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why so high on Beltran?

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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 03, 2005 6:27 am

If you don't go by what you think will happen, what do you go buy? And it's not like Beltran has never done anything that I'm expecting him to do. OPS isn't a stat in any of my leagues, and neither is BB/K. We aren't playing real baseball, we're playing fantasy baseball. Beltran gets it done and his SB's are invaluable. 50 is well within reach. That would be equal to about 100 HR on top of the 25+ HR he'll already give you. Maybe more, I don't know the exact values of them. But it's a lot. I can put up with a .280 BA in return for that.
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Postby umcsom » Thu Feb 03, 2005 6:32 am

Pedantic wrote:
umcsom wrote:I have abreu higher than beltran on my charts. I guess boras has even convinced the fantasy world of how great beltran is.


So you projected a regression for Beltran but not Abreu? How convenient.


I didn't make any projections of numbers this year. I only stated I think Abreu's year will be better. Either way I don't think either of these players deserve the overall number one pick in a traditional draft format.
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Postby ukrneal » Thu Feb 03, 2005 7:14 am

You want numbers? ok.

Beltran has a high probablity of 130-40-110-40-.300. End of story. That's why some are drafting him so high.At a minimum, you're pretty much guarenteed 30/30.

If you are looking for somone who is dominant in 3-4 categories, as written in the first post, you'll get it. He was 12th in HR, 4th in SB, and 5th in Runs last year.

In any case, he seems as sure a thing to me as Helton. The only thing Helton is better at is Ave. HR were fewer than Beltran (and will likely stay that way), RBI were fewer (and I would expect him to have more than Beltran), and Runs were fewer (I would also expect that to stay that way). So looking at 2004 numbers, Beltran is the better pick. If you compare the past three years, it doesn't change much. RBI's are around equal, Runs are about equal, and HR goes to Beltran (they're about equal, but I think Beltran will stay a few above Helton). That leaves Ave and SB. Beltran crushes Helton in SB, and average difference is reduced significantly, though Helton still pretty much crushes nearly everyone. SO fantasy wise, the conclusion is that both are great players and both will probably be first rounders.

I think you know what you get with both these guys when you draft them. And the same with Abreu. And Corey Patterson could fit this mold as well, but so far has not.
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Postby crapshooter » Thu Feb 03, 2005 8:14 am

I think Beltran's fantasy value is over rated because of the playoff series he had last year when it seemed he could hit anything. Too bad that won't be the case during the season.
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Postby kentx12 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 8:18 am

LBJackal wrote: I wouldn't blame somebody for taking Pujols or Vlad over Beltran, but personally Beltran would be my #1 pick.



Agreed. I have allready taken him first overall in my 1st draft this year. I was extreamly happy to have that pick to get him.
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Re: why so high on Beltran?

Postby trevisc » Thu Feb 03, 2005 9:03 am

umcsom wrote: I would prefer Helton over Beltran.


i'm in the same boat. Beltran is definitely a first round pick but not as high as most people rank him. He is young though and as he gets better plate dicipline I think his average could go up some. I put him in the same boat as Abreu and that's around the late 1st round- early 2nd round.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Feb 03, 2005 10:06 am

I think this is just a knee jerk reaction based on last yrs stats that we see every yr. Obviously Abreu had a career yr, and now he is rated ahead of Beltran who posted his worst BA of his career? nah.

Beltran will hit at or close to .300 this yr, hit 30-35 hrs, steal 35-45 bases, get roughly 110 runs and will easily top 110 RBIs. You guys go ahead and draft Helton or Abreu if you think they can match those numbers.
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Postby SPEEDY » Thu Feb 03, 2005 10:14 am

He is going into his prime. Don't even bother looking at career stats cause Beltran has been stuck in Kansas City and he still put up those numbers. The kid has sick numbers and has potential to put up a 40-40 year with a good lineup around him (better then KC anyways)

He stole 28 bags after the allstar break and was not caught stealing once. That shows right there how smart he is. Vlad is the only other player I would take over him given his potential and lineup protection. Not saying protection is great but better then in KC and look what he managed to do there every year.
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Postby jeff926 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 10:44 am

beltran is amazing. the only guy that i would want to take over him would be arod, because the dude had an off year and he still had sick stats:
36 HR, 106 RBI, 112 R, 28 SB, and a .286 BA (one point higher than his worst year in 99)
that being said, beltran will have an awesome year and he is just as valuable as any other player
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Postby trevisc » Thu Feb 03, 2005 10:49 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Beltran will hit at or close to .300 this yr, hit 30-35 hrs, steal 35-45 bases, get roughly 110 runs and will easily top 110 RBIs. You guys go ahead and draft Helton or Abreu if you think they can match those numbers.


I would draft Helton and you can enjoy your 30 extra SBs while I enjoy my 30 points higher batting average, 8-9 more homers and 20 more runs AND Rbi.

Helton will Smoke Beltran this year in fantasy value. You can take that to the bank and cash it.
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