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why so high on Beltran?

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Postby Brendo » Thu Feb 03, 2005 9:36 pm

Tony Clark is my son wrote:Beltran is overrated. He does what Bobby Abreu does EVERY YEAR, but Bobby goes unnoticed. Don't get me wrong, Beltran's postseason was unimaginably good, but the thing that scares me is his .267 average. (Abreu consistantly hits .300)


apparently not many people agree with this, which is fine....I wish you were all in my league.
Just because everyone SAYS Beltran is the best doesn't make him the best.
He's never been hyped as the #1 overall player until he came off a magical post season and signed a huge contract in the #1 media market

Abreau jsut does it every year...power and average, and 40 SB's last year.
Granted his numbers could go down, but so could Beltran's.

We judge based on past history, and there is no getting around Abreau has the better track record
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 03, 2005 9:45 pm

Brendo wrote:
Tony Clark is my son wrote:Beltran is overrated. He does what Bobby Abreu does EVERY YEAR, but Bobby goes unnoticed. Don't get me wrong, Beltran's postseason was unimaginably good, but the thing that scares me is his .267 average. (Abreu consistantly hits .300)


apparently not many people agree with this, which is fine....I wish you were all in my league.
Just because everyone SAYS Beltran is the best doesn't make him the best.
He's never been hyped as the #1 overall player until he came off a magical post season and signed a huge contract in the #1 media market


I was saying he'd be the #1 player in 2005 pretty much all last season, well before the playoff streak. You can generalize all you want about why people think he is the number one pick, and I guess I generalize too when I say people who think he's over-rated don't know the true value of SB's.

Anyway Beltran is Bobby Abreu with a lot more SB's and more power potential. You guys draft him where you want though.
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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Feb 03, 2005 10:36 pm

I wish people would quit saying Abreu had a career year. Simply not true. SB(by4), and W were the only catergories he had career highs in.

One thing not being mentioned is Beltrans poor splits at Kauffman average wise. I think Beltran will be fine in power, but he hasn't hit for much on road in career average wise. I think those who are hoping for 130 runs and rbis will be disappointed. It basically comes down to if Beltran keeps running at a 30+ clip, and can hit for average with no park helping him.

Bold move going #1, when safer picks (Pujols/Vlad) are there.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Fri Feb 04, 2005 3:04 am

I'd take Abreu over Beltran. I'd take Helton over Beltran too. In fact, I'd take at least 6 other guys ahead of Beltran.

Beltran has NEVER -- not ever -- proven he can hit for both power and average. Yeah, he hit 38 HR last year, but with a 267 BA (258 in Houston). Prior to that, he never came close to 38 HR. Now he's going to a much tougher hitters park that depresses HR. And someone earlier said that's actually GOOD for him?! Not in my book. If his power drops, his value drops.

His BA last year was not very good. Yeah, I know he hit for better average in earlier years, but to me the best evidence of what a guy is likely to do is what he's most recently done. Unlike someone said earlier in this tread, lack of steals CANNOT hurt you and low average CAN. That's because steals are cumulative only. BA is AVERAGED together, so a low BA will absolutely, positively hurt your numbers by REDUCING your overall BA. It's much better to grab Abreu or Helton and make up some steals later on.

If his steals drop, his fantasy value will drop off the map. Steals can be so transient. Take a look at just about every other big-money 40-40 threat and you'll see that, all of a sudden, their steals drop like a rock: A-Rod, Vlad, Soriano, etc. Do you really want to risk a top-3 pick on a guy whose value could instantly plummet because of a drop in power and/or steals?
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Postby umcsom » Fri Feb 04, 2005 3:59 am

Secret Avatar wrote:Unlike someone said earlier in this tread, lack of steals CANNOT hurt you and low average CAN. That's because steals are cumulative only. BA is AVERAGED together, so a low BA will absolutely, positively hurt your numbers by REDUCING your overall BA.


