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A year is a long time in Fantasy Baseball

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A year is a long time in Fantasy Baseball

Postby NZF » Thu Feb 03, 2005 6:25 pm

At the beginning of last season I was singing the praises of Carlos Beltran and at the same time was down on Randy Johnson.

In 12 months I've done a complete about turn for various reasons, most notably, the teams they are now with. That's not to say I don't rate Beltran, I just see him as not great value this year.

Someone else was saying they didn't like Renteria last season but they are high on him this year in Boston.

Who else has completely reversed their opinion on a player? For whatever reason; change of team, age, injury, good or bad draft value.

Some of the other lower profile guys I've also changed opinions on due to being great value this season compared to 2004 are,

Preston Wilson
Bill Mueller
Kevin Millwood
Jim Thome
Derek Lowe
Roy Halladay
Vernon Wells
Angel Berroa
Bartolo Colon


bad value this year compared to last season,

Adam Dunn
Jake Peavy
Scott Podsednik
Vinny Castilla
Miguel Tejada
JD Drew
Jeff Kent
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Postby Pedantic » Thu Feb 03, 2005 6:32 pm

My opinion of Alfonso Soriano has taken a mighty sharp 180. Probably due to the fact that I traded Marcus Giles and Santana for him before the 2004 season. Image :-/
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Re: A year is a long time in Fantasy Baseball

Postby acsguitar » Thu Feb 03, 2005 7:08 pm

Some of the other lower profile guys I've also changed opinions on due to being great value this season compared to 2004 are,

Preston Wilson - Why are you up on him? Going to leave the high ALT
Bill Mueller - Um his fluke season was 2 years ago
Kevin Millwood - I guess
Jim Thome - Old and constantly injured
Derek Lowe - Hopefully he can step it up..Ill give you this one
Roy Halladay - Hes gotta come back
Vernon Wells - Push
Angel Berroa - Sophmore slump?
Bartolo Colon - Up and down


bad value this year compared to last season,

Adam Dunn - He had more HR's and RBIs last year and hit better then before

Jake Peavy - He was incredible last year and has a better team this year

Scott Podsednik - Sophmore Slump; He can only get better and if he can bat 260 hell have 100 SB

Vinny Castilla - No more Coloardo I agree
Miguel Tejada - Bad Value? Hes not got sosa to help his cause

JD Drew - Will the injury bug strike?

Jeff Kent - Why? Hes been consistent every year of his career. on every team

I just think those rankings are strange
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Postby Pablo975 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 7:22 pm

I can see it......Kent and Drew will be both be playing in LA, which is known to crush batters hopes and dreams......

I think Kent turns in a season like: 130 games, .275, 15-20HR, 80 or so RBI. Not bad, but not worthy of a high pick when you could get the same numbers from a later pick.

I think Drew ends up about the same, but with 5-10 more HR.
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Postby blackbearabroad » Thu Feb 03, 2005 7:34 pm

I firmly believe that a large number of people (and hopefully one in my league) will overpay for Podsednik, he is only a great basestealer, yes he does score runs but I do not see last year as a fluke. A player with poor power and poor place discipline he is doubtful to bounce back this year. How many other one year flukes have their been in baseball?
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Re: A year is a long time in Fantasy Baseball

Postby NZF » Thu Feb 03, 2005 7:42 pm

acsguitar wrote:Some of the other lower profile guys I've also changed opinions on due to being great value this season compared to 2004 are,

Preston Wilson - Why are you up on him? Going to leave the high ALT ??? He's staying in Colorado. He'll fall to ridiculous levels this season
Bill Mueller - Um his fluke season was 2 years ago Sure, he's nothing great but you'll get him in the very late rounds and he'll give you good solid production.
Kevin Millwood - I guess
Jim Thome - Old and constantly injured that's why he'll fall in drafts. He's still only 34 and capable of leading the majors in HR's again this season.
Derek Lowe - Hopefully he can step it up..Ill give you this one
Roy Halladay - Hes gotta come back
Vernon Wells - Push No protection they're saying, injury concerns they're saying. He will also fall to crazy levels. Great young hitter still not in his prime, and one of the games legitimate five tool players.
Angel Berroa - Sophmore slump? Yes, that and injury problems. He'll bounce back and give you solid production again for a very late draft pick up.
Bartolo Colon - Up and down. More up than down in the second half. Has a great offense and bullpen behind him. Will produce far more relative to where he'll be drafted this season


bad value this year compared to last season,

Adam Dunn - He had more HR's and RBIs last year and hit better then before He'll get taken too high because he will still kill you in avg. If you use OBP instead of Avg. then sure I agree

Jake Peavy - He was incredible last year and has a better team this year. Better team is debatable. He will be very solid I'm sure but his ERA last year was a fluke. He's also a ticking time bomb to breakdown.

