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why so high on Beltran?

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Re: why so high on Beltran?

Postby Nuclear29 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 10:50 am

trevisc wrote:
umcsom wrote: I would prefer Helton over Beltran.


i'm in the same boat. Beltran is definitely a first round pick but not as high as most people rank him. He is young though and as he gets better plate dicipline I think his average could go up some. I put him in the same boat as Abreu and that's around the late 1st round- early 2nd round.


So who are the 12 guys or so you would pick ahead of him?
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:18 am

trevisc wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Beltran will hit at or close to .300 this yr, hit 30-35 hrs, steal 35-45 bases, get roughly 110 runs and will easily top 110 RBIs. You guys go ahead and draft Helton or Abreu if you think they can match those numbers.


I would draft Helton and you can enjoy your 30 extra SBs while I enjoy my 30 points higher batting average, 8-9 more homers and 20 more runs AND Rbi.

Helton will Smoke Beltran this year in fantasy value. You can take that to the bank and cash it.
I would expect their R and RBI to be similar given the lineups. I thing the question is what is more valueable, 40 pts BA or 40 SB?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:22 am

trevisc wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Beltran will hit at or close to .300 this yr, hit 30-35 hrs, steal 35-45 bases, get roughly 110 runs and will easily top 110 RBIs. You guys go ahead and draft Helton or Abreu if you think they can match those numbers.


I would draft Helton and you can enjoy your 30 extra SBs while I enjoy my 30 points higher batting average, 8-9 more homers and 20 more runs AND Rbi.

Helton will Smoke Beltran this year in fantasy value. You can take that to the bank and cash it.


trev - have you looked at Helton's numbers recently?

Is there any reason for me to think after 3 years of 30-33 HRs that Helton will spike to 40+ at this point in his career? I also have a hard time believing you seriously think Helton will score more runs and knock in more RBIs. His BA is insane - but you just told me Helton is going to post 130r/41hr/140RBI/.340BA. The only thing I can see him remotely achieving from that stat line is the .340 BA.

Either you dont think Beltran will approach 110/33/110/40/.300 or you have unrealistic expectations for Helton.
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Postby FatGuyWithAMullet » Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:59 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:I think this is just a knee jerk reaction based on last yrs stats that we see every yr. Obviously Abreu had a career yr, and now he is rated ahead of Beltran who posted his worst BA of his career? nah.

Beltran will hit at or close to .300 this yr, hit 30-35 hrs, steal 35-45 bases, get roughly 110 runs and will easily top 110 RBIs. You guys go ahead and draft Helton or Abreu if you think they can match those numbers.


I will guarantee you that if Beltran hits 30+ home runs that his average will be .280 at best.
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Postby cannonarm21 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:07 pm

Your argument is Helton over Beltran becuase you want a player that is dominant in 3 or 4 but doesn't hurt you in any. Helton does absolutely nothing in stolen bases.

Beltran is easily in my top 4. The only argument I can have vs. Abreu is Beltran's upside due to his age. He could have "one of those" years. Abreu is the model for consistency that's for sure. You know what you are getting when you draft him.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:08 pm

FatGuyWithAMullet wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:I think this is just a knee jerk reaction based on last yrs stats that we see every yr. Obviously Abreu had a career yr, and now he is rated ahead of Beltran who posted his worst BA of his career? nah.

Beltran will hit at or close to .300 this yr, hit 30-35 hrs, steal 35-45 bases, get roughly 110 runs and will easily top 110 RBIs. You guys go ahead and draft Helton or Abreu if you think they can match those numbers.


I will guarantee you that if Beltran hits 30+ home runs that his average will be .280 at best.


why? he was on pace to reach those totals in '03 while he was playing injured. Now that he's in his prime age two years later and fully healthy you are guaranteeing he wont? :-?
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Postby J35J » Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:13 pm

cannonarm21 wrote:Your argument is Helton over Beltran becuase you want a player that is dominant in 3 or 4 but doesn't hurt you in any. Helton does absolutely nothing in stolen bases.

Beltran is easily in my top 4. The only argument I can have vs. Abreu is Beltran's upside due to his age. He could have "one of those" years. Abreu is the model for consistency that's for sure. You know what you are getting when you draft him.



Do you really know what you are going to get from Abreu?? He has hit over 20hrs only 3 times in the past 7 years and only 1 time in the last 3 years. I don't know if I call that consistant, at least not power wise!!!!
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:15 pm

cannonarm21 wrote:Beltran is easily in my top 4. The only argument I can have vs. Abreu is Beltran's upside due to his age. He could have "one of those" years. Abreu is the model for consistency that's for sure. You know what you are getting when you draft him.


why was Abreu a 3rd round or later draft pick last yr then? If he is the model of consistancy and we know what we are getting from him, then why was last yr the only time he finished in the top 10?

Please - understand I targeted Abreu in my drafts last yr - I loved him in the 3rd rd - and yes, one of the things I really liked about him was his consistancy. The problem with this theory however is that he played well above his average last yr - his '04 season is the definition of a career yr. Between the '03 season and the '04 season he posted 10 more HRs, and 18 more SBs. He was on almost all my teams because I was targeting him lst yr - but there wasnt one single projection out there that had him increasing his HR and SB totals to that degree.
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Postby cannonarm21 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:17 pm

I guess I meant more the .300 avg and a regular on the 20/20 list. I do see what you are saying though.

Were the majority of Abreu's HR at home?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:23 pm

cannonarm21 wrote:Were the majority of Abreu's HR at home?


suprisingly no. 13-17. he was pretty consistant at home and on the road - which is suprising given the park he plays in.
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