I am glad someone else besides me feels this way. I was not going to say this because it seemed like noone else would believe it.
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Postby ukrneal » Fri Feb 04, 2005 4:55 am

It appears that the different opinions about Beltran have to do with how well people think he will do next year.

Will it be...
1) 120-40-110-40-.305
2) 110-33-110-40-.300
3) 105-30-105-30-.285
4) 100-27-100-25-.270
5) 100-40-110-25-.265

What is interesting is that nearly every one of the above projections comes close to some number he achieved in his past.

What I like most about him is his increasing walks and decreasing K's. While having an average average for 2004, his OBP was 30 points higher than league average. His OPS was significantly higher than average as well. Interesting that even if you add the difference between Abreu and Beltran's average, Abreu still had the higher OPS. While Beltran had a low average last year, I don't see him as an Adam Dunn.

I've always belived that Abreu was under-valued. I got him and Rolen last year in a trade for Halladay and A Ramirez and ran away with my roto league. While this hasn't made me reassess my draft location for Beltran (I've currently got him #5-8), it has made me re-assess my draft position for Abreu (currently #10-14). On the other hand, I beleive that Abreu doesn't get the hype and can still be gotten later in many (not all) drafts. I guess we'll see...
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Postby fantasyfiend » Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:40 am

Much better offensive production at Mile High 2 (aka citizen bank)

Abreu # at home:
.314/.451/.552

Abreu # on road:
.290/.405/.535

Seems people are completely neglecting ballpark factors, abreu should easily hit 30 HR this season..

Abreu is a crafty runner, he was caught 5 times on 40 attempts last year, so the running shouldn't stop.

if im not mistaken Shea yielded the 5th fewest runs.

beltran's health is now worth 15+ million a season, when your tagged the franchise i dont care how successful you are swiping bags, coaches will send him with extreme caution.

with all that being said beltran still has the better value because of the higher ceiling IMO
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Postby swingaway » Fri Feb 04, 2005 7:47 am

arent we forgetting that the belt had to switch leagues also which could of most defintaley affected his ba. The belt is clearly a top 4 pick this year and Abreu should be drafted late first early 2nd round imo due to Abreu in a good hitting park.
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Postby Dark Knight » Fri Feb 04, 2005 2:03 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
red wrote:I go Beltran #3; Pujols, Arod (true 5 cats, and I think that average has to get better); then Beltran. I wouldn't take Vlad in front of Beltran simply because Vlad looks like he's limping every time he walks back to the dugout. Scares the heck out of me.


Red - what would you say if I told you Arod wasnt even a top 10 hitter last yr, and he barely made the top 15 overall? You would probably say he had a down yr, right? But what if you looked at his road splits while he was in TEX? Those numbers suggest precisely what you saw from him last yr. The park affect in TEX had a massive impact on Arod, and if you think he will return to the type of numbers he had in Arlington you're kidding yourself.


Don't sleep on A-Rod this season. A-Rod has spent the off season working out with the University of Miami's baseball team and their strength coach. 6 days a week he has been pushing sleds, lifting weights, and running sprints with the Miami varsity team. I darn sure hope though, my fantasy leaguemates sleep on A-Rod, so I can steal him late in the draft.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 04, 2005 2:35 pm

Brendo wrote:
Tony Clark is my son wrote:Beltran is overrated. He does what Bobby Abreu does EVERY YEAR, but Bobby goes unnoticed. Don't get me wrong, Beltran's postseason was unimaginably good, but the thing that scares me is his .267 average. (Abreu consistantly hits .300)


apparently not many people agree with this, which is fine....I wish you were all in my league.
Just because everyone SAYS Beltran is the best doesn't make him the best.
He's never been hyped as the #1 overall player until he came off a magical post season and signed a huge contract in the #1 media market

Abreau jsut does it every year...power and average, and 40 SB's last year.
Granted his numbers could go down, but so could Beltran's.

We judge based on past history, and there is no getting around Abreau has the better track record


Absolutely agreed Brendo. I prefer Abreu slightly this season over Beltran but it is extremely close.
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