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17th Overall...too early for Tex?

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Postby curious_george_43545 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 8:50 pm

Hmm. A 24-year old who hits .281, 38 HR, 101 R and 112 RBI. And he's now entering his 3rd season.

5 or 6 is way too low. Not only will you not get him there but you'd have to question a league that let Tex drop passed the 4th.



Thats what I was thinking and I knew he wouldnt get back to me at 3.12 in a 14 team draft and I had the third pick in the second round so.....
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Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 03, 2005 9:01 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Dodgers13 wrote:Man....I need to get back in the swing of things. I never would have guess that Tex would be going in the second round with people thinking that is reasonable.


It's actually good that you are not around then. Because you can probably find a safer pick in the second round.

I do think that Teixeira can be a top 10 hitter by the end of 2005. But the risk is too great that early in the draft. Maybe 5th or 6th is a better deal.
Wow, your value is really screwed up then, he won't last past the third round, and he put up better numbers than 5th 6th last year. And all signs point to him getting better.


You can have him in the 2nd round... I don't draft players based on skewed projections. I account for risk far more in the earlier rounds. I can take my chances in the mid to later rounds. There are plenty of rounds in a draft for me to take risks at. ;-D
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Postby Dodgers13 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 9:12 pm

Amazinz wrote:Hmm. A 24-year old who hits .281, 38 HR, 101 R and 112 RBI. And he's now entering his 3rd season.

5 or 6 is way too low. Not only will you not get him there but you'd have to question a league that let Tex drop passed the 4th.



I agree that 5-6 is too low, but 17th overall is a bit high. That means he is the 2nd or third best 1st baseball(depending on Pujols).
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 9:12 pm

Skewed projections? 40/120/100/.290 is a very modest projection for him, and I would say that puts him in the 2nd round. People who didn't take risks are the same people who end up in the bottom of the league because "Pujols was too risky. circa 2001" Fantasy sports, like poker, is not a game to be cautious with. Sometimes you have to go balls to the wall and hope you hit one.
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Postby crapshooter » Thu Feb 03, 2005 10:23 pm

I think he would be a good pick at 17. He's had his sophmore season and survived it actually doing great...this year should hold a lot of promise
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Postby nikku88 » Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:56 am

I like Tex and see him only getting better.
He's a little risky in the 2nd round but the reward if he pays out will be very high.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:50 am

Tex as the 17th pick?! I think everyone needs to take a deep breath and come back to reality. The hype, hopes, and dreams have far exceeded any semblence of reality. Let's look at the actual numbers.

Tex posted 281-101-38-112 last year. Good numbers, to be sure, but nothing spectacular. He was ranked 44th overall last year in espn's 5x5. Barely ahead of Rollins. Yahoo had him ranked 50-something in 5x5. In fact, Tex was not even in the top 3 1Bs last year. Pujols, Helton, and Ortiz were considerably ahead of him, and he was not far ahead of Hafner and Sean Casey. Some other big sluggers at 1B, Thome and Delgado, were injured or had down years last year, or Tex might not have even been in the top 5 at 1B.

At best, he was 44th overall last year. Do you guys have any idea how much Tex would have to improve to make him a 17th round pick?! Let's put that in perspective. Manny was 16th on espn with 308-108-43-130. Let's not be bashful now. Manny's numbers blew Tex's away. Wasn't even close. Compare his numbers to Tex's and let it sink in just how much Tex would have to improve in 2005 to put him anywhere near the 17th most valuable fantasy player. He'd need to increase his BA by 26 points, runs by 7, HR by 6, and RBI by 18. What are the likelihood he can do that? I'd say very, very slim. Even the wildest projections for Tex don't have him near 308-108-43-130.

So what are his chances of hitting those numbers? Let's put down the hype bong and look at his numbers from 2004. He batted only 300 or more twice in 6 months. He batted 238 or less twice in the same six months (212 in May and 238 in September). Note that he ended the season with the rasberry 238 in September, so all this I hear about a "big slump" at the beginning of the year is misleading. He had a "big slump" at the end of the year too, apparently. So he "slumped" for 3 out of six months? How is that any different than having just 3 good months?

