I disagree. I'd project a .245-.255 BA, 85-95 Runs and RBIs, no steals, and 30-35 HRs. With those numbers, I should explain.

1. Camden versus Wrigley...while people have the perception that Camden is a better hitter's park, it's not. Over the past several years Wrigley has been the stronger hitter's park. So, take your 3 year projection and reduce it by 2-4 percent based on park effects.

Furthermore, Wrigley has a very strong effect (+35% approx.) on homers for RH batters. Camden does, too, but only by about 15%. So, take your homer projection for Sammy and reduce it another 5-10%.

2. While some people are impressed by the Oriole offense, keep in mind that they only finished in the middle of the pack in offense in the AL last year. While they have some good players, they also have some potential black holes in CF, LF, and 1B, and many of their players look better than they really are (low OBP). They only scored about 50 more runs than the Cubs did last year, and in part that's misleading since their basic stats predicted fewer runs (compare their ranking in OPS, for example, to their ranking in runs scored). What happened? Looks like a little luck in a high team batting average. If that drops as I would expect, fewer runs and RBIs will happen. (Although having written that, I looked at Baseball Prospectus more complete analysis and they show the Orioles scoring more runs after adjustment, so maybe I'm wrong)

3. Age, age, age. Sammy's 36. Three years ago he missed 12 games. Two years ago he missed 27 games. Last year, he missed 36 games. A simple three year projection without age adjustment puts him missing 25-30 games again. Add in an age adjustment and you are talking 35-40 games. Now, maybe the O's can rest him and play him at DH, but that can also backfire, as some players struggle being the DH. Even if he plays, Sammy has been declining more rapidly than the typical player over the last three years. While most players decline at 5 percent per year once they hit their mid-30s, Sammy's decline rate has been more like 10-15% per year. Even a 5% decline makes Sammy's numbers look bad. If he continues on his same rate, he's a disaster.

So, in short, I'd say a Sammy rebound, if it happens, is likely to be small. A small decline in BA, maybe a small bounce in R and RBI, and a medium drop in HRs is the likely outcome this year. And, I'd say the risk of a total freaking meltdown is much, much, higher than a return to stardom.

He's just the kind of high risk low reward older player I'll be letting others take the chance on for draft day.
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Postby stumpak » Fri Feb 04, 2005 2:27 pm

I agree with all of that. Spot on.
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