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Ortiz, Gagne or Teixeira?

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Postby Rico The Retard » Thu Feb 03, 2005 7:32 pm

lbbaseball14 wrote:I'll take Ortiz all day... thank you very much.


as much as i like big papi, ill take Tex all day.....thank you very much
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Postby cordscords » Thu Feb 03, 2005 7:33 pm

I'll take Ortiz over Tex right now.
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Postby Pokey » Thu Feb 03, 2005 7:34 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote: Ortiz can't improve on his 04 numbers.


Where does this notion come from? People didn't think he could improve on his '03 numbers either. Ortiz has been getting nothing but better the last two years, despite the fact that he played most of last year hurt.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Thu Feb 03, 2005 7:51 pm

Key word: keeper!

Give me Tex anyday over those guys (although I wouldnt mind having them on my team either). Its just that in a keeper, I would take Tex at #14. Why not spend that pick on a future #5 pick?
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 7:55 pm

Pokey wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote: Ortiz can't improve on his 04 numbers.


Where does this notion come from? People didn't think he could improve on his '03 numbers either. Ortiz has been getting nothing but better the last two years, despite the fact that he played most of last year hurt.
I feel hes maxed his ceiling. Maybe a few more runs, but I can't see him putting up better numbers than last year.
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Postby tvv44 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 8:57 pm

The guy I really want is Gagne, but I think 2nd round in a 12 team keeper league is a tad too early. The only problem is - I know Gagne won't still be there when I pick in the 3rd round.

I guess I have to go with Tex due to the league being a keeper.

Thanks guys - talked me into it!
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Postby Secret Avatar » Fri Feb 04, 2005 2:40 am

Who else is available? I think Tex in the second round is very optimistic. I'd take Ortiz because he has ALREADY put up the numbers that Tex has NOT, but that everyone is thinking (hoping?) he will. I'll take the proven player every time over speculation.

Tex posted 281-101-38-112 last year. Good numbers, to be sure, but nothing spectacular. He was ranked 44th overall last year in espn's 5x5. Barely ahead of Rollins. Yahoo had him ranked 50-something in 5x5. In fact, Tex was not even in the top 3 1Bs last year. Pujols, Helton, and Ortiz were considerably ahead of him, and he was not far ahead of Hafner and Sean Casey. Some other big sluggers at 1B, Thome and Delgado, were injured or had down years last year, or Tex might not have even been in the top 5 at 1B.

At best, he was 44th overall last year. Do you guys have any idea how much Tex would have to improve to make him a 2nd round pick?! Let's put that in perspective. Manny was 16th on espn with 308-108-43-130. Let's not be bashful now. Manny's numbers blew Tex's away. Wasn't even close. Compare his numbers to Tex's and let it sink in just how much Tex would have to improve in 2005 to put him in the second round. He'd need to increase his BA by 26 points, runs by 7, HR by 6, and RBI by 18. What are the likelihood he can do that? I'd say very, very slim. Even the wildest projections for Tex don't have him near 308-108-43-130.

So what are his chances of hitting those numbers? Let's put down the hype bong and look at his numbers from 2004. He batted only 300 or more twice in 6 months. He batted 238 or less twice in the same six months (212 in May and 238 in September). Note that he ended the season with the rasberry 238 in September, so all this I hear about a "big slump" at the beginning of the year is misleading. He had a "big slump" at the end of the year too, apparently. So he "slumped" for 3 out of six months? How is that any different than having just 3 good months?

Let's also look at his HR totals. Other than a huge power spike in a single month (13-30 in July) his HR and RBI totals were considerably more pedestrian. Other than 13-30 in July, he never hit more than 7 in a month, and he hit 2, 3, and 5 HR in three months. So, if you take out that strange spike in power in July, you are left with 32-105 or so. A huge difference.

Please don't tell me he was hurt at the beginning of the year and blah, blah, blah. Injuries are a part of the game, and any time a player supposedly spends two months nursing an injury, that sends up some flags for me. It usually does for every other player as well, but somehow Tex gets a pass. Plus, he posted a pitiful 238 BA in September. Was he hurt then too? If so, I think the term "injury prone" applies. If not, then maybe you have to look at his better months with a little more skepticism.

We also have to look at his performance in 2003, which is much more in line with his so-called "slump" months in 2004 than with his better months.

So what does all this mean? To me, it means that seeing Tex jump from 44th overall (at best) to second-round value is highly doubtful. And that assumes, of course, that other hot up-and-comers don't also improve. Possible? Of course. But anyone who bets against the odds is by definition playing on hopes and dreams, and far more likely to be disappointed then happy.

And finally, to put things further in perspective, let's look at some of the players who finished AHEAD of Tex in 2004. There's Mora (20), Drew (31), Damon (32), Berkman (34), Young (35), and -- believe it or not -- Pavano (26). Where are these guys going in the draft? Drew and Damon will be lucky if they get drafted in the 7th or 8th. Pavano? He's not even in the top 100 in a lot of draft lists. And yet, every single one of them posted better numbers than Tex in 2004.

And Young? He's also very young, plays on the same great line-up as Tex, plays at a MUCH thinner position than Tex, finished considerably ahead of Tex in the rankings last year, and therefor in any rational draft he should be picked much EARLIER than Tex, no? So why then is he falling 2 or 3 rounds deeper into the draft? Why, pray tell? One word: HYPE.

Let's take a look at one more player. Crawford. He finished 22nd overall last year. Blew Tex away. He's even younger than Tex, and has just as much if not more upside. So if Tex is worth a second round pick pick, then what is Crawford? Top 5?

Obviously, everyone is entitled to their own valuation of players. That's what makes fantasy baseball so fun and challenging. Personally, I think Tex is a hot player and expect big things from him. But 2nd round? There's no basis for such a high pick, other than hopes and dreams. They'll burn you every time.
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Postby prose749 » Fri Feb 04, 2005 4:15 am

Texeira,Completely agree, OVERATED, ESPECIALLY IN THE CAFE!!

3rd rd pick in my mind. I've changed alot of my draft positions due to mocks and player evaluations in the past few WEEKS. I just see to much emphasis on keeper value around here. I can see I'm in the minority around here, except for the previous post, which I think pretty well summed it up in my mind. I'm sure this post will continue on forever, but the facts don't lie and future performance is only based on opinions and wishful dreams. Texeira could be the next big star" I think he'll post top 5 1st base #'s" but has not warranted the credit he is being given. I think he needs another yr or so and then we can talk. He is in a perfect situation this yr though. Texas lineup, good park, young age, heart of the order. He could prove me wrong. I just think 2nd rd is to early to draft a could be type of player instead of a proven stud. I have Tex at #4 in my 1st base depth chart this year, although guys like Sexson and Delgado are going a little later and will put up similiar value this yr. I'll take my chances with one of them and save that 2nd rd pick for someone else. I don't doubt he's a keeper, but I don't like wasting early picks or bids on players who will help my team next yr for that kind of price. I'll draft for this yr and take my chances on the next.

I'm gonna get it on this post,I can feel it. So much for drinking and typing at the same time. Hey, it's only 2:15 here, I'm home early!!
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Postby ukrneal » Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:11 am

I can't justify Tex in the 2nd round either. I'd rather have Santana, Thome, or Ortiz. Of those, I'd go Santana, Ortiz, Thome. Although, Thome is just so consistent. I like that in a player.
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Feb 04, 2005 7:05 am

Not this probably matters much, but in the so called expert mocks i have seen, it has gone
Gagne
Ortiz
Tex

However, i really wouldn't draft any of those 3 in round 2 of a keeper, especially a closer. There has to be some options there you aren't telling us?
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