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why so high on Beltran?

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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 03, 2005 6:03 pm

I think what it comes down to is people not realizing how important SB's are. I don't think Beltran will get many more than 25 HR's, but I still think he'll be the most valuable fantasy player. Carl Crawford is already a first rounder in many peoples' eyes. Imagine if he added 15 HR's and a ton of RBI to his stats. That's Carlos Beltran. You guys can have Helton. He had hardly any R/RBI last year and now he's lost the 3 best hitters from his team over the winter. He has mediocre HR's for a 1B, average R/RBI, no SB's, and a great BA. There's no way I'd take that over Beltran.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 03, 2005 6:03 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
red wrote:I go Beltran #3; Pujols, Arod (true 5 cats, and I think that average has to get better); then Beltran. I wouldn't take Vlad in front of Beltran simply because Vlad looks like he's limping every time he walks back to the dugout. Scares the heck out of me.


Red - what would you say if I told you Arod wasnt even a top 10 hitter last yr, and he barely made the top 15 overall? You would probably say he had a down yr, right? But what if you looked at his road splits while he was in TEX? Those numbers suggest precisely what you saw from him last yr. The park affect in TEX had a massive impact on Arod, and if you think he will return to the type of numbers he had in Arlington you're kidding yourself.


Arod was a top 10 fantasy player even after a subpar year. He needed some time to adjust. He was not very good in the beginning portion of the season. I expect him to step it up big time again in 05.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 03, 2005 6:06 pm

Yoda wrote:Arod was a top 10 fantasy player even after a subpar year. He needed some time to adjust. He was not very good in the beginning portion of the season. I expect him to step it up big time again in 05.


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12th overall hitter in '04.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 03, 2005 6:11 pm

Yoda wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
red wrote:I go Beltran #3; Pujols, Arod (true 5 cats, and I think that average has to get better); then Beltran. I wouldn't take Vlad in front of Beltran simply because Vlad looks like he's limping every time he walks back to the dugout. Scares the heck out of me.


Red - what would you say if I told you Arod wasnt even a top 10 hitter last yr, and he barely made the top 15 overall? You would probably say he had a down yr, right? But what if you looked at his road splits while he was in TEX? Those numbers suggest precisely what you saw from him last yr. The park affect in TEX had a massive impact on Arod, and if you think he will return to the type of numbers he had in Arlington you're kidding yourself.


Arod was a top 10 fantasy player even after a subpar year. He needed some time to adjust. He was not very good in the beginning portion of the season. I expect him to step it up big time again in 05.


Well if you're expecting MORE out of A-Rod, I think you're in trouble. I think his production will take a hit this year; he's lucky he had those 28 SB's or he would have been a complete bust. I can't see him getting 20 this year. He's a borderline first rounder IMO... I'd take him around 10th or 11th overall. But I doubt he'll ever get that far because people remember the amazing park he played in while with Texas, and the fact he used to qualify at SS. If not for his 5 years or so of being the consensus #1 pick he probably wouldn't be a for sure first rounder, let alone top 3 or 4 pick which lots of people have him pegged for. But that's a good thing IMO, I'd rather have a better chance at the top players by having others snag A-Rod too early.
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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Thu Feb 03, 2005 6:24 pm

Although I'd previously considered Beltran to be questionable even at 4th overall, I may bump him up a bit thanks to reading this topic. After all the talk about how he can't hit for power and average at the same time, I forgot that he's also always hit for average or power, which means you're guaranteed one or the other. Also, there's no question that his 30-50 stolen bases is more valuable that Helton's high BA...and certainly, I would expect Beltran's BA to be comparable to A-Rod's this year.