Let's also look at his HR totals. Other than a huge power spike in a single month (13-30 in July) his HR and RBI totals were considerably more pedestrian. Other than 13-30 in July, he never hit more than 7 in a month, and he hit 2, 3, and 5 HR in three months. So, if you take out that strange spike in power in July, you are left with 32-105 or so. A huge difference.

Please don't tell me he was hurt at the beginning of the year and blah, blah, blah. Injuries are a part of the game, and any time a player supposedly spends two months nursing an injury, that sends up some flags for me. It usually does for every other player as well, but somehow Tex gets a pass. Plus, he posted a pitiful 238 BA in September. Was he hurt then too? If so, I think the term "injury prone" applies. If not, then maybe you have to look at his better months with a little more skepticism.

We also have to look at his performance in 2003, which is much more in line with his so-called "slump" months in 2004 than with his better months.

So what does all this mean? To me, it means that seeing Tex jump from 44th overall (at best) to 17th is highly doubtful. And that assumes, of course, that other hot up-and-comers don't also improve. Possible? Of course. But anyone who bets against the odds is by definition playing on hopes and dreams, and far more likely to be disappointed then happy.

And finally, to put things further in perspective, let's look at some of the players who finished AHEAD of Tex in 2004. There's Mora (20), Drew (31), Damon (32), Berkman (34), Young (35), and -- believe it or not -- Pavano (26). Where are these guys going in the draft? Drew and Damon will be lucky if they get drafted in the 7th or 8th. Pavano? He's not even in the top 100 in a lot of draft lists. And yet, every single one of them posted better numbers than Tex in 2004.

And Young? He's also very young, plays on the same great line-up as Tex, plays at a MUCH thinner position than Tex, finished considerably ahead of Tex in the rankings last year, and therefor in any rational draft he should be picked much EARLIER than Tex, no? So why then is he falling 2 or 3 rounds deeper into the draft? Why, pray tell? One word: HYPE.

Let's take a look at one more player. Crawford. He finished 22nd overall last year. Blew Tex away. He's even younger than Tex, and has just as much if not more upside. So if Tex is worth a 17th pick, then what is Crawford? Top 5?

Obviously, everyone is entitled to their own valuation of players. That's what makes fantasy baseball so fun and challenging. Personally, I think Tex is a hot player and expect big things from him. But 17th pick overall?! There's no basis for such a high pick, other than hopes and dreams. They'll burn you every time.
Last edited by Secret Avatar on Fri Feb 04, 2005 2:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby BGbootha » Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:53 am

late second, early third.

of course more late to middle second if its a keeper.
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Postby GameOn » Fri Feb 04, 2005 2:58 am

Secret Avatar wrote:Tex as the 17th pick?! I think everyone needs to take a deep breath and come back to reality. The hype, hopes, and dreams have far exceeded any semblence of reality. Let's look at the actual numbers.

Tex posted 281-101-38-112 last year. Good numbers, to be sure, but nothing spectacular. He was ranked 44th overall last year in espn's 5x5. Barely ahead of Rollins. Yahoo had him ranked 50-something in 5x5. In fact, Tex was not even in the top 3 1Bs last year. Pujols, Helton, and Ortiz were considerably ahead of him, and he was not far ahead of Hafner and Sean Casey. Some other big sluggers at 1B, Thome and Delgado, were injured or had down years last year, or Tex might not have even been in the top 5 at 1B.

At best, he was 44th overall last year. Do you guys have any idea how much Tex would have to improve to make him a 17th round pick?! Let's put that in perspective. Manny was 16th on espn with 308-108-43-130. Let's not be bashful now. Manny's numbers blew Tex's away. Wasn't even close. Compare his numbers to Tex's and let it sink in just how much Tex would have to improve in 2005 to put him anywhere near the 17th most valuable fantasy player. He'd need to increase his BA by 26 points, runs by 7, HR by 6, and RBI by 18. What are the likelihood he can do that? I'd say very, very slim. Even the wildest projections for Tex don't have him near 308-108-43-130.