Scott Podsednik - Sophmore Slump; He can only get better and if he can bat 260 hell have 100 SB No, he's never hit for avg. He's changing to the AL and that will make it tougher on him, also there's no certainty he can maintain that SB rate playing for a brand new team. People thought he was a fluke and stayed away from him last year, this is the year they should stay away.
Vinny Castilla - No more Coloardo I agree
Miguel Tejada - Bad Value? Hes not got sosa to help his cause Terrible value. I love the guy because he WILL play everyday for you. However, his RBI totals last year were a fluke and I believe instead of helping his cause, Sosa will harm him. Also, he doesn't even give you the 10 SB's anymore.
JD Drew - Will the injury bug strike? Who knows now he's got a long term contract. That and changing teams for me equals overvalued.
Jeff Kent - Why? Hes been consistent every year of his career. on every team Reasons you gave incorrectly for Thome. Age. 37 and if you look closer you'll see he is in decline. It's been hidden somewhat because he's been playing in possibly the second best right handers park in the major leagues. The move to LA will highlight his decline immensely. Recognised as the best power hitter in a very scarce position, he'll be way over valued come draft time.I just think those rankings are strange


I think they're brilliant
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Re: A year is a long time in Fantasy Baseball

Postby davidmarver » Thu Feb 03, 2005 8:08 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
acsguitar wrote:Some of the other lower profile guys I've also changed opinions on due to being great value this season compared to 2004 are,

Preston Wilson - Why are you up on him? Going to leave the high ALT ??? He's staying in Colorado. He'll fall to ridiculous levels this season
Bill Mueller - Um his fluke season was 2 years ago Sure, he's nothing great but you'll get him in the very late rounds and he'll give you good solid production.
Kevin Millwood - I guess
Jim Thome - Old and constantly injured that's why he'll fall in drafts. He's still only 34 and capable of leading the majors in HR's again this season.
Derek Lowe - Hopefully he can step it up..Ill give you this one
Roy Halladay - Hes gotta come back
Vernon Wells - Push No protection they're saying, injury concerns they're saying. He will also fall to crazy levels. Great young hitter still not in his prime, and one of the games legitimate five tool players.
Angel Berroa - Sophmore slump? Yes, that and injury problems. He'll bounce back and give you solid production again for a very late draft pick up.
Bartolo Colon - Up and down. More up than down in the second half. Has a great offense and bullpen behind him. Will produce far more relative to where he'll be drafted this season


bad value this year compared to last season,

Adam Dunn - He had more HR's and RBIs last year and hit better then before He'll get taken too high because he will still kill you in avg. If you use OBP instead of Avg. then sure I agree

Jake Peavy - He was incredible last year and has a better team this year. Better team is debatable. He will be very solid I'm sure but his ERA last year was a fluke. He's also a ticking time bomb to breakdown.

Scott Podsednik - Sophmore Slump; He can only get better and if he can bat 260 hell have 100 SB No, he's never hit for avg. He's changing to the AL and that will make it tougher on him, also there's no certainty he can maintain that SB rate playing for a brand new team. People thought he was a fluke and stayed away from him last year, this is the year they should stay away.
Vinny Castilla - No more Coloardo I agree
Miguel Tejada - Bad Value? Hes not got sosa to help his cause Terrible value. I love the guy because he WILL play everyday for you. However, his RBI totals last year were a fluke and I believe instead of helping his cause, Sosa will harm him. Also, he doesn't even give you the 10 SB's anymore.
JD Drew - Will the injury bug strike? Who knows now he's got a long term contract. That and changing teams for me equals overvalued.
Jeff Kent - Why? Hes been consistent every year of his career. on every team Reasons you gave incorrectly for Thome. Age. 37 and if you look closer you'll see he is in decline. It's been hidden somewhat because he's been playing in possibly the second best right handers park in the major leagues. The move to LA will highlight his decline immensely. Recognised as the best power hitter in a very scarce position, he'll be way over valued come draft time.I just think those rankings are strange


I think they're brilliant


How can Peavy be a ticking time bomb? He gave up more than 4 earned runs 0 times last year, and only gave up four twice. How can he be a time bomb if the opposing hitters never explode against him?

Oh yeah, he also just destroyed Japan's all-star team when other players were struggling.
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Re: A year is a long time in Fantasy Baseball

Postby NZF » Thu Feb 03, 2005 8:27 pm

davidmarver wrote:
How can Peavy be a ticking time bomb? He gave up more than 4 earned runs 0 times last year, and only gave up four twice. How can he be a time bomb if the opposing hitters never explode against him?

Oh yeah, he also just destroyed Japan's all-star team when other players were struggling.


Ticking time bomb, injury wise. Thought that was pretty self-explanatory.

He has a very suspect delivery.

Just a feeling I have with him. Could be wrong but I'm thinking he spends some time on the DL this season. He'll be drafted among the Top 10 pitchers in the majors. Some may even take him Top 5, that's over valued IMO.
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Postby djacks » Thu Feb 03, 2005 8:27 pm

I'd like to know why everyone thinks Tejada's 150 RBI last year were a fluke? He's a great clutch hitter in a very good lineup...and how in the world is Sosa gonna hurt him?!? Granted he may not get 150 RBI again this year, but that doesn't make it a fluke...he's certainly capable of doing it again.
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Thu Feb 03, 2005 8:37 pm

My 180-degree turnaround is on Mulder, who I've yanked entirely from my draft sheets after he single-handedly roasted my playoff hopes last year.
For the last two months he was basically Shawn Chacon, without the saves. Since neither he nor A's brass ever admitted he was injured, I'm just gonna have to assume he's lost his velocity, movement, location and ability to get major-league hitters out. Good luck, Cards fans.
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