Speaking of A-Rod, though, I'm not sure that his good numbers during his Texas years were all due to Arlington. Here are his projected numbers for '01-'03 if he had played all his games away:

R-HR-RBI-SB-AVG
2001: 124-52-140-10-.276
2002: 102-46-120-8-.277
2003: 114-42-94-18-.282

Although the BA is certainly lower than his home BA, don't forget that he had plenty of high-BA seasons in Seattle (as well as high power numbers). Also, the runs and RBI's should be expected to be higher than this, since he's surrounded by a much better lineup than the one he had when he was playing in Texas (not to mention that I would guess his low AVG with RISP last year was a fluke). The SB's should be at a minimum of around 15-20, since the Yanks like to run more. To me, this indicates that even if he doesn't return to 57 homers, he could very well put up numbers like this:

120-45-120-25-.280

Meanwhile, I'd expect Beltran's runs and RBI's to be a bit lower, since his surrounding lineup is a bit worse, not to mention that I would expect more like 35 HR. His BA should be comparable, maybe even a bit higher than A-Rod's. Basically, then, it all comes down to the SB. Personally, I expect at least 35, perhaps as much as 45 or 50. I think that makes him definitely just as good as A-Rod, probably better. However, I still feel that A-Rod is the clear #4.

Now, if Pujols' foot becomes more of a concern as the season appraoches...well, who knows! But for now, I'd put Pujols at #1, Vlad #2, Beltran #3, and A-Rod #4.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 03, 2005 6:45 pm

LBJackal wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
red wrote:I go Beltran #3; Pujols, Arod (true 5 cats, and I think that average has to get better); then Beltran. I wouldn't take Vlad in front of Beltran simply because Vlad looks like he's limping every time he walks back to the dugout. Scares the heck out of me.


Red - what would you say if I told you Arod wasnt even a top 10 hitter last yr, and he barely made the top 15 overall? You would probably say he had a down yr, right? But what if you looked at his road splits while he was in TEX? Those numbers suggest precisely what you saw from him last yr. The park affect in TEX had a massive impact on Arod, and if you think he will return to the type of numbers he had in Arlington you're kidding yourself.


Arod was a top 10 fantasy player even after a subpar year. He needed some time to adjust. He was not very good in the beginning portion of the season. I expect him to step it up big time again in 05.


Well if you're expecting MORE out of A-Rod, I think you're in trouble. I think his production will take a hit this year; he's lucky he had those 28 SB's or he would have been a complete bust. I can't see him getting 20 this year. He's a borderline first rounder IMO... I'd take him around 10th or 11th overall. But I doubt he'll ever get that far because people remember the amazing park he played in while with Texas, and the fact he used to qualify at SS. If not for his 5 years or so of being the consensus #1 pick he probably wouldn't be a for sure first rounder, let alone top 3 or 4 pick which lots of people have him pegged for. But that's a good thing IMO, I'd rather have a better chance at the top players by having others snag A-Rod too early.


That is a bold move predicting that a 29 year old with a career OPS of .955 and 381 HRs with a .300+ batting average won't finish top 20.

FYI... At Yankees Stadium, in 122 games, 484 AB, 88 R, 31 HR, 87 RBI, .283 is right in line with his career average. My opinion is that he pressed too hard especially in the beginning which resulted in subpar numbers compared to his career average. We'll see I guess.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 03, 2005 6:57 pm

Yoda wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
red wrote:I go Beltran #3; Pujols, Arod (true 5 cats, and I think that average has to get better); then Beltran. I wouldn't take Vlad in front of Beltran simply because Vlad looks like he's limping every time he walks back to the dugout. Scares the heck out of me.


Red - what would you say if I told you Arod wasnt even a top 10 hitter last yr, and he barely made the top 15 overall? You would probably say he had a down yr, right? But what if you looked at his road splits while he was in TEX? Those numbers suggest precisely what you saw from him last yr. The park affect in TEX had a massive impact on Arod, and if you think he will return to the type of numbers he had in Arlington you're kidding yourself.


Arod was a top 10 fantasy player even after a subpar year. He needed some time to adjust. He was not very good in the beginning portion of the season. I expect him to step it up big time again in 05.


