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Cabrera vs. Teixeira

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Postby ravenmad22 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 9:51 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:You know whats scarier? Pujols was putting up a .300+ AVG at that age. I think the AB, being a more quantitive factor than the whole age thing, is a more valid point. Tex hit a HR in every 14.3 AB. Extrapolating that to MCabs, that means he hits 4 more HRs for a total of 42. He put up an RBI every 4.9 AB. Meaning 11 more RBIs for a total of 123. He puts up a run every 5.4 AB. Meaning 10 more runs for 111. So if Tex gets the same amount of AB, which he probably does if he doesn't strain an oblique in April, he ends up with better numbers across the board except in average. So, if you still think they were ridiculously close, then go for it. And, Tex, in a monster season, could hit 50 HR. He has that power. MCab, I doubt he will ever hit 50. 40, yeah. But, he just doesn't have the power that Tex has.


Once Cabrera grows into his body and gets his "man-strength" he'll be better than Tex. This year it's a toss-up, but I think it's clear from what cabrera is doing at 21 that he will have the better career than tex.

Outside of pujols, who can you think of that was this productive at 21? Not even bonds... You'd have to look at some pretty old-school players to find one on par with what cabrera is doing at his age.

So, if you're in a keeper league, Cabrera by a landslide. If you're in a redraft league, slight edge to tex.
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Postby slomo007 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 9:53 pm

ravenmad22 wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote:You know whats scarier? Pujols was putting up a .300+ AVG at that age. I think the AB, being a more quantitive factor than the whole age thing, is a more valid point. Tex hit a HR in every 14.3 AB. Extrapolating that to MCabs, that means he hits 4 more HRs for a total of 42. He put up an RBI every 4.9 AB. Meaning 11 more RBIs for a total of 123. He puts up a run every 5.4 AB. Meaning 10 more runs for 111. So if Tex gets the same amount of AB, which he probably does if he doesn't strain an oblique in April, he ends up with better numbers across the board except in average. So, if you still think they were ridiculously close, then go for it. And, Tex, in a monster season, could hit 50 HR. He has that power. MCab, I doubt he will ever hit 50. 40, yeah. But, he just doesn't have the power that Tex has.


Once Cabrera grows into his body and gets his "man-strength" he'll be better than Tex. This year it's a toss-up, but I think it's clear from what cabrera is doing at 21 that he will have the better career than tex.

Outside of pujols, who can you think of that was this productive at 21? Not even bonds... You'd have to look at some pretty old-school players to find one on par with what cabrera is doing at his age.

So, if you're in a keeper league, Cabrera by a landslide. If you're in a redraft league, slight edge to tex.


Griffey and Pujols did it, but I do agree with you, I like Miggy's ceiling just slightly more. I love Tex too though, heck I'm a Rangers fan.
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Postby Edwin » Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:13 pm

In terms of this age debate between Teixeira and Cabrera, call me crazy, but how do we even know if Cabrera is actually 21?

Anybody got official papers for me?
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Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:15 pm

Think about this. When you were 17, graduating from high school, you were happy enough to go to college and do whatever everyone else did.

Cabrera went to rookie ball because he was that good. Then in 01, as an 18 year old, he played at A Ball continuing to learn and improve. Most of us were in college, partying and trying to hook up with chicks. At age 19, they moved him up another level where he did better than the level below. So in 03, at a tender age of 20, he started at AA. But he put up ridiculous numbers dominating the league with a .365 average and a 1.038 OPS. So the Marlins, in the midst of their stretch run lost their 3B. So who do they call up? Miguel Cabrera, who spent literally less than 3 months in AA to help them win. He came up and he filled in better than anyone could ask a kid who hasn't spent a day over AA ball. He put up 'modest' numbers: 12 HRs, 62 RBI, in only 315 ABs, with an average of .268. Then he was a crucial component of the 2003 World Series Champions batting .265 with 4 HR, 12 RBI in 17 games. When you are 20 years old, the game is not supposed to be this easy.

Wait, there is more? 04, now finally drinking age (we all remember when we turned 21) and in only his FIRST full season as a regular in MLB, he torched NL pitchers hitting 33 bombs, 112 RBI with a 'cool' .294 batting average.

Check out the progression in his stats.:
http://www.sports-wired.com/profiles/CA/tbc4762.asp. They are unbelievable. He got better as he moved up a level and at the top, he is starting to DOMINATE. So I don't want to hear about how awesome Teixeira is, will be or how much better you prefer him to Miggy. Teixeira was getting DRAFTED when he was 21. Cabrera's progression is off the charts. He will be a top 5 player in all of baseball if he keeps leaping up like this. I have yet to see another player do this kind of thing except Pujols. I love Pujols but I gotta be honest here. Due to such little evidence in terms of track record, I am a little skeptical of his age. He could be in his peak right now but that is another story. I just think Miggy is one of those you can't miss type players and to me, the only thing that can stop him from getting better is an injury.
Last edited by Yoda on Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:24 pm

Whatever. It is pointless to argue, its my opinion versus yours, so we'll settle this at the end of the year ok? Its way too early to tell if Cabrera is going to be huge in a keeper league, because hes so young. What if he just drops the bottom out like Beltre did? Not saying he will, in fact I hope he doesn't because I shelled out 22 bucks for him, but I can't rule it out.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:26 am

That is precisely why I wouldn't pick him in the first round. I would probably 2nd or 3rd.

