why so high on Beltran? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

why so high on Beltran?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

why so high on Beltran?

Postby umcsom » Thu Feb 03, 2005 3:43 am

Hi everyone. I have been looking for a site like this for a while. Everyone one here seems pretty thoughtful in their decisions, instead of just argumentative (sp?). I have been lurking for a while and agree with a lot of things that have been said. However, I don't get why most people are ranking beltran in their top 5 picks. I understand he steals bases and hits homeruns. When I am looking for a top 10 fantasy baseball player I want someone who is dominant in 3-4 categories and doesn't hurt me in any. Beltran's Avg. is not helpful. I would prefer Helton over Beltran. He routinely has higher R, HR, RBI, and his AVG is amazing. I don't think that Helton is a top 5 pick but I don't feel beltran is either. What am I missing? And if HR and SB are that important why aren't we talking about Corey Patterson as a must have person also?
Last edited by umcsom on Thu Feb 03, 2005 3:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
umcsom
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 21
Joined: 3 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby davidmarver » Thu Feb 03, 2005 3:51 am

Couldn't agree more. I think Beltran provides more to an actual major league team than he does to a fantasy team. Defense is not seen anywhere in fantasy baseball...which is a strength of Beltran's game.

You have to realize, though, that there are much fewer players who steal 30 bases each year than hit 30 homeruns. Beltran is a productive player, someone you'd want as your second most productive, in HR and RBI, while stealing those 30 bases you normally get from over-valuing Juan Pierre.

I agree with you, however. I would not touch Beltran until, at the best, the late first round. I always feel your top pick has to be a player who produces a lot of runs while hitting for a high average, something Beltran does not do. Plus, I hate the Mets from a fantasy standpoint. You always see solid fantasy players drift into the fantasy oblivion when they join the Mets, ala Mo Vaughn, Cliff Floyd, etc.
Image
davidmarver
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 ChampionLucky Ladders Weekly WinnerTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 6154
Joined: 11 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 5.5 Hole

Postby umcsom » Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:00 am

I have abreu higher than beltran on my charts. I guess boras has even convinced the fantasy world of how great beltran is.
umcsom
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 21
Joined: 3 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby davidmarver » Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:05 am

Yeah, I have Abreu higher than Beltran as well. There are a handful of better fantasy outfielders.
Image
davidmarver
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 ChampionLucky Ladders Weekly WinnerTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 6154
Joined: 11 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 5.5 Hole

Postby giants8307 » Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:06 am

davidmarver wrote:Couldn't agree more. I think Beltran provides more to an actual major league team than he does to a fantasy team. Defense is not seen anywhere in fantasy baseball...which is a strength of Beltran's game.

You have to realize, though, that there are much fewer players who steal 30 bases each year than hit 30 homeruns. Beltran is a productive player, someone you'd want as your second most productive, in HR and RBI, while stealing those 30 bases you normally get from over-valuing Juan Pierre.

I agree with you, however. I would not touch Beltran until, at the best, the late first round. I always feel your top pick has to be a player who produces a lot of runs while hitting for a high average, something Beltran does not do. Plus, I hate the Mets from a fantasy standpoint. You always see solid fantasy players drift into the fantasy oblivion when they join the Mets, ala Mo Vaughn, Cliff Floyd, etc.


I would agree that beltran is overrated, and is better suited to the end of the first/beiginning second, but I'll still pick him in the top four. The reason is, I can then trade him for "lower" firstrounder like manny or helton, who I would prefer, and get an extra player out of the deal. I don't like to pass on over-valued palyers, I like to trade them.
Image
giants8307
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1942
Joined: 21 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Washington, DC

Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:15 am

Beltran's SB potential (I could easily see him getting 50) along with his ability to get on base, score runs, hit HR's, and get lots of RBI puts him at the top. Some say Beltran's BA hurts them, but really I woudln't expect it to be lower than .280 which isn't detrimental to your team. Nobody mentions that Pujols hurts your team by not getting any SB's. That's just as bad as Beltran having a .280 BA. I wouldn't blame somebody for taking Pujols or Vlad over Beltran, but personally Beltran would be my #1 pick.
Image

"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"

"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
LBJackal
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 9196
Joined: 1 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Hotel Yorba

Postby Pedantic » Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:37 am

umcsom wrote:I have abreu higher than beltran on my charts. I guess boras has even convinced the fantasy world of how great beltran is.


So you projected a regression for Beltran but not Abreu? How convenient. Beltran isn't Adam Dunn. He probably isn't going to be batting under .250 anytime soon. The power/speed combination he offers far outweighs any negative value in average. Even Mike Cameron has some value and look at his average.

Looking at three-year weighted averages, Beltran has averaged five more runs, eight more homers, three more RBI, and eight more stolen bases, while Abreu has only out-hit Beltran by 21 points.
Image
Pedantic
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicEagle EyeCafe Musketeer
Posts: 6725
Joined: 5 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Funny movie quote that everyone knows

Postby ukrneal » Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:59 am

What if Beltran had a .285 average? Would that change anything? That's his career average.

The reason he is so high is twofold: First, he's coming into his prime, peak years, which means he may have even better stats than he has put up so far (which are already pretty amazing). Second, his low average last year was low even for him. Part of that was adjusting to the pitching. But he has hit over .300 in the past and there is no reason not to project his at least getting close to that.

Since more people seem to draft potential over track record, it's possible he's overrated. However, in 2003, he was probably the most valuable contributor to a fantasy squad (and that with only 141 games), so I think it is safe to say he could do it again.
ukrneal
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 2322
Joined: 29 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby HOOTIE » Thu Feb 03, 2005 5:00 am

I don't think Beltrans overrated in fantasy. How many guys will go 30/30? As great as Manny is, Beltran has out earned him 4 straight years. While i don't agree on Beltran 1st pick, i think late 1st round/2nd round is also extreme.
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15116
(Past Year: 292)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

Postby umcsom » Thu Feb 03, 2005 6:16 am

But look deeper into their career stats:

Beltran: OPS .843 BB/K 0.58 (granted this has dramatically improved) AVG .284

Abreu: OPS .929 BB/K 0.84 (his also is improving) AVG .305

Even though these are rarely used in roto I think they show that Abreu is an overall better hitter, which should mean better numbers in 4 out of the 5 traditional roto categories if all else is even.

What I keep hearing is "potential" and "I think" With the first overall pick I want to KNOW what I am getting.

And I don't think that just because beltran is 28 this year that means he is going to go crazy hitting the ball. I think age is more important for the fringe to good players than the star players. Otherwise can you imagine the numbers Pujols is going to put up?
umcsom
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 21
Joined: 3 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2015 MLB season starts in 4:13 hours
(and 89 days)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact