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why so high on Beltran?

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Postby jskidder » Thu Feb 03, 2005 1:42 pm

what makes anyone think beltran will even sniff 40 hrs? i doubt he will hit 30. he has played in hitters parks all his career and last year was the first time he has ever hit 30. and i attribute part of that to the lineup protection he had in houston. now he moves to a pitchers park where he has to be the man to carry the team? i think around 27 hrs sounds right. and i doubt omar will want his big investment running all the time. my projection is .270/27/120 with about 25 swipes. if you want him in the first take him. i'll pass.
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Postby Dark Knight » Thu Feb 03, 2005 2:13 pm

jskidder wrote:what makes anyone think beltran will even sniff 40 hrs? i doubt he will hit 30. he has played in hitters parks all his career and last year was the first time he has ever hit 30. and i attribute part of that to the lineup protection he had in houston. now he moves to a pitchers park where he has to be the man to carry the team? i think around 27 hrs sounds right. and i doubt omar will want his big investment running all the time. my projection is .270/27/120 with about 25 swipes. if you want him in the first take him. i'll pass.


I agree. This is the worse hitter's park team that Beltran has been a member of, in his young career. His power numbers will be way down this season, making him a mid to late 1st rounder. Not the #1 pick :-t .
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 03, 2005 2:24 pm

Dark Knight wrote:
jskidder wrote:what makes anyone think beltran will even sniff 40 hrs? i doubt he will hit 30. he has played in hitters parks all his career and last year was the first time he has ever hit 30. and i attribute part of that to the lineup protection he had in houston. now he moves to a pitchers park where he has to be the man to carry the team? i think around 27 hrs sounds right. and i doubt omar will want his big investment running all the time. my projection is .270/27/120 with about 25 swipes. if you want him in the first take him. i'll pass.


I agree. This is the worse hitter's park team that Beltran has been a member of, in his young career. His power numbers will be way down this season, making him a mid to late 1st rounder. Not the #1 pick :-t .


His BA and HRs have an inverse relationship. As long as you guys are projecting 25-30 HRs, then you also have to project a .300+ BA. Its basically a wash. The real question is do you expect him to run or not.
I think his value absolutely increases by going to a pitchers park - it forces him to put the ball in play, increasing his BA, which in turn gets him on base, which in turn increases the opportunity for him to run.
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Postby umcsom » Thu Feb 03, 2005 3:04 pm

I guess the biggest worry I have is that beltran's OPS last year was .915. That was good for 24th in the league. We all know that RBI and Runs are very much luck after about 110 (unless you are manny, pujols). I think with my number 1 is Pujols without a doubt. His numbers are just gaudy compared to anybody except for Bonds. And lets face it, unless you have crawford, podsednick, pierre et al. there is little hope to do better than 3-4th in stolen bases. I do agree that beltran has 30/30 written all over him but lew ford who you can pick up in the 11-12 round has 20/25 in him this year. I don't think beltran's numbers justify being number 1.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 03, 2005 5:08 pm

You can't put too much stock in Beltran's batting average in 04. He was clearly unlucky and I expect him to hit around .300.

The ONLY thing that I question is whether he runs or not. I know many people mentioned that the Mutts paid for a 5 category player and that he is an exceptionally good base stealer but... I just have a hard time believing that you would let your biggest investment in franchise history to run around... Then again, Arod ran plenty last season so... That would be my only concern. He will get his 30 HRs and .300 average with plenty of runs and rbis. I just don't know what to expecct from the SB departmen. If anyone can tell me why he will run, then I'm willing to listen.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 03, 2005 5:22 pm

Yoda wrote: If anyone can tell me why he will run, then I'm willing to listen.


Well, for one, they have insurance on his contract in case he gets injured - similar to Mo Vaugn. Id say that alone says they will run him without worry.
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Thu Feb 03, 2005 5:32 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Yoda wrote: If anyone can tell me why he will run, then I'm willing to listen.


Well, for one, they have insurance on his contract in case he gets injured - similar to Mo Vaugn. Id say that alone says they will run him without worry.


That, and why would you pay that much and then shut down an entire facet of what attracted you to the guy in the first place?
Additionally, and this is just my opinion, but it seems the Mets have finally done what they should do in that park and built a team based on pitching, defense and speed.
With guys like Reyes, Matsui, Beltran, Wright and Cameron (if he stays :-o) and Randolph managing, I don't see them sitting back and playing station-to-station.
I personally hope Beltran doesn't try swinging for the fences. If he concentrates on contact he can clearly top .300 (.306 in '01, .307 in '03).
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Postby curious_george_43545 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 5:32 pm

His BA and HRs have an inverse relationship. As long as you guys are projecting 25-30 HRs, then you also have to project a .300+ BA. Its basically a wash. The real question is do you expect him to run or not.
I think his value absolutely increases by going to a pitchers park - it forces him to put the ball in play, increasing his BA, which in turn gets him on base, which in turn increases the opportunity for him to run






Exactly Cornbread...I'm jsut now in the late first round of my draft and I had the 2nd overall pick and I went with Beltran after number 1 was Pujols. I expect around 290/110 runs/110 RBI's/29 homers/43 steals not to mention it's a keeper league and not only is he improving he's 27. I think he was ideal since he's one of the few 5 tool players and hes young and still improving. Hard passing on Vlad and Arod though.
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Postby red » Thu Feb 03, 2005 5:40 pm

curious_george_43545 wrote:His BA and HRs have an inverse relationship. As long as you guys are projecting 25-30 HRs, then you also have to project a .300+ BA. Its basically a wash. The real question is do you expect him to run or not.
I think his value absolutely increases by going to a pitchers park - it forces him to put the ball in play, increasing his BA, which in turn gets him on base, which in turn increases the opportunity for him to run






Exactly Cornbread...I'm jsut now in the late first round of my draft and I had the 2nd overall pick and I went with Beltran after number 1 was Pujols. I expect around 290/110 runs/110 RBI's/29 homers/43 steals not to mention it's a keeper league and not only is he improving he's 27. I think he was ideal since he's one of the few 5 tool players and hes young and still improving. Hard passing on Vlad and Arod though.


I go Beltran #3; Pujols, Arod (true 5 cats, and I think that average has to get better); then Beltran. I wouldn't take Vlad in front of Beltran simply because Vlad looks like he's limping every time he walks back to the dugout. Scares the heck out of me.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 03, 2005 6:00 pm

red wrote:I go Beltran #3; Pujols, Arod (true 5 cats, and I think that average has to get better); then Beltran. I wouldn't take Vlad in front of Beltran simply because Vlad looks like he's limping every time he walks back to the dugout. Scares the heck out of me.


Red - what would you say if I told you Arod wasnt even a top 10 hitter last yr, and he barely made the top 15 overall? You would probably say he had a down yr, right? But what if you looked at his road splits while he was in TEX? Those numbers suggest precisely what you saw from him last yr. The park affect in TEX had a massive impact on Arod, and if you think he will return to the type of numbers he had in Arlington you're kidding yourself.
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