Look, Teixeira is an awesome player, I agree. I drafted him when he was a rookie. He may have a better year than Miggy this season. I just don't think it is fair to compare the two because we don't know what Miggy will do in 3 years when he turns Teixeira's age. All this and Teixeira plays in a hitter's heaven with a much better line up.

If you watch Cabrera, you just can't fool him twice. He does remind me a lot of Manny when he first broke in. They make the same type of adjustments at the plate and they both make it look so easy.
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Postby GameOn » Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:21 am

Yoda, here you are telling everyone that you are objective and you are basically just getting on your knees and worshipping cabrera. Here is evidence that Teixeira is better. I personally do not understand the whole age thing...there is only a 3 year age gap (if Cabrera is really 21 right now, which could very easily be false) and with Teixeira at 24 I do not really see any weight to an argument that says cabrera is better because he is younger. Fact is, we haven't seen what either Teixeira or Cabrera are capable of. Cabrera played an injury free season, if I remember correctly, and Teixeira wasn't healthy for at least 150 of his ABs. So, I think you could even argue that we saw last year what a healthy 21 year old Cabrera could accomplish; however, we did not really see what a healthy 24 year old teixeira could have accomplished. Tex hit 2 homers in the first week of the season and then got hurt, if he had not have gotten hurt I think he might have reached 50 HRs.

Second, Cabrera's minor league stats are good...but they aren't ungodly like you make them out to be. He never hit more than 10 homers in a minor league season (his last season he only had 266 ABs though so I guess if you double it for about 500 ABs he would have had around 20). Whereas, Tex only spent one year in the minors before being called up and he hit 19 homers in only 221 ABs! It's not like Miggy Cabrera put up Ian Stewart calibre numbers or anything, I mean he has good minor league numbers but they aren't insanely good.

Last, funny that you should not include OPS in your statistical comparison of the two players...

Player A: 545 ABs 101 Rs 38 HRs 112 RBI 68 BB 117 SO .281 AVG .370 OBP .560 SLUG .930 OPS

Player B: 603 ABs 101 Rs 33 HRs 112 RBI 68 BB 148 SO .294 AVG .366 OBP .512 SLUG .878 OPS

And considering that Tex did it in almost 60 less ABs....
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Feb 04, 2005 7:51 am

I think we just had this thread last week? Two guys with very high ceilings. This year i take Tex, in a keeper it's a toss up. I do like Tex ability to match up (switch hit), and the huge edge in park effects. YODA makes a good point about age in development. Although foreign born players true ages are a question mark. Personally, i don't think there's another Pujols out there. MCab reminds me of Manny, with a bit less average. These guys are close, so i don't really buy anyone saying one is a slam dunk over the other. The difference of 50 abs isn't a argument, nor can you extrapolate the numbers. I do think MCab had a bit more luck as far as average last year (Tex hit rate %29, to MCab 35%). Tex 2nd half splits are way in his favor (975 ops to 847), 26 hrs to 14 hrs. MCab did only hit 212 the last month. So it seems Tex has adjusted a bit more, but he should since he has the age/experience factor. Career wise, hard to say, both are going to be huge.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 04, 2005 10:17 am

HOOTIE wrote:I think we just had this thread last week? Two guys with very high ceilings. This year i take Tex, in a keeper it's a toss up. I do like Tex ability to match up (switch hit), and the huge edge in park effects. YODA makes a good point about age in development. Although foreign born players true ages are a question mark. Personally, i don't think there's another Pujols out there. MCab reminds me of Manny, with a bit less average. These guys are close, so i don't really buy anyone saying one is a slam dunk over the other. The difference of 50 abs isn't a argument, nor can you extrapolate the numbers. I do think MCab had a bit more luck as far as average last year (Tex hit rate %29, to MCab 35%). Tex 2nd half splits are way in his favor (975 ops to 847), 26 hrs to 14 hrs. MCab did only hit 212 the last month. So it seems Tex has adjusted a bit more, but he should since he has the age/experience factor. Career wise, hard to say, both are going to be huge.


Age is HUGE factor in baseball. I do not know if there is a study out there but an average ball player's shelf life has to be less than 10 years in the big leagues.

Looking at the two players objectively, right now, Cabrera is on a MUCH quicker path to stardom. He is doing what most people in their mid 20s and beyond can only dream about doing. The 3 year difference ESPECIALLY at his age is light years. As great as Teix is, he was playing amateur ball against college kids at 21.

In any case, I will put this thread to rest. I like Teixeira a lot. I thikn he has a chance to become a great ball player and perhaps one of the best hitters in the game. However, assuming injuries or other factors do not slow them down and if both players continue to progress at their current pace, Cabrera's ceiling is MUCH higher just based on his age alone.
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Postby MARLINHOMER » Fri Feb 04, 2005 10:36 am

You are comparing two very good young players, with similar, skills, age and potential.

But what would make me select Cabrera over Texeira is the impact of Carlos Delgado hitting behind him. I could see Cabrera getting alot more pitches to hit this year, reulting in better numbers.

Otherwise, flipping a coin could be just as good as all the analysis.
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