So what are his chances of hitting those numbers? Let's put down the hype bong and look at his numbers from 2004. He batted only 300 or more twice in 6 months. He batted 238 or less twice in the same six months (212 in May and 238 in September). Note that he ended the season with the rasberry 238 in September, so all this I hear about a "big slump" at the beginning of the year is misleading. He had a "big slump" at the end of the year too, apparently. So he "slumped" for 3 out of six months? How is that any different than having just 3 good months?

Let's also look at his HR totals. Other than a huge power spike in a single month (13-30 in July) his HR and RBI totals were considerably more pedestrian. Other than 13-30 in July, he never hit more than 7 in a month, and he hit 2, 3, and 5 HR in three months. So, if you take out that strange spike in power in July, you are left with 32-105 or so. A huge difference.

Please don't tell me he was hurt at the beginning of the year and blah, blah, blah. Injuries are a part of the game, and any time a player supposedly spends two months nursing an injury, that sends up some flags for me. It usually does for every other player as well, but somehow Tex gets a pass. Plus, he posted a pitiful 238 BA in September. Was he hurt then too? If so, I think the term "injury prone" applies. If not, then maybe you have to look at his better months with a little more skepticism.

We also have to look at his performance in 2003, which is much more in line with his so-called "slump" months in 2004 than with his better months.

So what does all this mean? To me, it means that seeing Tex jump from 44th overall (at best) to 17th is highly doubtful. And that assumes, of course, that other hot up-and-comers don't also improve. Possible? Of course. But anyone who bets against the odds is by definition playing on hopes and dreams, and far more likely to be disappointed then happy.

And finally, to put things further in perspective, let's look at some of the players who finished AHEAD of Tex in 2004. There's Mora (20), Drew (31), Damon (32), Berkman (34), Young (35), and -- believe it or not -- Pavano (26). Where are these guys going in the draft? Drew and Damon will be lucky if they get drafted in the 7th or 8th. Pavano? He's not even in the top 100 in a lot of draft lists. And yet, every single one of them posted better numbers than Tex in 2004.

And Young? He's also very young, plays on the same great line-up as Tex, plays at a MUCH thinner position than Tex, finished considerably ahead of Tex in the rankings last year, and therefor in any rational draft he should be picked much EARLIER than Tex, no? So why then is he falling 2 or 3 rounds deeper into the draft? Why, pray tell? One word: HYPE.

Let's take a look at one more player. Crawford. He finished 22nd overall last year. Blew Tex away. He's even younger than Tex, and has just as much if not more upside. So if Tex is worth a 17th pick, then what is Crawford? Top 5?

Obviously, everyone is entitled to their own valuation of players. That's what makes fantasy baseball so fun and challenging. Personally, I think Tex is a hot player and expect big things from him. But 17th pick overall?! There's no basis for such a high pick, other than hopes and dreams. They'll burn you every time.


If you can use stats to back up your argument that's great...but spare us ESPN and Yahoo projections. There is a reason why you always see threads with those projections and then people proceed to laugh at them. They aren't worth jack.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Fri Feb 04, 2005 3:10 am

"If you can use stats to back up your argument that's great...but spare us ESPN and Yahoo projections. There is a reason why you always see threads with those projections and then people proceed to laugh at them. They aren't worth jack."

Did you even read my post? I didn't post espn PROJECTIONS. I could care less about their projections. I posted espn's ACTUAL RANKINGS for 2004, based on their actual 2004 numbers, using the same 5x5 calculus that determined their fantasy value last year on a given team. These numbers don't lie, and they show that Tex was -- at best -- the 44th most valuable fantasy player last year, based upon his actual 2004 numbers, and that he'll have miles to go to break into the second round.

You can check out the ACTUAL rankings from 2004 right here:

http://games.espn.go.com/cgi/flb/Reques ... 1&Param4=0
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