Well if you're expecting MORE out of A-Rod, I think you're in trouble. I think his production will take a hit this year; he's lucky he had those 28 SB's or he would have been a complete bust. I can't see him getting 20 this year. He's a borderline first rounder IMO... I'd take him around 10th or 11th overall. But I doubt he'll ever get that far because people remember the amazing park he played in while with Texas, and the fact he used to qualify at SS. If not for his 5 years or so of being the consensus #1 pick he probably wouldn't be a for sure first rounder, let alone top 3 or 4 pick which lots of people have him pegged for. But that's a good thing IMO, I'd rather have a better chance at the top players by having others snag A-Rod too early.


That is a bold move predicting that a 29 year old with a career OPS of .955 and 381 HRs with a .300+ batting average won't finish top 20.

FYI... At Yankees Stadium, in 122 games, 484 AB, 88 R, 31 HR, 87 RBI, .283 is right in line with his career average. My opinion is that he pressed too hard especially in the beginning which resulted in subpar numbers compared to his career average. We'll see I guess.


So his career stats at Yankee Stadium are right in line with how he actually produced... but you expect more?

And I didn't say he wouldn't be top 20, I said he's a borderline first round pick which is around 10th or 11th.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 03, 2005 7:01 pm

LBJackal wrote:
Yoda wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
red wrote:I go Beltran #3; Pujols, Arod (true 5 cats, and I think that average has to get better); then Beltran. I wouldn't take Vlad in front of Beltran simply because Vlad looks like he's limping every time he walks back to the dugout. Scares the heck out of me.


Red - what would you say if I told you Arod wasnt even a top 10 hitter last yr, and he barely made the top 15 overall? You would probably say he had a down yr, right? But what if you looked at his road splits while he was in TEX? Those numbers suggest precisely what you saw from him last yr. The park affect in TEX had a massive impact on Arod, and if you think he will return to the type of numbers he had in Arlington you're kidding yourself.


Arod was a top 10 fantasy player even after a subpar year. He needed some time to adjust. He was not very good in the beginning portion of the season. I expect him to step it up big time again in 05.


Well if you're expecting MORE out of A-Rod, I think you're in trouble. I think his production will take a hit this year; he's lucky he had those 28 SB's or he would have been a complete bust. I can't see him getting 20 this year. He's a borderline first rounder IMO... I'd take him around 10th or 11th overall. But I doubt he'll ever get that far because people remember the amazing park he played in while with Texas, and the fact he used to qualify at SS. If not for his 5 years or so of being the consensus #1 pick he probably wouldn't be a for sure first rounder, let alone top 3 or 4 pick which lots of people have him pegged for. But that's a good thing IMO, I'd rather have a better chance at the top players by having others snag A-Rod too early.


That is a bold move predicting that a 29 year old with a career OPS of .955 and 381 HRs with a .300+ batting average won't finish top 20.

FYI... At Yankees Stadium, in 122 games, 484 AB, 88 R, 31 HR, 87 RBI, .283 is right in line with his career average. My opinion is that he pressed too hard especially in the beginning which resulted in subpar numbers compared to his career average. We'll see I guess.


So his career stats at Yankee Stadium are right in line with how he actually produced... but you expect more?

And I didn't say he wouldn't be top 20, I said he's a borderline first round pick which is around 10th or 11th.


Communication breakdown... I misread the 20 SB as top 20... I said his numbers should be better this year than last year.
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Postby chicksdigdalongball » Thu Feb 03, 2005 8:17 pm

Beltran is a stud, and a rare player that can pop big numbers in several categories.
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Postby Tony Clark is my son » Thu Feb 03, 2005 9:08 pm

Beltran is overrated. He does what Bobby Abreu does EVERY YEAR, but Bobby goes unnoticed. Don't get me wrong, Beltran's postseason was unimaginably good, but the thing that scares me is his .267 average. (Abreu consistantly hits .300)

As for A-Rod, I think just by looking at the stats, one could assume that he wouldn't do better. But if you watched A-Rod, you'd understand why people think he'll do better. He was clearly LOST for almost the whole season until the last month. Stats don't show it, but watching him daily makes it clear.
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